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The Premier League is already almost a quarter of the way through its fixture list and things are starting to take shape at both ends of the table. With a full weekend of matches to come, here are our predictions for week 10.
Undoubtedly the match of the weekend is Monday night's televised fixture between leaders and reigning champions Man City and 4th place Spurs, who have got off to their best ever Premier League start.
However, there are a number of interesting matches, particularly for some of the teams currently languishing in the relegation zone. There is a real danger for teams such as Newcastle, Huddersfield and Fulham that they will start to get cut adrift from their nearest rivals - and once a gap opens, it can be very hard to close that gap.
Fulham v Bournemouth
Fulham's defence is officially awful. They have already conceded 25 goals and, at current rates are on target to concede over 100 goals over the course of the season. This would be a sure recipe for relegation. In their last three league games alone they have conceded 12 goals so it's clear where the remedial work must start if the Craven Cottagers are to move out of their current position in the bottom three.
By contrast, Bournemouth have had a fine start to the season, currently sitting in 6th place with two away wins already under their belt, most notably a 4-0 victory against a strong Watford team. Bournemouth have been impressively clinical in front of goal. Converting 40% of their shots on target, they are second only to Arsenal on this measure. This is somewhat ominous for a Fulham team with such a poor defence.
Fulham have had only one win this season and this is the sort of home game in which they need to pick up points if they are to claw their way out of the relegation zone. Fulham were so poor last week against Cardiff that I can't see them repeating such a desultory performance. On this basis, I'm going for a 1-1 draw between the two sides.
Watford v Huddersfield
Watford made a sparkling start to the season, but their recent form has become patchy. This may, therefore, be a good time for them to play a Huddersfield side who are languishing second from bottom with only 3 points and no wins after nine games. The problem for Huddersfield is very much in the attacking half of the field as they have only scored 3 goals all season.
As shown against Liverpool last week, they are actually a decent footballing side, but lack sufficient quality at the top end of the field to convert those performances into points.
Watford don't concede many shots on target and Huddersfield don't create many scoring opportunities. On this basis, I find it difficult to envision a Huddersfield win. Watford to bounce back from last week's disappointment and win 2-1.
Brighton v Wolves
Brighton are coming off 2 consecutive 1-0 victories and those six points have now settled them into a more comfortable mid-table position. Brighton have scored in every home game this season and have converted 40% of their shots on target - the third-highest conversion rate in the EPL this season.
Wolves made a tremendous start to the season. They have taken points off both the Manchester giants and currently sit above Man Utd and Leicester City in the table - a tremendous achievement, even at this stage of the season, for a newly promoted team.
However, they are coming off a surprise home loss to Watford, having previously gone 6 games unbeaten. The starting line-up has remained unchanged through their first nine matches and it may be time to inject some fresh legs into the team for this match.
Wolves' away form to date indicates that they have struggled to score many goals but have also not conceded many. They are probably the better footballing team, but Brighton have home advantage. This has the potential to be an entertaining match between teams managed by two highly-regarded managers. A 1-1 draw would not be a surprise.
Liverpool v Cardiff
This should be a no-brainer. Liverpool are riding high - unbeaten in nine, seemingly unbeatable at Anfield, and having conceded no league goals at home this season. They are also coming off a comfortable 4-0 win over Red Star Belgrade where their vaunted front line, at last, seemed to click into gear.
Cardiff have only scored one goal away from home and are generally perceived as the weakest of the promoted sides, and therefore the most likely to go down.
However, there are some reasons for caution. Cardiff won their first PL game of the season last week, scored four goals in the process and are now out of the bottom three. Confidence and momentum should be positive. In addition, Liverpool have not always looked comfortable in their matches to date, struggling in particular against lower half teams Brighton and Huddersfield.
Neil Warnock likes nothing better than to take it to the established superstars and there's little doubt he will try to make this as hard and physical a game as possible, looking for a set piece or breakaway to snatch a goal. With Van Dijk and Gomez in the centre of defence, Liverpool look better able to withstand these tactics than in recent seasons.
This may be a tougher match for Liverpool than the odds would suggest and they may even be due to concede a home goal - I'm going for a closer than expected 2-1 win for the home side.
Southampton v Newcastle
Newcastle are in trouble, of that there is little doubt. They have no league wins, have lost each of their home matches and secured only two points all season. They are averaging less than a goal per game while conceding almost two. There are some signs of crowd unrest being directed not just against Mike Ashley but also Rafa Benitez, until now beyond criticism.
However, Southampton are not proving too formidable a force at home this year. They have only picked up two points from four home matches and have scored three goals while conceding seven in those matches.
Newcastle have possibly played better away from home, where Benitez's conservative tactics are better-suited to counter-attacking and are less open to hostile crowd reaction. Draws away to Cardiff and Palace, and single goal defeats to both Manchester clubs, are probably par for the course.
Both teams could do with a win in this match, but a lack of attacking verve on both sides suggests this will be a tight match with few goals. A 1-1 draw for me.
Leicester v West Ham
These teams have struggled for any consistency this season. Both coming off two successive defeats and sitting in the lower half of the table. At least West Ham have recovered from their calamitous start to the season, having lost their opening four matches.
Leicester played very well in the first half an hour against Arsenal on Monday night and could easily have been two goals to the good before Mesut Ozil decided to take the game into his own hands. West Ham had a good win away to Everton but have otherwise been pointless on their travels.
At home, Leicester can be a very difficult team to play and they will expect to beat teams in the lower half of the table at the King Power. Jamie Vardy has had a relatively quiet season to date and that is due for a change. A 2-1 home victory seems about right to me.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
After a somewhat traumatic start to the season, Arsenal are now very much the Premier League's form team. Seven successive victories have propelled them rapidly up the table and they now sit only two points behind Man City and Liverpool. Three away wins in a row have yielded ten goals and highlighted Arsenal's sparkling attacking play.
By contrast, Palace cannot buy a win at home. One point from four home goals is not the sort of return they require or expect, particularly when dropping points to bottom half teams such as Newcastle and Southampton.
Arsenal have been the most clinical team in the PL this season, scoring with 41% of their shots on target. They are second only to City in terms of goals scored. In Lacazette and Aubameyang, they have two genuine goal scorers and with the creative play of Ozil behind them, the goals have flowed.
Arsenal have sometimes struggled at Selhurst Park, but the crowd there is no longer as raucous as it has been in years gone by. Palace will depend almost exclusively on Zaha to create and/or score their goals. Arsenal have more variety, creativity and depth to their attacks.
While Arsenal do concede a lot of shots and shots on target, it does not appear that Palace have the personnel to take advantage of this. Given Arsenal's current form and momentum, a 3-1 away win appears a good bet.
Burnley v Chelsea
Burnley's Europa League qualifying campaign clearly had a detrimental effect on their early season form, four successive defeats leaving them with only a solitary point by mid-September.
Conversely, Chelsea have been one of the surprise teams of the season, despite being league champions only two years ago. The team seemed to be in decline, and few expected Sarri to embed and integrate his style so quickly, particularly as pre-season preparation was truncated due to the World Cup.
Chelsea's slick passing and possession-based game has left them unbeaten after nine games, and only two points behind the league leaders. Their away form has been particularly impressive, picking up ten of a possible 12 points. By contrast, Burnley have only one home win, a surprisingly comfortable 4-0 victory over Bournemouth.
In perfect symmetry, Burnley are five points worse off than at this stage last season and Chelsea five better off. Coming off a five-goal thumping to Man City is bound to have some effect on Burnley's confidence and approach to this match.
Burnley have the second lowest number of shots and shots on target in the PL, while Chelsea have the second highest. Burnley also concede more shots than any other team in the league. On this basis expect Chelsea to dominate possession, create more chances and win - a 2-1 win for the away team.
Manchester United v Everton
This season, United are predictable only in their unpredictability: defeats to West Ham, Brighton and Derby, an awful first half against Newcastle followed by a stirring second-half comeback, a passive and conservative opening against Chelsea rescued by an incisive attacking exhibition after the break, including two high-quality goals by the hitherto anonymous Martial. The positive vibes garnered by the away draw to Chelsea quickly dampened as they were outclassed at home to Juventus in the Champions League three days later.
Everton do not like playing at Old Trafford - Utd have more PL wins against Everton than any other team so it does not augur well for the Goodison Park outfit. However, Everton are on a good run of form with three consecutive wins. They are seven points better off than the same period last season whereas United are 6 points worse off.
The Red Devils have scored 6 and conceded 7 goals at home and, likewise, Everton have scored 6 and conceded 7 away from home. United are surely going to have to hit form at some time and get a run of results under their belt. Tentatively, I'm going 2-1 for the home team.
Spurs v Manchester City
Monday night's match is undoubtedly the highlight of week 10 with the leaders facing a team who are only two points behind them and will expect to mount a serious challenge to the reigning champions.
This has been somewhat of a curate's egg of a season already for Spurs. Despite two early defeats against Liverpool and Watford, they have recovered strongly and now have their best PL points tally ever at this stage of the season.
There have been a lot of goals scored in matches between these two teams in recent years - for example 4-1 and 3-1 wins for Spurs set against a couple of 5-1 victories for City. And last season, the champions comfortably beat Spurs on this same Wembley pitch by 3-1.
Spurs are genuine contenders for a Champions League position, but the truth is they are far away from a PL challenge. City are quite simply the best team in the league both offensivley (most goals scored, most shots, most shots on target) and defensively (least goals conceded, least shots against and least shots on target against).
It seems to me that Spurs aren't quite the team they were last season, while City are. Spurs were comfortably beaten by Liverpool at Wembley earlier in the season. City are a better and more clinical team than Liverpool. 3-1 to the visitors in this Monday night encounter.
