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Reigning World and European champions Spain take on a confident Croatian side in their final group game at the PGE Arena in Gdansk. Both sides are unbeaten in the tournament so far and have collected similar results against Italy and Republic of Ireland. Spain returned to their delightful best in their last game in a characteristic 4-0 mauling of Ireland. The fact that a goal-starved Fernando Torres came to the party, not once but twice, was pretty much icing on the cake for Del Bosque’s men. Croatia, meanwhile, played out of their skins in a hard-earned draw against 2006 world champions Italy.
The two teams are level on points in the Group C standings, although Spain sit on top of the pile courtesy their superior goal-difference. Both teams will head into the game with the knowledge that a defeat for either one of them could plausibly mean the end of the road in Euro 2012. Italy are sure-shot favorites to overcome Ireland in the other fixture of the night and a comprehensive victory for the Nerazzuris will be enough to dump the Croatians out in case of a low-scoring draw in Gdansk.
Pedigree
Spain
The Spanish bandwagon rolled into action against Italy with Cesc Fabregas playing as the lone man upfront, ahead of Torres, Negredo and Llorente. This tactical ploy backfired for Spain as they failed to get behind the Italian three-man defense. Del Bosque realized his mistake and started a natural striker in the form of Torres in the next match against Ireland. The move paid off immediately as the team looked a completely different unit altogether, showcasing their fabled passing game and enjoying near total domination over the Irish. They’ll look to carry on their momentum and if they can unravel their beautiful game once again, it’ll be very hard to for the Croats to contain them and get anything out of the game.
Croatia
Slaven Bilic’s side has been a revelation of sorts in this year’s competition. Although, Croatia is ranked No. 8 in the FIFA World Rankings, but they didn’t quite enjoy the bookmakers’ support coming into the tournament. At most, they were being regarded as outsiders for this summers’ extravaganza. They have played some very fascinating football which stems out of freedom, flair and hunger and desire to excel and defy all odds. After coasting past Ireland in their opening game, they justified their impressive win with a hard-earned and fully deserved draw against Italy. Defensively, they are well-organised and will hope to hit Spain on the counter whenever they get possession of the ball in their own half.
Recent form
Spain
26 May 2012 | Serbia | ||
30 May 2012 | South Korea | ||
3 June 2012 | |||
10 June 2012 | |||
14 June 2012 |
Croatia
February 29, 2012 | 1 – 3 | ||
May 25, 2012 | 3 – 1 | ||
June 2, 2012 | 1 – 1 | ||
June 10, 2012 | 3 – 1 | ||
June 14, 2012 | 1 – 1 |
Probable line-ups and formations
SPAIN CasillasArbeloa, Ramos, Pique, AlbaBusquets, AlonsoSilva, Xavi, IniestaTorres | CROATIA PletikosaSrna, Corluka, Schildenfeld, StrinicRakitic,Vukojevic, Modric, PerisicMandzukic Jelavic |
Spain
Del Bosque is expected to start with the same 4-2-3-1 formation he put out against Ireland with Torres playing as the lone striker, supported by Iniesta and Silva from the flanks. Xavi, who completed a record 136 passes against Ireland, will be the primary playmaker in the center with Alonso and Busquets taking up their usual roles as deep-lying midfielders. The defense will remain unaltered and the supporting full-backs Alba and Arbeloa will have to counter the threat of Perisic and Mandzukic on the flanks.
Croatia
Slaven Bilic tweaked his formation after half-time against Italy, asking Mandzukic to play a more withdrawn role, more like a tetraquista as Jelavic was left on his own in the front. Otherwise, Croatia are well suited to the traditional 4-4-2 formation with Vukojevic being the more defensive of the two central midfielders. Captain Darijo Srna fulfills the duties of a right back as well as a defensive winger providing overalapping support as and when needed. Schildenfeld is expected to keep his place ahead of the experienced Josip Simunic.
Key Players
Spain- Fernando Torres
The Chelsea hotshot will hold the key to Spain’s fortunes in this match. Torres returned to his destructive best against Ireland, bagging two poacher’s efforts as the whole of Spain heaved a sigh of relief. His form and finishing will have to be from the top drawer if Spain are to convert the few and far chances they are going to create against a very bullish Croatian defense.
Croatia- Mario Mandzukic
The tournament’s joint top-scorer is the man to watch out for in this match. His explosive finishing and aerial threat will be difficult to manage for a Spanish team which is not regarded amongst the best in the air. If the Wolfsburg striker can carry his brilliant run of form to Gdansk, Croatia might have a chance to upstage the much-fancied Spanish armada.
Group C Permutations and Combinations
| GROUP C AS IT STANDS | GP | W | D | L | GD | PTS | |
| 1 |  SPAIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 2 |  CROATIA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 |  ITALY | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 |  IRELAND | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
For those of you still messing with the maths and numbers, here’s the deal. With Spain and Croatia level on four points each, an outright victory for either will send them through to the quarter-finals as group-leaders. The loser will crash out if Italy manage maximum points against Ireland. If by the magic of destiny, Italy, Spain and Croatia end up with 5 points after the two matches, UEFA’s tie-breaker will be applied. As all teams would have played out draws between each other, the no. of goals scored amongst the matches of only these three teams will come into question. So, anything more than 1-1 draw in Gdansk will send both Croatia and Spain through, irrespective of the outcome of the other match.
Prediction
Spain will start as favorites in this game even after Croatia’s exploits in Group C thus far. It’ll not be easy for Spain to break open the Croatian defense, but sooner or later the effortless passing game will prove too much to handle for Croatia. It’s hard to imagine either of the two teams playing for a draw and risking their chances in such a high-profile fixture. We’ll go for 2-0 win for Spain.
