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During the 2023-24 Premier League campaign, a record-breaking total of 1246 goals were scored, surpassing the previous high of 1222 goals set during a 22-team season in 1993. This makes the 2023-24 season the most prolific in Premier League history under the current 20-team format.
Among the players, there have been varying levels of performance in front of goal. Some exceeded expectations, others met them, and a third group struggled significantly, impacting their teams' standings. When forwards fail to convert opportunities, it places undue pressure on midfielders and defenders, who are primarily not responsible for scoring.
In this article, we will examine five forwards who have underperformed the most in the Expected Goals (XG) metric as the 2023-24 Premier League season concluded on Sunday.
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#5 Luis Diaz: - 3.9
Luis Diaz has had an underwhelming campaign overall, converting just eight goals from 11.9 Expected Goals. The Colombian managed just 13 goal contributions in the league, falling well short of expectations. His missed opportunities have been costly, particularly in the match against Manchester City, when he squandered three clear-cut chances.
Although Diaz has scored two winners and three equalizers for the Reds, his frequent inability to convert good positioning into goals has been a significant letdown.
Paris Saint Germain are reportedly interested in Diaz as a potential replacement for Kylian Mbappe. Liverpool, under the guidance of the Sporting Director Richard Hughes, will be open to the right offers. They are eyeing potential replacements such as Johan Bakayoko and Crysencio Summerville.
#4 Nicolas Jackson: - 4.6
Nicolas Jackson's debut season in the Premier League has not gone as initially expected. Despite facing several challenges, the young Senegalese striker found the back of the net 14 times -- a respectable tally for a newcomer still adjusting to the league. The former Villarreal forward has drawn criticism for his inconsistent finishing, yet he managed to score seven goals and provide three assists in his last 14 league games.
Following a decent first season, Chelsea hopes Jackson will show significant improvement and follow in the footsteps of Didier Drogba and Diego Costa. At just 22, the forward is expected to further adapt and contribute to the team's success.
While his finishing has been inconsistent, scoring 14 goals from 18.6 Expected Goals underlines his ability to score in pressure situations and offers hope for the Blues faithful.
#3 Darwin Nunez: - 5.3
Darwin Nunez, dubbed the 'Agent of Chaos', is yet to elevate his finishing skills following a challenging debut season at Anfield. Despite a reported £85 million price tag from Benfica, the Uruguyuan striker has struggled in front of goal, converting just 11 out of 16.3 Expected goals during the previous campaign.
Under Arne Slot's guidance, there's hope for improvement, but Nunez's conversion rate has actually worsened, going from nine goals out of 12.1 expected goals to 11 goals from 16.3 expected goals. While it's normal for strikers to miss chances, Liverpool's success hinges greatly on Nunez's ability to refine his finishing. Despite his struggles, Liverpool remain committed to Nunez, believing in his untapped potential.
#2 Brennan Johnson: - 5.3
Brennan Johnson has been a huge letdown for Spurs following a reported £47.5 million move from Nottingham Forest last summer. The Welsh international has been an inconsistent starter under Ange Postecoglou, starting 23 games in the league.
Despite the limited gametime, the forward has managed to amass 10.3 Expected Goals, out of which he converted only five goals. In the crucial fixture against Manchester City, Brennan missed an open goal despite being set up by Heung Min Son in the second half of the game, hurting Spurs' chances of Champions League qualification.
Albeit recording 10 assists in the league, Johnson will be expected to find the back of the net more often from the forthcoming campaign.
#1 Dominic Calvert-Lewin: - 5.9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been the most underperforming forward in the English top flight, scoring just seven times despite accumulating 12.9 expected goals. On the back of two injury-ridden seasons that saw him start only 30 times for the Merseyside outfit, the English striker managed to start 26 games during the previous campaign.
Despite his poor display in front of goal and points deduction, Sean Dyche has delivered another season of Premier League football, which is an extraordinary achievement in itself. Calvert-Lewin's most prolific season came under Carlo Ancelotti, when he managed to score 13 and 16 goals during the 2019–20 and 2021–21 seasons, respectively. He will be hoping to hit similar numbers in the forthcoming campaign.
