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The business end of the 2017/18 season is fast approaching and it heightens the hunt for silverware, both trophies, and individual awards. Among the awards, winning the European Golden Shoe is a massive personal achievement for every goalscorer.
Formerly known as the European Golden Boot, the award was bestowed upon the highest goalscorer amongst all leagues in Europe by French magazine, L'Equipe, between 1968 and 1991. After a brief hiatus, European Sports Media took over in 1996 and the selection criteria now take the toughness of the league into consideration.
Thus, a player from a tougher league can win the league despite scoring fewer goals. The leagues are ranked based on their UEFA coefficients, which are calculated based on the performances of clubs in a particular league in European club competitions for the past 5 years. Thus, goals scored by players in the top 5 leagues are multiplied by a factor of two, goals scored in leagues ranked 6 to 21 fetch a multiplication factor of 1.5 and goals scored in leagues ranked beyond 21 have a multiplication factor of 1.
Hence, the European Golden Shoe is won by the highest goalscorer, taking several factors into consideration. This season has seen several marksmen doing well to give themselves a chance to win the coveted prize and let's take a look at the top 10 contenders for the crown come May.
#10 Jonas- 37.5 points
Ever since the new scoring system was introduced in 1996, only Henrik Larsson has won the Golden Shoe playing for a team outside of the top 5 leagues. Now, Benfica's Jonas Goncalves Oliveira is trying to emulate the former Celtic man and already has 25 goals in the Primeira Liga, more than any other player on this list.
The 33-year old is set to beat his personal best of 32 league goals, which he scored in the 2015/16 season if he continues in the same vein. The only downside for Jonas is that the Primeira Liga is outside Europe's top 5 leagues at the moment and hence, every goal is only multiplied by a factor of 1.5.
Thus, the Brazilian has to continue scoring at the current rate to win the award and on the evidence of current form, he can definitely do so.
#9 Luis Suarez- 34 points
The two-time European Golden Shoe winner finds himself lower down the order thanks to a patchy start to this season. The Uruguayan managed to score only 5 goals in the first 10 La Liga games but has rediscovered his form in recent months with 12 goals in his last 11 games.
The 31-year old remains one of the best strikers in world football and if anyone can cover the deficit, then it will be the former Liverpool man. Further, the creative abilities of his team-mates Lionel Messi, Ousmane Dembele and January signing, Philippe Coutinho, will only help him score more in the business end of the season.
If Suarez does manage to continue the current form, then the only player to break the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly on the award in this decade can have a go at winning it thrice.
#8 Ciro Immobile- 44 points
Another player who is having the best season of his career in front of goal is Lazio's Ciro Immobile. The Italian is playing at his ninth club and has finally found consistency at the Italian capital. The 28-year old has scored 22 goals in 22 Serie A games this season and has been a key player in the Italian side's quest for Champions League qualification.
This is the first time that Immobile has scored 20+ goals in consecutive seasons and the former Borussia Dortmund striker is set to cross last season's tally of 23 goals with ease. However, winning the European Golden Shoe requires consistency and the forward has seen a slight dip in form with only 7 goals in his last 10 league games.
Hence, Immobile needs to sustain his early season form if he wants to keep up with the leaders and win gold at the end of the season.
#7 Sergio Aguero- 42 points
The Argentine would definitely find himself higher up the list if his game-time was assured at Manchester City. The 29-year old has been sharing playing time with Gabriel Jesus as manager Pep Guardiola prefers to rotate his strikers. While this definitely bodes well for the Citizens, it hurts their no. 10's chances of winning European's big prize for goalscorers.
The diminutive striker remains the most consistent one in the Premier League and has managed to score 21 league goals despite missing out on significant game-time. On one hand, this is due to Aguero's world-class ability to always be among goals. On the other hand, the presence of creative players such as Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and Raheem Sterling has further enhanced his output.
Thus, Aguero's chances of finishing at the top of the scoring list are dependant on rotation but his ability alone ensures that he has a genuine chance.
#6 Edinson Cavani - 46 points
The second Uruguayan on the list, Cavani has been extremely consistent for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), especially since the departure of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Manchester United. He scored 35 league goals in the 2016/17 season and already has 23 goals this season despite the arrival of Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.
However, the presence of the aforementioned names is the reason the 31-year old does not find himself in the top 5 as the goals can very likely be expected to be shared amongst the three. Nevertheless, Cavani remains a top striker in world football and plays in a central position as compared to the other two, which gives him a great chance to clinch the award for the first time in his career.
#5 Mohamed Salah- 44 points
The most surprising inclusion in the final five, Salah has been nothing short of phenomenal for Liverpool. Aided by an advanced position on the left wing, the Egyptian has been the best and most consistent player for Jurgen Klopp's side this season.
Salah is the first Liverpool player since Suarez in 2013/14 to score 30 goals in a season and it is only February. 22 of those goals came in the Premier League as his devastating pace, close control and dribbling ability make him difficult for any team's defence to handle.
While Salah is well-placed to win the European Golden Shoe in an attack-minded team, it is the lack of previous indicators of this form which decide his position on this list.
#4 Neymar- 40 points
The world's most expensive player of all time comes in at no. 4 on the contenders' list. The Brazilian has 20 goals for PSG in just 19 games but trails team-mate Cavani, who is on 23 goals. However, the 26-year old remains one of the best players in world football with the ability to change games on his own.
Further, Neymar is the main man at the Ligue 1 club and is on penalty-duty as well for the French side. Thus, he can be expected to take hold of proceedings in the coming months as he tries to add individual accolades to his resume.
Finally, PSG are looking to overturn a two-goal deficit against Real Madrid in the Champions League round of 16 and failing to do so could be a blessing in disguise in this context. An exit from Europe's top club competition could see Neymar go all out in the Ligue 1 to claim the European Golden Shoe, making him a firm favourite.
#3 Robert Lewandowski- 40 points
Lewandowski is on course to become the Bundesliga's top scorer for this season after the near-miss in the previous season. Last year's winner, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang joined Arsenal in January, clearing the path for the 29-year old.
However, winning the European Golden Shoe will need further effort and the Pole is more than capable of putting up a fight. He has scored 20 goals so far this season and has been a very consistent scorer at the top level.
If he needs to win the award, then he will be expected to better his best return of 30 goals, which he scored twice between 2015 and 2017.
#2 Lionel Messi- 40 points
While most would expect Messi's name at the top of the list, he does face genuine competition for the top spot. The Argentine is one of the two players to have won the award four times and is the safest bet to win it again this year.
However, the 30-year old has not been at his absolute best this season, especially when compared to his supreme goalscoring heroics from previous seasons. Nevertheless, it is the hallmark of great players to step up towards the business end of the season and Messi can be easily expected to add to his 20 league goals before the season ends.
Further, the return of Dembele from injury and the arrival of Coutinho reduces the creation responsibilities on Messi, giving him a great chance to become the first player to win the European Golden Shoe five times.
#1 Harry Kane- 46 points
The top contender for this season's European Golden Shoe is Tottenham's Harry Kane. The Englishman has built his reputation season after season, improving his goals tally with every passing season. The 24-year old scored 21, 25 and 29 league goals in the past 3 seasons and already has 23 goals this season.
If one considers his continuous progression, then he is set to create a new personal best. Further, he remains the focal point in an attacking Spurs team, has penalty duties and his side are in the hunt for a Champions League spot next season, implying he is set to play every game when fit.
Thus, a combination of factors make Kane the best prospect to win the European Golden Shoe this season and given his age, ability and consistency, he could easily dominate the award for years to come.
