Pep Guardiola’s foray into English football was characterised by a scintillating 10-match winning run. Manchester City seemed unstoppable as Guardiola announced his arrival in style and he was applauded for the way he adapted to the Premier League like a duck taking to water for the first time. The immediate dominance was so jaw-dropping that it soon became a question of whether the league would adapt to Guardiola.
Fast forward five months and a disconsolate and dispirited Guardiola sat on the bench at Everton, staring at his shoes while Ronald Koeman’s side steamrolled City and handed the Catalan manager his heaviest defeat. “You’re getting sacked in the morning,” chanted the Goodison Park faithful as Guardiola shifted uneasily in his seat.
This was not written in the script. There are still 17 games to go before a champion is crowned in May. However, Guardiola has already ruled City out of the title race. “10 is a lot of points,” he remarked as Chelsea extended their lead at the top of the table.
£174m – that’s how much City spent in the summer when Guardiola arrived from Bayern Munich. No other team had spent more than £150m. Only rivals Manchester United and Chelsea had spent over £100m. Since Financial Fair Play was introduced, City have spent more than a billion pounds in the market.
So where did it all go wrong for Guardiola?
An ageing squad has not adapted to Guardiola’s tactics
This has been the biggest criticism of Guardiola in spite of the massive investment over the summer. He may have inherited world class squads at Barcelona and Bayern Munich but his shoddy attempts to fix this City squad will certainly be analysed at the end of the season.
City’s defence has been ripped apart time and again this season and it comes as no surprise that they have conceded the most goals (26) among the top six battling it out for the title. The fact that he emphasises on playing out from the back also sees the need for good ball-playing defenders with the tactical know-how to take up ideal positions on the pitch.
His over-reliance on full-backs to get the job done has done more harm to City than good. Two games that come to mind are the games against Leicester City and Everton – both of whom scored four past a hapless Claudio Bravo.
Against the Foxes, Guardiola deployed Bacary Sagna, a young John Stones and Aleksandar Kolarov in a three-man defence against a side that played two quick strikers up front and relied on swift counter-attacks. Sagna will be 34 next month while Kolarov is 31. Neither of them have pace to burn anymore – which is why Jamie Vardy grabbed a hat-trick while Islam Slimani grabbed two assists.
At Goodison Park, he deployed a back four with 31-year-old Gael Clichy also added to the mix. In a surprising turn of events, yet another full-back Pablo Zabaleta (aged 32) was slotted into a defensive midfield position. With Fernandinho suspended and Ilkay Gundogan injured, Guardiola has had to make do with 33-year-old Yaya Toure who is also past his best since his 24-goal return in the 2013/14 campaign.
Koeman saw his chance and took it with aplomb, fielding a back three so he could win the midfield battle. Ross Barkley and 18-year-old Tom Davies put in terrific shifts and Everton capitalised with all shots on target finding the back of the net.
While City are a team in transition, it’s hard to understand why Guardiola did not revamp the back line. With all the attacking talent at his disposal, there is a limit to how much they can affect a game if the side leaks goals at the other end.
Claudio Bravo for Joe Hart was not a wise move
Fans were shocked when Joe Hart was told he would no longer be an automatic pick to start under Guardiola as he planned to play from the back. He needed a goalkeeper who was comfortable with the ball at his feet. Enter Claudio Bravo who had been Barcelona's first choice goalkeeper in La Liga.
However, Bravo has proven to be ineffective in the one area Hart excelled in the Premier League – stopping shots! The primary function of a goalkeeper is to stop shots on goal and, sadly, Bravo has not done enough to convince that he is indeed a “shot stopper”. In fact, he has one of the worst save success rates in the league in the last eight years.
Bravo has made only 31 saves in the league so far – much lower than the likes of Petr Cech (56) and David De Gea (46) who have faced a similar number of shots per game this season. In contrast, Hart, playing for eighth-placed Torino in Serie A, has made 60 saves this season!
There are no real complaints regarding Bravo’s abilities on set pieces but the Chilean goalkeeper has still not perfected the role of the sweeper-keeper. While that can also be alluded to the weak defence in front of him, his presence outside the six-yard box does not inspire confidence. His wayward distribution and poor decision-making when passing under intense pressure also prove Guardiola’s strategy of playing out from the back is far from being perfected.
To summarize, Guardiola has attempted to replace an experienced goalkeeper with a player who he feels should be his 11th outfield player – and failed miserably.
Has City’s attack lost its appetite?
Most Premier League managers would give their right arm for the attacking lineup Guardiola has at his disposal. Yet, in spite of a sizzling start to the league season, the attack has lost its way and City’s goal scoring rate has dipped.
Sergio Aguero has blown hot and cold this season. His two suspensions have seen him miss a chunk of games and Guardiola had also benched him on a few occasions. Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne, who cost City a combined total of £104m, have scored only seven league goals between them.
David Silva has scored just once. The jury is out on new signings Nolito and Leroy Sane who haven’t seen enough minutes while Kelechi Iheanacho is too young to shoulder the goalscoring burden.
City have played well only in flashes and the midfield has struggled to create opportunities for the forward players. Liverpool, Tottenham and United have taken more shots on goal compared to City while Arsenal and Chelsea have been more effective in spite of fewer shots on goal.
Once a team that used to score more goals than any other Premier League side in the title-winning years, City are behind the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea after 21 games.
What next for Guardiola?
Guardiola’s honeymoon period is now a long-forgotten memory. His knowing smile and charm in press conferences have been replaced with an irate demeanour of a man who just doesn’t look like he is enjoying his football. Once an animated figure on the touchline, the sombre mood on the bench is a stark contrast to his early years as a manager.
Of course, City are not going to sack Guardiola but his future at the club may not be completely in their hands. Back in Barcelona, Guardiola took a year-long sabbatical to relieve the stress he went through in his final season at the Camp Nou.
Therein lies the problem for City because the Catalan boss is known to be a very hard-working individual whose life revolves around football. The apprehension that he may walk away yet again to recharge his batteries could prove to be detrimental to City's progress.
Not all is lost, though. But Guardiola must fix this squad soon before the Champions League knockout rounds test his squad. But first, he must focus on his next game – against Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham Hotspur; the first team to beat his side and ruin his perfect start in England.
