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After game day 10, the English Premier League is now more than a quarter of the way through its seasonal journey.
On the surface, this has the potential to be one of the closest title races ever. There is only a 5 point difference between the top five teams. Liverpool and Manchester City are neck and neck at the top of the table, separated only by goal difference. And Chelsea lies a further two points behind the leaders, and therefore within comfortable striking distance.
Despite this apparent closeness, the reality is quite different. In reality, Man City are significantly outperforming all their rivals who are having to perform at full stretch to keep pace with the Cityzens.
City have the best attack...
Consider how City are performing against the rest of the league in terms of attacking statistics. City rank first in the EPL on every measure that matters. They have scored the most goals, had the most shots, had the most shots on target and have a higher expected goals total than anyone else in the league.
...and also the best defence
Although City under Pep Guardiola have always been acknowledged for their attacking verve, it is also true to say that they have been perceived to be somewhat flaky in defence. The memory of Liverpool's forward line tearing City apart on three separate occasions last year sticks in the memory.
Perhaps surprisingly, then, it is interesting to note that City also have the best defensive statistics in the league - by far. Indeed their percentage superiority is even more consistent and pronounced than for their attacking play.
City are ranked first on each of the main measures - least goals conceded, least shots against, least shots on target against and least expected goals conceded. Again, what is significant is just how much better City are than the next best team in each metric - ranging from 25% to 33%. This is not just a marginal differential.
City should be further ahead at the top of the table
Expected goals is a useful measure of the number of goals that a team can expect to score given the chances it creates and the opportunities it allows the opposing team. It provides a good measure of the actual performance of a team and as a predictor of future outcomes.
When expected goals for and against are calculated on a match by match basis, it is possible to calculate a figure of expected points over the season to date. On this basis, City have more or less achieved the number of points expected from their performance (26 actually achieved v 26.5 expected).
Conversely, both Liverpool and Chelsea have gained more points than might be expected. Based on expected goals, Liverpool should have 21 points (5 fewer than their current tally) while Chelsea should have 22 (compared with 24 actual)
This analysis would tend to support how the respective teams have genuinely performed this year. Liverpool have certainly ridden their luck at times and could conceivably have dropped additional points against City, Huddersfield and Chelsea.
In turn, Chelsea had some fortune against Arsenal in particular, when they conceded a large number of goal scoring opportunities and probably should have been defeated on the basis of chances created.
In short, City's rivals have obtained more points than their performances merit. They are benefiting from a greater degree of 'luck' than City until this point of the season. Luck tends to be random, and over the course of the season is likely to start balancing out. Unlike their rivals, City have not had to rely on luck to date. Their points tally fairly reflects their performance.
Therefore, City should win the league comfortably...
Given City's overall superiority on such a range of important statistical measures, they are deservedly clear favourites to retain their title. Such is the margin of superiority, don't be surprised to see City open up a significant gap over the next 10 games and ultimately win the title with a degree of comfort.
