Neuer vs Ronaldo vs Messi: A complete statistical analysis of the Ballon d'Or finalists

Will there be a shock winner?

Wasn't this a bombshell of an announcement? Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi featuring yet again? Ah, just kidding. No one deserves it more than these two geniuses; this is the sixth time that Ronaldo and Messi have ended up on the final list. Such has been their dominance that this is the seventh consecutive time that one of these two will win the coveted prize if Manuel Neuer fails to win it. This is getting boring, isn't it?

Well, that's what Thomas Muller thinks anyway; he had said that it would be boring if either of these two, especially Ronaldo, wins it. His former Bayern Munich manager Louis van Gaal tipped a German to win it after they secured the World Cup. A German? That's interesting.

Last time a German won the Ballon d'Or, which is also known as the "Golden Ball", was way back in 1996 when Matthias Sammer, often deployed as a sweeper (CDM) for Borussia Dortmund, became the recipient and only the second German to win it after Germany was unified. Manuel Neuer could become the third.

But will he? Or will the Portuguese talisman sweep the prize for the second time in a row after his exhilarating 2014? Or maybe the Argentinian master Lionel Messi could nick it for carrying his country to the finals of the FIFA World Cup?

I am not going to be a pundit over here to discuss who should get it and who should not. Instead, I am going to break down their goals, assists, key passes per game, defensive contributions, saves, clean sheets, direct and indirect contributions to goals etc. and leave it to you to decide a worthy winner.

Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi

Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro is entering the competition as the defending champion of the Ballon d’Or for the second time in his career. The difference though is that this time he could well win it for the second time in a row with the odds highly in his favour. The only drawback was his poor World Cup performance, scoring just one goal, one assist and squandering several chances.

Apart from that, he has been in devastating form, scoring 55 goals in 55 games this year, six more than any other player has managed in Europe's top five leagues. He also wrapped up the Champions League single-season scoring record, with 17 goals in the 2013-14 season.

Lionel Andrés "Leo" Messi Cuccittini is the only player in the history of football to have won the Golden Shoe three times. This little magician broke the long-standing record of Gerd Muller for the highest number of goals in a year in 2012 by scoring 91 goals.

After one goal in eight previous World Cup games, Messi scored four times at the 2014 World Cup and won the Golden Ball as the tournament's best player. He's had 52 goals in 62 games for club and country this year, also adding the La Liga and Champions League career scoring records to his résumé in the past month alone.

This is how the numbers of these two greats stack up against each other:

Cristiano Ronaldo's season in La Liga and Champions League

Lionel Messi’s season in La Liga and Champions League

• Ronaldo has a better goal per match ratio with 1.5 (Messi has a ratio of 1.05).

• With the emergence of Neymar and addition of Suarez, Messi has more often been the provider, creating 64 chances in just 22 matches.

• On the other hand, Ronaldo has created 44 chances but he has been the target man for his club.

When they play the role of givers

• Both of them have an equal number of assists amounting to 9 in both CL and the league.

• However, number of key passes per games differs significantly with Messi making 20 key passes more than Ronaldo per match. This again explains Messi’s provider status.

• FC Barcelona under Luis Enrique went on an eight-game unbeaten run, conceding no goals, before losing 3-2 to Paris Saint German in the Champions League. Messi played a big part in that, scoring five goals in seven matches (in which he played) and providing three assists.

• Both Ronaldo and Messi are chief contributors to their respective teams, having scored 42% and 43% respectively of their team’s goals.

Messi has scored 18 goals in 15 matches for Barcelona, bailing them out on two occasions where he has scored to save his team from the cusp of a defeat. But his influence has surely diminished as he has failed to produce the magic consistently. His team recently suffered a couple of defeats and a couple of irritating draws where the opponents were able to strangle the Argentine.

On the other hand, there has been no stopping Ronaldo and Real Madrid as the Los Blancos have now won 22 matches on the trot. Ronaldo has scored in 11 out of last 12 league games and has eight assists during that period. He has been directly involved in 19 goals and indirectly involved in 32. These numbers are not a surprise keeping in mind the huge amount of goals Real Madrid score.

Ronaldo has been relatively a bit less influential (by his standards) in Europe this season, with five goals and one assist in six games. Last season at this time of the year i.e. after the group stages of the Champions League, he had his goal tally already standing at nine goals, in the process creating a world record as well. He also had four assists to his name.

Defensive duties

Players like Messi and Ronaldo do not need to drop back often but when they are called for help at the back they must respond. So let's have a look how have they performed their defensive duties:

Messi has rarely tracked back

Ronaldo’s presence helps Madrid in defense

Ronaldo has always been deemed as a selfish player by experts and pundits around the world, the one who would prioritise glory before team. But this season his tracking back has been diligent and he has worked harder than ever for the team. In fact, he has won 54% of the duels this season, has made nine successful clearances and two crucial blocks where the ball was goal bound.

Messi has relatively failed in this department and his tackling has looked a bit laboured at times this season. The Argentine has won 53% of his duels making two crucial interceptions, and has zero blocks to his name. That is not bad considering how Barcelona keep possession and allow the opponent very less time on the ball, but compared to Ronaldo his numbers look paltry.

Each of them has been awarded Man of the Match on 13 occasions, which means they have remained equally influential. But Real Madrid has won more matches than Barcelona this season and have several Cup wins as well. They won the Copa Del Ray, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Super Cup and Club World Cup this year whereas Barcelona have failed to win a single trophy this year.

On the club front, Ronaldo edges Messi but what happened at the World Cup remains one of the factors why Messi is still being considered as a worthy finalist.

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Manuel Peter Neuer

They say, ‘A goalkeeper’s job is like a fighting terrorism. You can make a hundred brilliant saves, but the only shot people will remember is the one that gets past you.’ But Manuel Neuer thinks otherwise.

He has been one of the most assured goalkeepers of recent times. He is strong, bullish and does an amazing job between the poles. The way he attacks the ball is second to none and the big German is one of the reasons why Bayern Munich have been toppling teams with ease for the last three years.

After finishing 23rd in the Ballon d'Or voting last year, Neuer is the first keeper to finish in the top three for Ballon d'Or voting since Gianluigi Buffon was runner-up to Fabio Cannavaro in 2006.

Looking solely at the FIFA Player of the Year history, the German will have the highest result by a keeper since Oliver Kahn who was runner-up to Brazil's Ronaldo in 2002. The only keeper to win the Ballon d'Or was the Soviet Union's Lev Yashin, who bagged the award back in 1963.

You must be wondering about this being a straight swap analysis between Messi and Ronaldo as there is no mention about Neuer throughout the first half. The problem is, I have still not figured out a way to compare a goalkeeper with two forwards. If the forwards are the unstoppable forces then the goalkeeper is the immovable object. But there is no definite way to conclude who impacts more games for the team.

Let's be clear about one thing here: forwards will always win matches while goalkeepers will save them. The comparisons can be tricky. So I have carved out some relative statistics involving three top goalkeepers in the world right now: 1. Manuel Neuer, 2. Thibaut Courtois and 3. David De Gea. I did consider the greats like Iker Casillas, Gianluigi Buffon and Peter Cech but ultimately decided to stick to the current crop of in-form goalkeepers.

Let's see some of their crucial stats:

David De Gea’s performance in the Premier League

Manuel Neuer’s performance in the Bundesliga

Thibaut Courtois' performance in the Premier League

Neuer is one of the most intelligent goalkeepers in the world. He is known for his brave keeping as he often runs out of his line to make some astonishing saves and clearances. He faces big competition from two Premier League goalkeepers in De Gea and Courtois for the top spot, but it will take a string of heroic performances from the two to beat Neuer.

It is a topsy turvy situation when it comes to goalkeepers, as we can see in the above tables. There’s no clear winner there but Neuer stands out, having conceded just four goals in 17 matches which, by the way, is an all-time Bundesliga record.

Also, his average save per goals ratio makes him a much better prospect. Both Courtois and De Gea have half the number of saves per goals as that of Neuer. The German has made 27 saves in 17 games and can claim a success rate of 88%, having made 33 successful ones and failing in just four.

What is incredible here is that considering Bayern Munich play possession football, Neuer has to be alert when the ball comes inside the box. Goalies tend to turn off when they are not troubled much, but he always remains on his toes and is very strong when it comes to one on one situations.

Manuel Neuer’s distribution is phenomenal

De Gea has been fitter than ever

Courtois has been reliable

Neuer has made 638 successful distributions in 17 matches, leaving Courtois and De Gea way behind with 265 and 387 good distributions respectively. His vision and intelligence coupled with pinpoint passes to the forward line make Neuer the best goalkeeper in the world.

The German and Bayern Munich player has been awarded man of the match two times this season and has made five critical saves (17 matches) in the dying moments of the game to earn his team points. He has won the Bundesliga, World Cup and the DFB Pokal in 2014.

The brilliance of Ronaldo, Messi and Neuer has been covered by the stats, but let us put one last effort to evaluate their performance in this year’s blockbuster event – the World Cup. Three of them participated in the event, two of them turned out finalists and of course one of them kissed the trophy.

A look at their World Cup statistics:

At the end of the day, Neuer went down as the World Cup winner and received universal applause for his heroics from several pundits and former players. Ronaldo had one of the poorest campaigns you will ever watch a champion go through, and he received some flak from the experts all around. Messi was phenomenal and did what he does best, score goals, but more importantly he inspired his team out of the group stages and made his country proud.

As far as the Ballon d’Or is concerned we should have a gala time watching the ceremony of champions from all around the world. Football fans always crave for a friendly smile or hug between the foes, which is exactly what this ceremony in Zurich on 12th of January will provide.

But who will win the prized award? Will there be a new champion this season in Manuel Neuer? Is Lionel Messi going to win his 5th Ballon d’Or? Or Cristiano Ronaldo will win it for the second consecutive time? Let's wait and watch.

My Prediction: Cristiano Ronaldo. Au Revoir!