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Formations
Liverpool’s initial setup:
4-3-3
Mignolet
Johnson, Toure, Agger, Enrique
Henderson, Lucas, Gerrard
Coutinho, Aspas, Downing
Liverpool setup in the last thirty minutes:
4-3-2-1
Mignolet
Johnson, Toure, Agger, Enrique
Henderson/ Allen, Lucas, Downing/ Sterling
Gerrard, Coutinho
Aspas/ Alberto
As the game moves into the end of the first half, Rodgers might revert into a 4-4-1-1. This will result in Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson occupying the wings, covered by Coutinho in the second striker role ahead of Steven Gerrard and Lucas Leiva. With Aspas occupying the lone forward role and a conformity that Liverpool will hold onto possession, it should beset the Stoke defence into spreading out and opening up gaps that the Reds will exploit to their advantage.
The second half could be a different story for both teams should either of the two chose to go all guns blazing and close out the game. Liverpool will flock into a 4-3-3 or a 4-3-2-1 formation with either Gerrard or Coutinho being handed out free roles.
I expect Stoke to constantly switch between 4-3-3, 4-5-1 and 4-3-2-1 depending upon the score line – the latter towards the end should they need to salvage a draw.
Key match-ups in Liverpool’s attack
Steven Gerrard versus Wilson Palacios
The Englishman’s authority in Liverpool’s attack is renowned but he should not expect it to be plain sailing against the thrifty mindset of Wilson Palacios. Gerrard will go up against a player who will do anything it takes to stop him, and win back the possession. Mark Hughes will particularly be watching this contest to ensure Stoke halt the bolt of Liverpool’s production in attack. The Stoke manager might mix and match a couple of players (Charlie Adam/ Glen Whelan) against Steven Gerrard but in the beginning, Wilson Palacios should be his first choice man marker.
Philippe Coutinho versus Erik Pieters/ Geoff Cameron
Cameron has the size and long legs while Pieters has the pace – both of whom that can go up against Philippe Coutinho. This battle will be crucial in the entire outcome of the game should Hughes decide who he wants to start as his left back.
Would he prefer a lanky midfielder that won’t be shy in lunging into tackles or would he want a player of the same velocity as Philippe Coutinho to be guarding him? Whatever it is, Mark Hughes will need to be ascertain as to what will eventuate into a battle that he hopes for his team not to lose.
His counterpart Brendan Rodgers will hope for Coutinho to badger either of Stoke’s fullbacks with assistance from Iago Aspas or Stewart Downing. Liverpool’s proneness to rotate the lineup throughout the game around Coutinho as the focal point could prove to be the game changer.
Possible changes
Two possibilities could evolve around the uncertainties of Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing in the starting lineup. If Rodgers decides to submit a team sheet seldom focused on dispatching Stoke with quickness, Raheem Sterling and Joe Allen could get the nod ahead.
But I expect the Ulsterman to be more pertinent towards a balanced lineup. Should this falter, Liverpool can make changes in the second half to demolish Stoke’s lackadaisical game of football.
However, it is safe to go with a team with enough physical power than one with hardly any of it. In a game of probability, proceeding with the latter will probably result in Stoke taking a first half lead than the former.
Analysis of the opponent’s defence
Stoke City’s back four is revered for its aerial superiority. To counter that, Liverpool’s have showcased its under-reliance on crosses towards the later part of last season that will help them tackle this problem with short-range passes to unlock the opponent’s defense.
If both Jermaine Pennant and Marc Muniesa were to start, Liverpool might be helped by the pair’s fluctuation in running back to defend. This might be the key element that the Reds will want to use as the weapon in overpowering a Stoke City defense slow on its feet in retrospect to Liverpool’s fast-paced mode of attack.
Stoke will be looking to clear the ball as often as possible instead of keeping possession which they will lose eventually. Going up against a team ancillary on set pieces and long balls, Brendan Rodgers and his Liverpool contingent will need to win the possession back and be careful before dispelling into conceding unnecessary free kicks.
Possible substitutions
Brendan Rodgers will switch between Joe Allen, Raheem Sterling, Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson. It remains to be seen if he will hand out a chance to Fabio Borini before Luis Alberto, given the possibility that Iago Aspas plays a similar game to the latter.
Should the game be even heading into the 70th minute, I would bet on Rodgers slotting in a couple of wingers (Ibe and Sterling) for Downing and Henderson, and bringing on Allen towards the end to keep the ball in Liverpool’s feet.
Prediction
Liverpool 2 – Stoke 0
As Anfield will be roaring to an unfathomable decibel and in continuance with its pre-season momentum, Liverpool might be hard to stop against Stoke. Simon Mignolet might also enjoy an easy first game at the helm of his first Premier League appearance for the club.
