PSG without Neymar: Stuck in limbo

Last time Neymar was stretched off a football pitch, it was the quarterfinals of 2014 World Cup. When Juan Zuniga kneed the Brazilian golden boy, he not only broke his back but also the dreams of millions of Brazilian fans. Instead of winning a historic World Cup on their home soil, they were handed a thrashing of proportions unheard of by the soon to be World Champs.

While his national team suffered (which to be honest would still have happened. What else do you expect from a defense featuring David Luiz, Maicon and Dante?), he came back in time to propel Barcelona to a second European treble in their history.

This time the fallout from his injury will be worse, and felt by his club both on and off the field.

When Qatar Sports Investment bought PSG in 2012, their goal was simple – to launch the club back into the continent’s consciousness, promote Qatar’s national brand ahead of the already controversial 2022 World Cup and lessen their dependency on energy resources as a source of revenue.

Before this past summer’s inconceivable spending spree, they had shed more than $850 million, while bringing in players like Ibrahimovic, Cavani, Di Maria, Verratti and company. Sure it bought them four Ligue 1 titles and a bunch of domestic trophies, but what they really craved was the UEFA Champion League.

That’s why this year’s Neymar signing was as much for footballing reasons as it was to make a statement - that if one of the best players on the planet is available, his options are not limited to Real Madrid, Barcelona, the two Manchester Clubs, and Bayern Munich.

Game changer:

It's easy to forget, because he's been with us for almost a decade now, that Neymar has the potential to end up as one of the ten best players to ever grace the football field.

Look at what he’s capable of at the height of his powers:

For the last 20 minutes of that game (ironic, really), he grabbed the best player in the world title from both Messi and Ronaldo, put the team on his back and dragged them to victory. That was supposed to be his crowning moment but then Ronaldo went nuclear in the Champions League, Messi remained Messi and Neymar got pushed to Page 2 yet again.

That’s why the move made sense for both the parties – Neymar finally had a team that would play to his strengths and weaknesses and where HE would be the star attraction, and PSG stamped its authority on the world football.

Remember, if there’s was no Neymar, Mbappé would probably be gracing the White of Madrid instead of the Parisian Blue. And if you are one of the few people who thinks that £200 was way too much, take a look at this:

Source: Understat.com

(If you don’t understand the above graphic, don’t panic. Just focus on two concepts – xG90 and xA90. xG90 means how many goals a player should have scored over a 90 minutes time frame depending on the quality of chances and xA90 means how many assists a player should’ve had over a 90 minutes span if the chances he created had been finished at an average rate.)

Neymar was responsible for 1.17 goal scoring opportunities every 90 minutes (xG90 + xA90) over the last four seasons. For comparison Ronaldo created 1.29 goal scoring opportunities and Messi created 1.37 over the same period.

After his flashy, but for the most part ineffective performance in the first leg against Real Madrid, where he was overshadowed by an efficient and ruthless Ronaldo, the stage was set up for the Brazilian to once again conjure up last year’s magic. This is what he was bought for, to bring the long elusive continental success back to Paris.

And now he’s in Brazil, racing to be fit in time for the World Cup. So where do we go from here?

What next for PSG?

The silver lining for PSG is that they have more than enough players in the attack to make up for Neymar’s loss. Di Maria will probably fill in for his place and they still have Draxler on the bench for extra offensive 'oomph'. Remember, this is basically the same team as last year which thrashed Barcelona 4-0 at home.

Underutilized and raring to go

Plus, now they have one of the hottest prospect in footballing world in Mbappe. Last year’s Barcelona team after 27 league games had an xGA (expected goals against, which basically means how many goals a team should've conceeded based on the quality of chances they provided to the opposition. The higher the xGA, the more porous the defense is) of 20.34.

The current iteration of Real after the same number of games has an xGA of 30.37. So putting a goal or two past this Madrid team, which is not known for its defensive acumen, won’t be a challenge for this team.

The problem, which existed even before Neymar went down, is on the other side of the field. This was a concern heading into the season but was glossed over by Neymar’s showboating skills and trickery. Verratti and Rabiot are quality midfielders but finding a third partner for them has been a struggle.

PSG tried Giovani Lo Celso in the first leg but he got skinned by the Madrid midfield. Thiago Motta is still injured (and probably will always be injured). Their best option right now, unbelievable as it is, is former Madrid man Lassana Diarra. Before signing with PSG, he was seen last plying his trade with Al Jazira in the UAE, where he made only 5 appearances in the UAE Pro-League.

The defense is solid except for Dani Alves, who at the age of 34 has completely given up on the concept of defense. Looking onto the bench provides more questions than answers. It’s ironic that in a season headlined by superstar acquisition, PSG’s season will be defined by the men nobody bothered about.

If they lose on Tuesday, Unai Emery will definitely be shown the door. They will still end winning the Ligue 1 and the domestic cup, but that’s not why they spent more than $500 million dollars, including Mbappe’s deal which will kick in this summer.

Sure they'll get a good coach who could paper over their current flaws, but things won't be that easy when it will come to restocking the team to address the roster imbalance.

Why? Remember a little something called the Financial Fair Play (FFP)?

For the uninitiated, FFP was established in 2011 to make sure that clubs don’t lose money and end up with debt that they can’t repay. Long story short, a club can’t spend more than that they have earned over a certain period of time, with a maximum of €30 million ($37 million) deficit allowed. You can check out the full 108 page document, which is quite a page turner, here.

So when you have spent more than some nations’ GDP on two players, every dollar counts. Bowing out early in the Champions League will hit hard financially. The difference between winning the whole thing, and losing in the round of 16 is almost $50 million. That’s just the prize money.

There’s also income through the gate receipts, bonuses from sponsors, and other commercial gains. UEFA has already launched an investigation against them. They’ll have to unload some of their players and conjure up magical sponsorship deals which don’t violate UEFA’s law, to even have a chance of breaking even.

And all of this is before they start spending to fix their roster. But this isn't new for PSG.

They have already breached the FFP regulations once in 2014. It resulted in a €20 million fine, a cap on spending limit at €55 million and ability to play Champions League with only 21 players (instead of 25 players).

This will be their second violation and this time the traditional big boys of the football will have an added incentive to make sure that they are punished appropriately. Potential punishments could range from transfer restrictions or ban to being debarred from the European competitions.

Neymar's future:

At 26 years old, Neymar is only entering the prime of his career. A month ago making a bet that by the end of July he’ll be our front runner for Ballon D’Or after winning the treble with PSG and reaching at least the semi-finals of the World Cup didn't seem like such an insane idea. There was nobody in a better situation to end the stranglehold of Messi and Ronaldo over the year-end prize.

Now, he will be lucky to make it to the plane for Russia.

Modern fans are smart enough to see through the fact that his mind-boggling stats, 19 goals and 13 assists in 20 league games, are being achieved in a watered down league. In the recent Deloitte Football Money League Report, with the exception of PSG, there’s not even a single club French club in the top 20.

For some perspective, England leads the way with 10 clubs, Germany, Italy and Spain have 3 clubs each. Yes, he will win another Ligue 1 title next year, then the following, and the following year, till the end of time. But, with the exception of last year’s fun and surprising Monaco team, PSG doesn't need him to do that.

If the UEFA does find the team guilty (the verdict will be announced in spring next year and will be implemented from 2019-2020 season), he will be stuck with an unbalanced roster for at least for a year or two. His arrival caused the dominos to fall in a certain way, and directly or indirectly he’s responsible for the current mess.

Will Neymar rise out of his fall?

This will be the defining moment of his footballing career. Will he lift PSG out of the void? Or will he just be a passanger on his way to a team which he sees as a better destination? Whatever the answer, it sure will be fun.