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Premier League football has turned out to be more competitive than ever, as we see four teams competing for the 3rd and 4th places in the Premier League table, currently occupied by Arsenal and Tottenham respectively.
Unai Emery's tenure at Arsenal has proven to be a resurgent one but hampered with injuries to key players. Even so, the Spanish boss is prepared to pull off a huge upset by the end of the season, attempting to lead his side to a top three finish in his very first season at Arsenal. On the other hand, Pochettino's men have bagged a win only once in their last five league games, suffering defeats at the hands of Burnley, Southampton, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
Manchester United and Chelsea are breathing down the neck of both Arsenal and Tottenham. United threw away a chance to go third on the table in their clash against Wolves by falling to a deserved defeat, whereas Spurs and Chelsea took their chances. With seven games left to play, any team can lay their hands on the third and fourth spot, so without further ado, let's have a look at each of the teams' probabilities for Champions League football.
#4 Chelsea
Sarri's men had a brilliant start to the 2018-19 season as they went 11 games unbeaten in the Premier League. The Chelsea fans were thrilled to bits watching their team play 'beautiful' football under Maurizio but a 3-1 defeat to Tottenham at Wembley ended their amazing run and since then, it has been a consistent downward slope for the Blues.
Although the London outfit are a strong force reckon in the Europa League, they have failed to keep their form in the Premier League. As a result, Manchester United have whizzed past them, covering up an 11-point lead on Chelsea since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's reign commenced. The fans are calling for Sarri's head and his signings have clearly failed to live up to the billing in the English league.
However, I have fair reasons to say that they have a solid chance of making it into the top four, despite several pundits already ruling them out. Though Chelsea is fighting tooth and nail to win, they are getting the points on board and are only three points behind 3rd placed Arsenal. Their goal difference is better than Manchester United and they have an easy run of games from now till the end of the season, compared to other sides.
They are likely to drop points against Liverpool and Man United as they play these two sides away from home, but considering United's form, a win for Chelsea is not out of the box. Thirdly, the fact that Sarri does not have to use all his first-team players against Slavia Prague in Europa League comes as an advantage to Chelsea, as Arsenal, Tottenham, and Manchester United play Napoli, Man City, and Barcelona respectively.
Proper squad rotation, tactical variations, and self-belief will lead Chelsea to a top-four finish, something even some Chelsea fans might have lost hope for. They have what it takes to carry themselves across the line.
Top four finish probability: 7/10
#3 Manchester United
The Red Devils were on an incredible 7-game away winning streak under Ole Gunnar Solksjaer, until they met Arsenal on the 10th of March. Now they have lost 3 of their last 3 away games in all competitions. What a drop in form, right?
Manchester United have struggled to keep their form since that 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, as they were clearly lucky enough to grab the three vital points against Watford at Old Trafford. The players themselves are making it difficult, as both the goals scored by Wolves last night were individual errors by Ole's players.
Manchester United have to play Chelsea at home soon after they play the mighty Manchester City. Before these two games, they have an important clash against Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League, with a game against Everton at Goodison Park squeezed in between the two quarter-final legs.
As you can see, expecting a grandstand finish from Manchester United looks a bit too much to ask for, considering their remaining fixtures, and therefore, they look like a side that would have to settle with Europa League by the end of the season.
A plethora of problems stand in the way of Ole Gunnar Solksjaer, ranging from Pogba's lackluster form to injuries to his key players. Will he and his men turn up big? I think not.
Top four finish probability: 5/10
#2 Tottenham Hotspurs
It has been a rollercoaster ride for Spurs this season. The highlight of the year for them is that they turned themselves from title contenders into top four strugglers within a month. Mauricio Pochetinno's men have terribly struggled to keep up with their form this season, and as a result, they are the only team from the 'Big Six' to have defeats in double-digit numbers (10) this season.
Tottenham have finally gotten back to winning ways, as they dispatched Crystal Palace with an easy 2-0 win. However, they have a difficult run of games coming up, notably, the one against Manchester City.
Tottenham were unlucky to not bag a win against Liverpool last weekend, but they held their fort and rose to the challenge, winning every battle that transpired on the pitch last night against Crystal Palace, eventually winning the game. What makes their run-in tough is that have to play Man City thrice in under a month; twice in UCL and once in the Premier League at Etihad.
Tottenham Hotspur only have to pit their wits against two strong sides in the coming weeks; City and Everton, while their arch-rivals West Ham have a game against Spurs too. It does look a bit unfair to say they won't make it into the top four, but Spurs have a reputation of not rising to the big occasion, which leads me to conclude that they are likely to miss out on the top four finish.
Top four finish probability: 5/10
#1 Arsenal
If there is anyone except Nuno Santo (Wolves coach) who has completely turned the tables, it's Unai Emery. Several pundits on various shows, notably Sky Sports, considered Arsenal the "least" likely to finish in the top four amidst the starting games of the season. And yet, here they are, sitting on 3rd with a two-point lead over United and Spurs, with a game in hand as well.
However, Arsenal's defence has let them down plenty of times, as they have shipped in the most number of goals (39) amongst the big six, only behind Manchester United (43). But, more often than ever, the lethal duo of Aubameyang and Lacazette have bailed out the North London club.
The remaining games for Arsenal in the Premier League are against all the mid-table teams on the table right now. They have to play Wolves, Watford, Leicester City and Everton, who sit 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th on the table, respectively. Arsenal's away form has certainly been a matter of concern for Unai Emery, but when the gaffer had Sokratis and Koscienly at his disposal, they have completely dominated the game, even in away games. The onus fell on Sokratis in absence of Holding, and he has held the back line better than any of Arsenal's defenders. For instance, the away games against Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea.
Arsenal are in red hot form right now and they can go on to win all their remaining fixtures if their centre-back pairing is fit and fine till the end of the season. Arsenal at the Emirates have finished the best of teams with ease as their home record this season has been sensational. They rarely broke into a sweat at home, something the Gunners have to replicate while playing away from home.
The 3rd position is clearly theirs to lose, and if Emery can motivate his players, especially the defence to keep up with such brilliant performances on a regular basis till the business end of the season, the top four finish will tilt their way for sure.
Top four finish probability: 8/10
