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What do Arsenal and Liverpool want from this season?
As the two English giants prepare for this weekend’s tussle at the Emirates – a match that seemed unlikely to be a top of the table clash when the fixtures list for 2013-14 was drawn – the question is increasingly being voiced by supporters. For Arsenal, the answer from Arsene Wenger has for a decade been frustratingly specific: Champions League football. For Liverpool, the answer is usually vague. They will look to return to the Champions League, but over the last two years have been cautious about funding that aim.
Despite the rapid progress both have made since the opening day, neither squad really looks title-worthy. While it is tempting to bill this a clash of title favourites, both Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rodgers may be content just to finish the season in the Top 4 (perhaps with a domestic trophy). It might be interesting to judge them on their performance today – if either attempts to dominate the match and go for a win, it would demonstrate the mental strength that is necessary to mount a successful campaign; if, on the other hand, either were to shut shop and play for a draw, it might suggest a lack of self-belief.
Anticipation remains high and tickets for this match were sold out weeks in advance. This is a fascinating clash involving two strong attacks. In the home camp, Mesut Ozil is a fantastic creator and Aaron Ramsey arguably has the best current form among European midfielders. In the Red corner, Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez constitute the EPL’s best strike partnership, racking up the goals at a blistering pace, with 10 between them in 4 matches together. Muzzling either attack will be hard for two defences that have struggled to keep a clean sheet in recent games.
Tactical Overview
Historically this fixture has been known for drama (Arsenal’s last-minute goal to win the title at Liverpool’s expense in 1989; more recently the last-minute penalties for either side in April 2011) and for its tense, tight nature, which makes a tactical analysis somewhat redundant. Nevertheless…
Arsenal will miss Mathieu Flamini and Serge Gnabry through injury. Flamini has been a rock in holding midfield and his absence may encourage Arsenal’s defenders to sit deep, given that SAS can do plenty of damage on the counter-attack. Liverpool’s first-choice attacking midfielder, Philippe Coutinho, has been out with an injury for over a month and is also likely to sit out. Given that both Flamini and Coutinho operate in the same zone, this robs us of an interesting duel.
SAS are inarguably Liverpool’s most important weapons (and perhaps their sole weapons at present). They complement each other well – both are quick on their feet, can drop deep to receive the ball, or turn and sprint past defenders with some cunning running. Uptil now Rodgers has been happy to stick them upfront and play the rest of his men behind the ball. If Arsenal manage to exercise midfield superiority through Ramsey and Tomas Rosicky, it may force Steven Gerrard, Lucas Leiva and co. to retreat into a defensive shape and try to hit Arsenal on the break. Rodgers has often used the 3-5-2 formation as a counterattacking shape.
That would present centre-backs Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny with a tricky scenario: do they play up the pitch to help out with the midfield, or stay back? SAS are excellent on the counter, Glen Johnson is a competent attacker down the right flank and Gerrard’s long passes can set them up for a quick run at goal. Against Borussia Dortmund last week, Arsenal repeatedly pressed high up the pitch without being able to force their way into the Germans’ box; they were shut out and then lost the match to a counter-attack.
On the other hand, should the home side choose a more pragmatic defensive approach, Liverpool may be put to a test unlocking them without Coutinho’s trademark through-balls. Arsenal possess counter-attacking potential of their own, primarily through the pacy Theo Walcott, who recorded a goal and an assist in this fixture last season.
Walcott – who nearly joined Liverpool in January – stole Jordan Henderson’s thunder in that match. His former England teammate had inspired Liverpool to a 2-0 lead with identical stats – 1 goal, 1 assist. Henderson isn’t a guaranteed starter today, but if he does, he may well be employed to watch Tomas Rosicky, another midfielder with a massive work rate. Rosicky’s running provides a crucial link between midfield and attack. If Liverpool manage to close him down, they can prevent Mesut Ozil from receiving the ball in advanced positions.
Till last season you could have predicted that Arsenal would play a possession game with plenty of sideways passing. Now they are more pragmatic, and are using possession more efficiently. Statistics show that over the last couple of months they have been prepared to concede the ball after taking a lead, conserving energy for a later charge.
Up front, Olivier Giroud has transformed into a fantastic attacker, battering defences with his huge and powerful frame in every game. Not only is he challenging Sturridge atop the goals table, but he leads the league in assists as well, ahead of Ozil!
Top 5 chance creators in the EPL 2013/14
Giroud may well play as a lone striker tomorrow, with Ozil and Santi Cazorla playing behind him in central midfield. This will pose a challenge for Liverpool’s defence, should Rodgers persist with 3 at the back: who marks Giroud? It’s likely to be either ex-Arsenal man Kolo Toure (who marked Christian Benteke in the Villa-Liverpool match) or Giroud’s French national teammate Mamadou Sakho, physically the toughest of Liverpool’s defenders.
The burly striker excels at holding up play and allowing others to exploit the space he creates. Against Napoli, he helped create Arsenal’s first goal by laying off the ball to Aaron Ramsey, who cut it back for Ozil to score. Playing deep, he could drag his marker out of position and allow Walcott or Cazorla to storm in behind.
Conclusion
With both sides currently punching above their weight, it is hard to mark out a clear favourite. Arsenal have a home advantage and are marginally the better side. A draw is the most likely result, though for Arsenal that should mean two points dropped. A single lapse in concentration at either end could decide the game. There will be goals, but there are unlikely to be winners.
