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Forecasting Ballon d'Or 2018 Voting Results

Deepak P
Top 5 / Top 10
35.87K   //    13 Oct 2018, 18:15 IST

Ballon d'Or
Ballon d'Or

Ballon d'Or 2018 is around the corner and ardent football fans are vigorously debating whether it would be Mohammed Salah or Lionel Messi to win the trophy this year. It is extremely refreshing to see the fans engage in healthy banter around it while also engage in shifting the various Fan poll results to their side.

Cristiano Ronaldo is a serial winner when it comes to Ballon d'Or trophy and we could once again see him get his hands on the trophy. However, it is his former teammate in Luka Modric who is tipped to be the player to end the Ronaldo-Messi monopoly over the coveted trophy.

Here, in this article, let us try to forecast the Ballon d'Or 2018 Voting results based on the recent voting patterns in the FIFA player awards 2018 of Journalists from the countries. To go forward, let us understand the differences between the 2 awards.

  1. Voting in FIFA Football awards 2018 was done by Captain, Coach and Media Personnel from 168 countries. While in Ballon d'Or 2018, voting will be done only by the Media Personnel. This reduces the number of voters.
  2. Voters in FIFA Football awards 2018 had to vote for 3 player preferences with 5 points, 3 points and 1 point allotted for the 3 preferences in decreasing mode. While Ballon d'Or 2018 voters will have to vote for 5 player preferences with 6 points, 4 points,3 points,2 points and 1 point allotted for the 5 preferences in decreasing mode.
  3. While FIFA Football awards 2018 were selected from the list of 10 shortlisted players, Ballon d'Or 2018 will be selected from the list of 30 shortlisted football players.

Now that we have understood the differences, let us now try to forecast the Ballon d'Or 2018 Voting results step by step. Before proceeding, please understand the analysis is strictly the personal opinion of the author based on the forecasting methodology employed and will in no way be a real indication of how the journalists from different countries will vote for a player on the D-day.

If you are still with me, let's move forward.

Step 1 of forecasting: The FIFA Football awards 2018 Voters List.

To start with the forecasting, let us take the full list of FIFA Football awards 2018 voters list which has the details of who voted for whom. From the list, the voting results of coaches and captains were removed and only the voting pattern of Media personnel of 168 countries were retained. In such a scenario, the results would have come as below:

Forecasted Ballon d'Or 2018 Results - step 1
Forecasted Ballon d'Or 2018 Results - step 1

This pattern at the first step clearly shows the considerable lead in the points that Luka Modric enjoys over other players. This is exactly how the actual journalists had made their preferences 2-3 months ago. One of the prime change after that is the allegations against Cristiano Ronaldo which will make the lead in points for Luka Modric even more comfortable.

Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann

Also, the call of Antoine Griezmann to have a French footballer as the Ballon d'Or 2018 winner may sway a few votes in his favour, but the changes would not be dramatic enough to replace Luka Modric as the prime favourite.

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