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Distance covered, shots on goal and off-target, interceptions made, and a host of other statistics allow us to make reasonable inferences from any football game. However, the newly adopted 'expected goals' metric allows statisticians to make predictions regarding the potential direction of the clubs' seasons based on the information gathered so far with reasonable certainty.
So that's what The Telegraph did using the Opta Expected Goals Metric and here's what they found.
Watford's wastefulness has them rooted to the bottom
This team, under the stewardship of Javi Gracia, finished 11th in the league table last season. Now, after 8 games they're sitting at the bottom of the table and have a new boss, Quique Sanches Flores who has failed to make an immediate impact as we've seen elsewhere in the past.
Their xG indicates that they should've scored 11.3 goals this season so far instead of the woeful four that they've actually netted. They should also have conceded roughly five goals more than they should have. Despite the catastrophic results including an 8-0 thumping at the hands of Manchester City, things should improve for Watford.
Even recent results indicate that they're starting to improve defensively, and their performances in the League Cup suggest that they're capable of getting the goals but just need to start doing so consistently.
Tammy Abraham is riding a shortlived wave
Who would've expected the youngster to be joint-top of the scoring charts with 8 games behind us, not many would've predicted it. Although he finished last season with 25 goals for Aston Villa, a drop-off in the Premier League would not only be predictable but also expected.
It is, however, unlikely that he will keep up this superb form for Chelsea as xG indicates that he would've only had 4.46 goals so far, close to half his tally. This isn't a poor return by itself but pales in comparison to his high-flying achievements. Unfortunately for Abraham, his elite goalscoring so far has been more of a result of his confidence and luck from unlikely scoring positions that getting into good goalscoring spaces consistently and it'll probably wane soon.
Manchester United's problems lie in attack
Ole's at the wheel, but he's finding it difficult to keep his Manchester United supercar on the track. This poor form is despite United having the fourth-best defensive record in the league. It's an obvious conclusion then, that Manchester United's issues are in the final third rather than in the defensive phase. The expected goals metric provides a more accurate picture.
United's defence may be the fourth-best in the league currently but it should really be the best since they've only conceded 6.91 xG so far, which is the lowest in the league. The issue is at the other end where they've scored 9 goals so far from chances where they should've scored 11. That's a small gap to bridge, but it also indicates that United are creating less than they should and that needs to change if they're to chart a course to any sort of improvement under Solskjaer.
Liverpool's early 8-point lead explained
Perhaps one of the biggest shocks of the season so far has been how far away Liverpool have pulled from the chasing pack so early in 2019/20. The indicators on the xG metric show that Jurgen Klopp's side have done so by scoring more goals than expected and conceding fewer than they might have.
Their opponents have been letting them off the hook as they've conceded almost two goals less than they might have if opposing teams had taken their big chances, and no, Adrian isn't overperforming in goal with a save percentage of 64.7%. They've also scored 4 more goals than expected which accounts for a lot of their points at the moment.
On the other hand, while Manchester City are overperforming their goals scored projections, they're leaky at best defensively. Their expected goals conceded metric is similar to that of Burnley and Sheffield United, which for defending champions is a pretty damning statistic.
