The Manchester derby is upon us, two of the biggest clubs in the world, spearheaded by two of the most successful managers in world football in the past decade. What adds more spice to the event is the fact that the two of them can’t stand each other, might as well be the icing on the cake.
Let’s analyse three factors that could prove to be vital in determining the outcome of this hotly-anticipated fixture:
#1 Counter Guardiola’s pressing
There are two qualities that one would always associate with Guardiola-coached teams – possession and goals. Whether it’s the tiki-taka playing Barcelona team starring Xavi, Iniesta, and Messi or be it the Bayern Munich team (attempting to replicate the tiki-taka style) consisting of Lahm, Xabi Alonso and Thiago Alcantara – keeping hold of the ball at all times is paramount when playing for pep.
“What I want, my desire is to have 100% possession”
This obsession with possession is a way for his teams to exert total dominance over the opposition. If the opposition barely gets hold of the ball, then it becomes difficult from an attacking point of view to muster coherent sequences that might threaten the goalkeeper.
One way of keeping hold of maximum possession is having midfielders capable of executing the ‘passing carousel’ philosophy that ‘Pep’ demands. So you can argue that with the likes of Xavi-Iniesta-Busquets or Xabi Alonso-Lahm-Thiago Alcantara patrolling his midfield has always been vital for his success as a manager.
Pressing Game
However, another important aspect of Guardiola’s philosophy that enables his teams to hog the ball is the high pressure pressing that they execute on the opposition at all times. Guardiola famously implemented a ‘six-second rule’ during his Barca days in which his team had to regain the ball in a mere six seconds after conceding it. When watching videos of Barcelona, the player who regains the ball doesn’t get pressed rather the guy who receives the first pass.
Now Guardiola’s pressing strategy comes into full view. When the second pass is made you will find that either the holding midfielder (Busquets or Vidal) try to intercept it thus retaining possession or the midfield trying to overwhelm the opposition by creating a 1v3 situation.
This way the ball is recovered early and the opposition has very little chance of launching an attack. That’s why unlike Mourinho, Guardiola does not prefer to have a midfield enforcer like Claude Makelele or Nemanja Matic in his team. Instead, he prefers midfielders with high levels of anticipation and intelligence like Busquets or Vidal through which he can execute his high pressing strategy.
Counter the Guardiola midfield
It’s unlikely that Mourinho will be too fussed with Manchester City retaining the ball during the derby. Mourinho led teams are tactically disciplined and very hard to break down, even if they rarely see the ball. But Manchester City’s high pressing can prove to be a trickier proposition altogether.
There are a couple of ways this can be dealt with. One is by taking advantage of the huge height advantage that Manchester United now hold over City by launching aerial balls into midfield and attack thus allowing Fellaini, Pogba or Ibrahimovic to hold the ball up and allow the rest of the team to step forward in support.
Another way is by employing midfielders with the ability to carry the ball forward. It’s here that the presence of either Henrikh Mkhitaryan or Jesse Lingard in the starting-11 can turn out to be more beneficial than the selection of Juan Mata.
Mourinho’s success or lack of it in dealing with Manchester City’s pressing can be a vital factor in deciding the outcome of this anticipated derby.
#2 Zlatan Ibrahimovic vs. John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi
Guardiola’s teams defend in unison and it starts right from the attackers who are tasked with winning the ball as high up as possible. Since high pressing and ball retention are key aspects of the way his teams play, there is no need for a defensive leader like Nemanja Vidic or John Terry.
Instead, center backs comfortable in receiving the ball from their goalkeeper and being able to pass between the lines to the midfielders or attackers are preferred.
This means that players like Gerard Pique, Javier Mascherano or Javi Martinez, who are more known for their passing abilities rather than their defensive prowess, play an integral role under Guardiola.
John Stones, immensely talented, a defender in the Rio Ferdinand mould, had a season to forget last year. Part of an Everton team that was subpar defensively, Stones quickly became the fall guy for all of Everton’s defensive struggles.
Under Pep Guardiola’s leadership and tactical shape, however, he looks rejuvenated. John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi have looked steady, but the real test for them now awaits.
“I come to win…I don’t come to waste time…to look at the weather. I do not give up until I win”
Zlatan Effect
Enter Zlatan Ibrahimovic. When United signed the mercurial Swede, there was widespread scepticism of it being just a marketing gimmick intended to sell shirts. But those critics failed to take into account the Swede’s sheer determination and will to win.
A fantastic return of 4 goals in 5 starts has gone a long way in justifying the large investment United made in signing him even though it was a free transfer, helping United to a perfect start.
Add to the fact that a couple of those goals were achieved by overpowering two of the most physical center backs in the league – Jose Fonte and Wes Morgan – all doubts about Zlatan being able to cope with physical demands of the Premier League have been forgotten.
Under Mourinho, United’s play is more direct, as the full backs look to bomb forward at every opportunity and look to cross the ball into the box at the 6’ 5” tall Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The Premier League shows no signs of slowing down the prolific Swede and come derby day ,the outcome of the duel between Zlatan and Manchester City’s center backs could well turn out to be pivotal.
#3 Starting lineups
The starting lineups for both teams can be a big indicator in determining the outcome of this fixture. Sometimes during big derby matches, the game tends to be cagey, with both teams cancelling each other out. The outcome might depend on individual brilliance or an error.
So far Mourinho has resisted the urge of dropping either Rooney or Martial for Marcus Rashford, both of whom have been underwhelming so far. The presence of Rashford in the starting lineup could add more pace, energy, and directness to United’s attack.
Rashford has also made a case for his inclusion by impressing at every given opportunity, his latest being a brilliant hat-trick while on international duty for the U21’s. The presence of Rashford in the starting lineup can be a statement of intent from Mourinho, one that could prove to be decisive.
Guardiola has similar headaches on his plate due to the suspension of in-form striker Sergio Aguero. Aguero has scored eight goals in nine starts against Manchester United and his absence will be sorely felt.
There are two options to replace Aguero from the starting lineup – Iheanacho as a like-for-like replacement or go with Nolito as a false nine, which allows for the inclusion of newbie Leroy Sane.
Guardiola has to now make a big choice, a choice which could determine the whole outcome of the match.
