Will Arsenal first-team regulars be sacrificed for the new signings coming in?

So transfer speculation continues and we all get sucked in. We just cannot help ourselves, can we?

Who are we bringing in? Stellar signings, returning heroes and unproven kids are all in the media mix and frenzy. All Arsenal supporters seem to want the world and even those whose opinions and knowledge I respect seen to lose all sense of reality in June.

One example would be the amount of Gunners who greedily want Rooney and Higuain. Now call me old fashioned, as I know I am, but if we brought into 2 such high profile and highly paid players, one assumes they would both play more often than not? If this is the case, logic would suggest a change in system to accommodate 2 strikers? If we continue on this thread and accept my logic, this means some variation of 442, perhaps a United 4411?

This is cool except that we then have 5 full internationals, all that would come into play for the front 2 positions in those formations, as we have Podolski, Giroud and Walcott. The latter is not a right midfielder in a 4 man midfield, any more than he is the sole striker in a 1.

Now whether you agree with the chain of circumstances I present above or not, it is hard to argue that any team could keep 5 strikers content even with vigorous rotation. I would argue that even the champions Manchester United struggled to keep all 4 of theirs happy and I certainly recall rumblings from the Hernandez camp at times.

So the question I keep coming back to is just how many new signings can we make this summer without shifting actual 1st team squad members? I am not talking about bit-part players here either. I commonly hear or read of fans saying we need a new spine and I have said it myself, I also see calls for a flying winger. So even if we ignore the bit part players and the returning loanees, how many players can any top side GENUINELY keep happy?

Best place to start would be to look at what it takes to win the Premier League, seeing as I assume that is our realistic aspiration, both as fans and as a club. Obviously, any theory to be tested needs assumptions and not all will agree with mine. I am however endeavouring to be balanced so I have just selected players who have started at least 10 of the 38 matches for the relevant champions. So let’s have a look at the regulars in the title winning squads in the last 4 seasons:-

Man United 2012/13	Starts	Off Bench	Total
Van Persie	35	3	38
Carrick	34	2	36
Evra	34	0	34
Valencia	24	6	30
De Gea	28	0	28
Ferdinand	26	2	28
Rooney	22	5	27
Welbeck	12	14	26
Evans	21	2	23
Da Silva	21	1	23
Cleverley	18	4	22
Giggs	12	10	22
Hernandez	10	12	22
Kagawa	17	3	20
Vidic	18	1	19
Young	17	2	19
Jones	13	4	17
Total – 17

So United only had 17 players who started 10 or more games in their title winning campaign. Interesting to note that in a system commonly fielding 2 strikers, Hernandez and Welbeck only started 22 matches between them as 3rd and 4th choices, behind Rooney and RVP.

Man City 2011/12	Starts	Off Bench	Total
Hart	38	0	38
Silva	33	3	36
Barry	31	3	34
Aguero	31	3	34
Y Toure	31	1	32
Kompany	31	0	31
Lescott	30	1	31
Nasri	24	4	28
Dzeko	16	14	30
Richards	23	6	29
Clichy	28	0	28
Milner	17	9	26
Johnson	10	16	26
Balotelli	14	9	23
Zabaleta	18	3	21
De Jong	11	10	21
Total – 16

City won the title with only 16 players commencing 10 or more matches. Again, the league was won with several tactical changes during games from week to week, but predominantly with 2 strikers on the field. Even with this being the case, only 3 not including, Tevez started 10 or more times. Note also that there were only in truth 6 midfielders used in the whole campaign – Barry, De Jong, Toure, Silva, Nasri and Milner.

Man United 2010/11	Starts	Off Bench	Total
Vidic	35	0	35
Evra	34	1	35
Van der Sar	33	0	33
Nani	31	2	33
Berbatov	24	8	32
Rooney	25	3	28
Carrick	23	5	28
Hernandez	15	12	27
Fletcher	24	2	26
Giggs	19	6	25
Scholes	16	6	22
O’Shea	18	2	22
Ferdinand	19	0	19
Anderson	14	4	18
Smalling	11	5	16
Da Silva	14	1	15
Park	13	2	15
Evans	11	2	13
Total – 18

In 2010/11, United claimed their title back from Chelsea using only 18 players in the main (starting 10 or more) and only used 3 strikers, again in a 2 striker system. (so could we truly rotate 4 or 5?) 6 of the players who featured regularly in this season do not feature as regular starters only 2 years later!

Chelsea 2009/10	Starts	Off Bench	Total
Terry	37	0	37
Lampard	35	1	36
Cech	34	0	34
Anelka	31	2	33
Malouda	26	7	33
Drogba	31	1	32
Ballack	26	6	32
Ivanovic	25	3	28
A Cole	25	2	27
J Cole	14	12	26
Mikel	21	4	25
Kalou	11	12	23
Carvalho	22	1	23
Deco	14	5	19
Zhirkov	10	7	17
Alex	13	3	16
Essien	13	1	14
Ferreira	11	2	13
Total – 18

Chelsea won their first Premiership in 4 years and again we see only 18 players started 10 or more games. In a system that generally operated as a 433, there were only 6 regular midfielders. Also worth noting that in the main the central striker berth, singular, was almost entirely occupied by one man, Drogba.

So what of our own team and squad used in the league last season?

Arsenal2012/13	Starts	Off Bench	Total
Cazorla	37	1	38
Ramsey	21	15	36
Arteta	34	0	34
Mertesacker	33	1	34
Giroud	24	10	34
Podolski	25	8	33
Walcott	24	8	32
Vermaelen	25	4	29
Gibbs	23	4	27
Szczesny	25	0	25
Sagna	25	0	25
Koscielny	20	5	25
Wilshere	20	5	25
Oxkade-Chamberlain	11	14	25
Gervinho	12	6	18
Jenkinson	14	0	14
Diaby	10	1	11
Total – 18

Now when looking at the above, we can obviously add Monreal who arrived in Jan, which gives us 19 Arsenal 1st team squad members who played enough football to feel like an integral part of the squad. This does not include Rosicky who would have certainly played more if not for long term injury, so call it 20.

Now most fans seem to want a new keeper, centre back, defensive midfielder, creative midfielder/winger and at least one striker. If we did add 4 signings this summer that would take us to 24 genuine first teamers, not including any of the obvious so-called ‘deadwood.’

Now given that I personally feel I have proved beyond any doubt, using the squads of the last 4 Premiership champions, that 17 or 18 is the likely number of regularly used players, something had to give. This may all seem rather simplistic but we will not use more than 18, max 19 players in 2013/14 in our attempts to win the league, FA Cup and ECL.

So I would argue that whilst most fans are screaming for big money, big name stars to have and instant impact, just understand the implications. Please don’t be under the illusion that some players that we are all fond off can still be part of the plans. For example, if we sign a defensive midfielder such as Fellaini, Arteta will not play. You may say he will be pushed forward and perhaps he will but then one of Ramsey or Wilshere may not play. Of course, it is a squad game and we will need many midfielders over the season, but even with a 3 man centre midfield, 6 is enough. The harsh reality therefore is that Diaby and Rosciky will not play should we have a CM addition. I am not saying this is a problem but please don’t believe that all the players who dragged us to fourth, such as Arteta and Rosicky, would still have major roles to play.

Similarly in attack, if we invest in a new striker, which I am sure we will, and retain our current shape, Giroud will not play. In the same way as a returning RVP ruined a then free-scoring Chamakh, the arrival of a Higuain or similar threatens similar for Giroud. Again, I am not suggesting we should not do it but the implications are profound and need to be acknowledged. If we have a new striker and Cazorla stays on the left we will have both Podolski and Giroud on the bench. One international centre forward on the bench is feasible but two I would suggest is tricky and disruptive. Many will say that United and City have 4 top strikers but I reiterate that both sides play with a 2 striker system, which Arsenal do not. Even if we return to the formation that drove Wenger’s success, as I hinted in the introduction, that brings Theo into play as well. (As an aside, I am convinced a fully fit second season Podolski has a huge role to play.)

So in summary the implications of this summer are way beyond casting of the deadwood and spending big. Losing those who were not near the first team last season or on loan is in itself not straight forward as we have seen until now with the ‘Great Dane,’ Chammy and Djourou still firmly on the wage bill. If we bring in 3 outfield additions who are starters, as I believe we will, that means that 3 of those who featured regularly last season also need to move aside, and some who featured heavily will play less.

If we strengthen where Wenger has suggested, then 3 or 4 of these players from the regulars list will be definite surplus – Gervinho, Diaby, Rosicky and even Vermaelen and Arteta, Captain and Vice Captain. Many won’t cry over The Ivorian and he is marketable and many will not shed a tear over the exit of Diaby. However, I suspect many will balk at the idea of Arteta not featuring. However if a Fellaini or equivalent did arrive, the he will play and he will play where Mikel played. If Wenger perseveres with Wilshere at CAM, Arteta and Ramsey can share the role alongside the DM but what if Wenger also buys a Cesc, or equivalent?

We know that he will press on with his core of young Brits so depending on who arrives, I suggest Coquelin, Gervinho, Rosicky and Diaby will miss out and Arteta, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski and Giroud will see far less football than they did in 2012/13. As a sentimentalist who gets too attached to long serving players, I need to come to terms with this and I am doing so but I just think too many don’t think beyond the exciting headlines.

It is not a case of be careful what you wish for, because we need to add quality to a squad that finished like challengers. It is however a case of understand what you wish for!