UEFA Nations League: England, Spain or Croatia - Who Advances and Who Gets Relegated?
The group stage of the UEFA Nations League draws to a close during this international break in mid-November and a number of top teams are at risk of being relegated to League B. In all, four teams from four groups will drop down to League B while four teams from League B are promoted to League A.
The most closely-contested group in League A is Group 4 which sees Spain, England, and Croatia vying for the top spot and a place in the semi-finals which will take place in June 2019.
League A - Group 4 Standings
As things stand, Spain are top of the table with six points while England and Croatia are on four points each. Only one team moves on to the semi-finals and only one team can be relegated. This is good news for Spain because the 2010 World Cup winners cannot be relegated.
La Furia Roja have already played all their games but they are not assured of qualification to the semi-finals yet. That will depend on the result in the final game between England and Croatia which will take place on 18 November at Wembley Stadium in London.
Criteria to decide final standings
While Spain nervously watch on as England and Croatia lock horns, there are four possible scenarios with all three teams capable of going through to the semis.
If teams are tied on points at the end of the league phase, there are certain criteria to decide the final standings.
1) Higher number of points in the matches played among the teams in question.
2) Superior Goal Difference in matches played among the teams in question.
3) Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question.
4) Higher number of goals scored away from home in the matches played among the teams in question.
5) Criteria 1 to 4 are then reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question.
6) Superior goal difference in all matches.
Qualification and Relegation Scenarios
Previous result between England and Croatia: Croatia 0-0 England
If England win: England will top the group and qualify for the semi-finals while Croatia will be relegated to League B.
If Croatia win: Croatia leapfrog both teams to top the group and qualify for the semi-finals while England get relegated to League B.
0-0 Draw: This result will see Spain top the group and qualify for the semi-finals while Croatia get relegated to League B because of their negative Goal Difference.
Any other draw: This result will also see Spain top the group and move on to the semi-finals but it will see England relegated due to Croatia scoring more away goals in matches between the two teams.
Quite simple, isn't it?
England vs Croatia Betting Odds (bet365)
England win: 1.95
Croatia win: 3.75
First scorer: Harry Kane - 4.33