Where on the pitch do Manchester City players usually recover the ball after counter-pressing?
While counter-pressing under Guardiola involves a lot of ball winning in the attacking half, it doesn’t mean teams don’t counter-press in the defensive half of the pitch - since possession loss triggers counter-pressing and teams can lose the ball while attack build-ups from the back. But since possession losses are more while attacking in the final third and the regions close to it, we see few ball recoveries in the defensive half of the field than in the attacking half.
Of the 16 ball recovery points against Sunderland, 11 were in the attacking half, 4 in the attacking third. Against Sunderland, with the inverted fullbacks – Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna positioning centrally, City was able to cut short Sunderland’s attacking threats during breaks through the centre.
Of the 14 ball recovery points against West Ham, 12 were in the attacking half and 2 in the attacking third.
Against West Ham, since the inverted fullbacks were positioning the half-spaces and were also seen supporting the wingers out wide, City was recovering the ball very much on the wings. City was banking on overcoming favourable 1v1 situations on the wings first in order to move centrally. Read the analysis here.
Both matches combined, there were 20 ball recovery points in the middle third. Ball recovery points close to the 18-yard box can be very lethal due to proximity to goal.
Last season, City was attempting 16 shots on an average every game and 9 shots were being conceded. This season, City is averaging 17 shots every game and conceding one less than last season’s average. While the increment may not look like something that can wind up big changes, in the long run, it can make an impact.
Shot count only accounts partly in the expected goal model. Expected game model gives an idea about the chances of a shot ending up as a goal. The position of the shot, the type of assist and the game scenario make crucial contributions as well. When Manchester City counter-press and win the ball, they find themselves facing the opponents with a disjointed shape due to the movement of opponents in the transition phase.
Thus playing through balls becomes easy. After winning the ball around the higher middle third, City’s forwards find relatively more space and time on the ball compared to a deep defending team. All these help the players in taking better quality shots.
Last’s season Manchester City’s expected goal difference per game was 0.64. The actual goal difference per game was 0.79. That is, they were just scraping through most of the games last season – late wins against teams like Crystal Palace and Everton, poor performances against Top 6 teams in the league. City’s big wins, due to which many people were thinking that Pellegrini’s team was really good, were only against teams close to the relegation zone.
Under Guardiola, Manchester City's expected goal difference per game is 1.2 – which is quite good. The actual goal difference per game is 2. City is out-performing the model! The team is creating more chances and conceding less chances – mainly due to the ability to win the ball back as soon as losing it and surprise the defending team.
To get a really contrasting picture we can compare the expected goal charts for different games under Pellegrini and Guardiola. Take, for example, City’s last season’s game against Southampton and Arsenal, and this season’s game against West Ham.
Against Southampton and Arsenal, last season, City conceded scoring chances in the danger zone (the region around the penalty spot) – which indicates how easy it was for the opposition teams to breach through City’s defensive shape.
In the last game against West Ham, City was very different. Their pressing after losing the ball lead to ball possession recovery and gave the team many chances to have shots. Also, pressing in the central regions and a compact defensive shape denied Slaven Bilic's team the opportunity to enter the danger zone. There were three shots from West Ham in this region and probably all of them were from headers.
The contrast between the quality of the chances conceded and created last season and this season, speaks volumes about Guardiola's methods. Counter-pressing helps in thwarting attacks that otherwise could've ended up as shots. It also helps in attacking quickly and increasing City's chances of having more and better quality shots on target.
