4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3: What should be Chelsea's formation next season?

4-3-3

When someone says 4-2-3-1, a clear picture forms in mind – two layers of midfield. But with 4-3-3, it becomes difficult to form a picture. If you’ve played EA Sports FIFA, you would have probably noticed these variants in 4-3-3: attack, flat, defend. Now, I’d like to attempt to make a Chelsea eleven with each of these (in their respective order).

As indicated above, the attacking variant has one purely holding player (Matic), and two purely attacking players (Oscar and Willian). The wide forwards cut inside to support the centre forward, full backs go up in support to fill the wide areas, and the centre backs split (drift apart). The holding player slots in between them, making a back 3 ready to stop any counter attack. The transition to defence happens as follows. The holding player pushes forward and the attacking midfielders run back, the split centre backs come closer, and the full backs rush down their flank.

The flat 4-3-3 is a bit different.

This type has 2 box-to-box players (Fabregas and Ramires), along with the destroyer (Matic). The two box-to-box players hold the key. When both push up, it becomes the attacking variant, and creates an overload in attack. When both come back, it becomes the defensive variant. Ideally, both would be in opposite moods – one pushes up and promises to track back, while the other sits back alongside the holding player.

This is aimed mainly at not conceding. There’re two holding players in there, with absolutely no intention to attack. This one comes closest to 4-2-3-1.

Strength

As seen from the above figures, the 4-3-3 offers more flexibility. With the versatility of players like Fabregas, transitions between the 3 variations can be made mid-way through games, which keep the opponent guessing. Had Matic not been at Chelsea, this might have been a risky formation to play, because, Mikel isn’t really of that quality yet. In the league last season, Matic created 23 chances and averaged 6 defensive actions per game, while Mikel created just 9 chances and averaged only 3 defensive actions per game.

Chelsea are likely to play two of Hazard, Willian or Schurrle in the wide positions most frequently. Apart from skill on the ball, what sets them apart from the rest are their pace and acceleration. This should come in handy during counter attacks, because, there are two outlets on either side to play the ball to.

Mourinho demanded all his attack minded players to track back last season, and will demand it again no doubt. But with 4-3-3, it does not become that big a compulsion. When a full back pushes forward and gets caught out of position, there are always 3 in the midfield to deal with it. Again, if the centre-backs split and the holding player slots in between them, the defence would take shape instantly. This would reduce the burden of tracking back from the wide forwards.

Weakness

As was the case with 4-2-3-1, where getting the combination right was the key, transition is the decider here. For 4-3-3 to work, it would take a good number of games to get used to, before the players can involuntarily switch between the three variants. Then, there’s the risk of the full back pushing too much forward, and in essence, occupy the same position as the wide forward.

It should work eventually, but while the team acclimatizes to it, Chelsea may have already dropped some points in the initial stages.

Conclusion

Both formations have their own ups and downs, but I am of the opinion that Chelsea would be much more watchable and entertaining playing 4-3-3 rather than 4-2-3-1. Some teams in the Premier League and across Europe do play a 3 man defence very frequently these days, and Chelsea have exactly the right type of players to exploit the space left by the wing back in the wide areas.

Besides, players like Fabregas, Oscar, van Ginkel and Ramires are so versatile that it becomes quite a task to classify each one as a completely attacking or holding player. They’d rather be given more freedom about choosing their role, which is provided by 4-3-3 (due to its different variations, namely, attack, flat, and holding). It would be a much more fliud formation compared to a formation where the move must pass four layers (4-2-3-1).

Once the season gets going, Mourinho could even play 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 with the duo of Drogba and Costa forward and fool us all.

But for now, I’d like to remind Jose, this. You won your first Premier League title playing 4-3-3. So, please keep it that way, and hope for the same result.

Stats courtesy: Squawka