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In two weeks’ time, one of the biggest shows of 2023, UFC 290, will go down. The headliner will see Yair Rodriguez challenge Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight title.
Volkanovski has long been considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, so can Rodriguez really beat him?
If ‘El Pantera’ were to hand Volkanovski his first defeat at 145lbs, it’d be a truly huge upset – but there’s definitely a chance it could happen.
Here are three reasons why Yair Rodriguez could upset Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 290.
#3 Yair Rodriguez could capitalise if Alexander Volkanovski is still affected by his loss to Islam Makhachev
If Yair Rodriguez can upset Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 290, then he’ll become the first man to ever defeat the Australian at 145lbs.
However, he will no longer be able to hand Volkanovski his first defeat in the UFC, as ‘Alexander the Great’ saw his unbeaten run come to an end against Islam Makhachev in February.
Volkanovski didn’t take a beating from Makhachev, and in fact, over the five rounds he almost did enough to defeat the Dagestani to become a two-division champion.
Despite this, the fact that he ended up suffering his first defeat in the octagon must’ve stung badly. It was Volkanovski’s first defeat since 2013, after all.
How the Australian bounces back from this defeat is anyone’s guess. On one hand, he could simply shrug it off and continue to dominate his natural weight class, just as his teammate Israel Adesanya did when he failed to become a double champ in 2021.
On the other hand, though, his aura of invincibility may now be gone and he might begin to question his abilities.
If that’s the case, and he isn’t mentally right coming into this fight, then he could be in trouble. Rodriguez is in his prime, just dismantled a tough opponent in Josh Emmett, and clearly believes in his skills.
Essentially, even if ‘El Pantera’ isn’t a better fighter than Volkanovski, there’s a chance that he could be catching ‘Alexander the Great’ at the perfect time.
#2 Yair Rodriguez's can finish his opponents at any given moment
One thing that makes Yair Rodriguez such a dangerous fighter is the fact that he has finishing abilities in all areas, both on the feet and on the ground.
More importantly, though, he’s such an explosive fighter that he seems to have the ability to put his foes away at any moment, without really setting a fight-ending shot or hold up as such.
‘El Pantera’ holds a UFC record of 10-2 with one No Contest, and half of his wins have gone the distance.
It’s the other five wins that are more telling when it comes to this fight, though. Ignoring the injury suffered by Brian Ortega in their 2022 bout, the rest all came from similar situations.
Essentially, Rodriguez caught his opponents unaware with shots that seemed to come literally from nowhere.
The Mexican was clearly losing to Chan Sung Jung when he landed his famous upward elbow strike to knock him out in the final second of the fifth round. Nobody could’ve seen such a shot coming, least of all Jung.
The same could be said for his switch kick knockout of Andre Fili in 2016. Sure, Rodriguez was probably winning the fight at the time, but nobody expected him to throw such a low-percentage strike quite so perfectly.
What does this all mean for his fight with Alexander Volkanovski? Essentially, that ‘Alexander the Great’ cannot afford to relax for a second.
Unless he takes Rodriguez out early, which doesn’t seem likely given his lack of quick finishes, then Volkanovski will need to be careful throughout the entire fight.
Even if he’s winning come the later rounds, ‘El Pantera’ could still find a way to land some kind of crazy strike to take him out – making him arguably the Australian’s toughest opponent to date.
#1 Yair Rodriguez’ unpredictable nature could throw Alexander Volkanovski off his game
There’s absolutely no denying that Alexander Volkanovski is a truly great fighter. After all, the Australian has now held the UFC featherweight title for the best part of four years, and he has defeated a who’s who of 145lbers in the last few years.
However, there’s definitely an argument that, even though he isn’t necessarily the most talented foe to face Volkanovski, Yair Rodriguez could be the most dangerous.
That’s because, more than any other fighter in the UFC right now, ‘El Pantera’ is totally unpredictable inside the octagon.
With Max Holloway, for instance, Volkanovski would’ve known exactly what he was up against. ‘Blessed’ is widely considered the second-best 145lber in the world, but while he’s difficult to stop, everyone knows what he’s likely to do in the octagon.
Holloway’s attack is almost purely based around his combination boxing, with the odd bit of opportunistic grappling thrown in.
His skills in those areas make him an amazing fighter, but as we saw in their three bouts, Volkanovski was able to gameplan for those skills successfully.
Yair Rodriguez, on the other hand, is nearly impossible to gameplan for because it’s hard to say exactly what he’s going to do.
He isn’t the most technical striker, but he possesses the ability to throw wild kicks from any angle, and is equally adept at throwing them to the body and the head.
In some fights, he’s more than happy to push the pace and go on the hunt, but in other fights, he seems more comfortable countering and waiting for his foe to come to him.
On the ground, meanwhile, Rodriguez is more than happy to risk being trapped in a bad spot in order to go for a submission, as we saw when he caught Josh Emmett in a triangle choke earlier this year.
Volkanovski has dealt with top-class strikers, top–class grapplers, and outright brawlers, but he’s definitely not faced someone as unpredictable as ‘El Pantera’. And that may well prove to be the difference when the two men throw down at UFC 290, leading to a major upset.
