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Liverpool play Bournemouth this weekend after two frustrating draws with Leicester and West Ham. Will history repeat itself for the Reds?
Teams now have a plan for Liverpool. West Ham had a plan, and Leicester had a specific plan. In the first half of the season it seemed like teams playing those at the top of the table - Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and, to some extent, Chelsea - were trying to stay afloat. Liverpool's manager described it as buying a lottery ticket.
Now, however, these teams have plans.
Leicester, West Ham and Bournemouth are all similar teams in regards to league position and statistics. The numbers show a striking similarity in ball possession, shots per game, dribbles per game, chances created and pass completion percentage. The figures confirm what we think; they're all mid-table sides with talented players.
Heat maps from Liverpool's matches with Leicester and West Ham show that both teams had fast wingers waiting out wide. On the left Demarai Gray and Marc Albrighton were taking turns for Leicester, and for West Ham Felipe Anderson was cheating on the wings, standing on the touchline, waiting for play to switch so they could dribble at pace at Liverpool's current problematic position of right back.
Both of Liverpool's full-backs, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Joe Gomez, are injured, so midfielders Jordan Henderson and James Milner have filled that role. The Foxes and the Hammers tried to take advantage of that problem, and Bournemouth could do so as well.
However, there is one key difference. Bournemouth don't have specific plans for specific games as much as they have a philosophy. The team plays the way it plays no matter what.
If you think of managers just like people living in the ordinary world, then Eddie Howe is a man who's built up a nest egg; he has savings and he spends them frugally. He has much credit with Bournemouth fans and the board.
Claude Puel of Leicester is living pay-cheque to pay-cheque. He needs to figure something out every week, frantically tipping over his sofa cushions to see if he can find a few pennies to go to the pub. He is a manager on the verge of getting fired if results go against him.
The point is that the two sides Liverpool have drawn against recently have been reactive, while Bournemouth's philosophy trends towards the proactive no matter whom they play. They won't be pleased with defending their penalty area and lumping the ball towards a fast lad who can run at Milner, the way both West Ham and Leicester did.
Bournemouth want to play, and play well, so that they can enact their philosophy, retain the ball, work it wide, get their angles right. That's why, out of these three teams, they have the most amount of shots inside the area.
This tendency might end up being a positive for Liverpool. The Reds have struggled with fast lads out wide, and Bournemouth has those quick players who can cause any team problems, but they'll work within the framework of the team.
Ryan Fraser won't just stand on the sideline waiting to get the ball so he can dribble at pace at an aging midfielder. He'll come in and play and work so he can get his runs beyond the line and his one-on-ones.
That doesn't mean Liverpool will pick up three points; it just means the game will play out differently. Bournemouth will try to retain the ball, to keep it and play; the onus won't be directly on Liverpool to break down 10 men with each possession they gain.
The game will ebb, and the game will flow, and both teams will have chances to come out on top. That means that in all likelihood, history won't repeat itself for Liverpool.
