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UFC 292 goes down this weekend, and in a highly-anticipated headliner, Aljamain Sterling will defend his bantamweight title against Sean O’Malley.
This fight has been brewing for a long time, and it’s arguable that the UFC would prefer Aljamain Sterling to lose to ‘Sugar’.
But can Sean O’Malley really beat ‘The Funk Master’? He’s undoubtedly a great fighter, and any top-level fighter can beat another if things go perfectly. Despite this, O’Malley winning feels doubtful.
Here are five reasons why Aljamain Sterling will beat Sean O’Malley at UFC 292.
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#5. Sean O’Malley has never faced someone on the level of Aljamain Sterling before
Sean O’Malley is undoubtedly a talented fighter, but it’s also arguable that he hasn’t earned his shot at the UFC bantamweight title in a conventional manner.
Sure, ‘Sugar’ became the division’s top contender by edging out former champ Petr Yan in a semi-controversial decision last year, but prior to that, he hadn’t cut through the division’s top contenders.
In fact, of the current top fifteen at bantamweight – excluding champ Aljamain Sterling – O’Malley has only fought two ranked fighters. He beat Yan, but was TKO’d by No.6 ranked Marlon Vera in 2020, losing his unbeaten record in the process.
It isn’t like his previous opponents were highly ranked when he fought them, either. The likes of Thomas Almeida and Eddie Wineland were past their prime, while Kris Moutinho and Raulian Paiva weren’t that highly rated.
Essentially, then, while ‘Sugar’ has a tremendous highlight reel and a lot of hype, he’s never faced anyone on Sterling’s level, outside of Yan.
Sterling, on the other hand, is battle-hardened against the majority of the world’s top bantamweights. There’s no question around his experience at all.
With that considered, O’Malley is going to have to take a major step forward if he wants to win this fight, and it’s hard to imagine him making such a grand leap with any kind of ease. Therefore, ‘The Funk Master’ seems more likely to win.
#4. Aljamain Sterling’s durability is underrated
It’s arguable that Sean O’Malley hits just as hard, if not harder than any other bantamweight on the UFC’s roster right now.
‘Sugar’ has a near-unmatched grasp of range and distance, and when he lands cleanly on opponents, as he did against Eddie Wineland, he can utterly wreck them with a single shot.
However, Aljamain Sterling may well be one of the more underrated fighters in the world when it comes to sheer durability and being able to absorb punishment.
‘The Funk Master’ has been on the UFC’s roster for almost a decade at this point, having debuted in the octagon back in 2014.
In 18 bouts in the octagon, he’s been knocked out twice, but both of the shots that put him down were ridiculously heavy. Petr Yan downed him with an illegal knee – and was disqualified for it – while Sterling basically dived right into a knee strike from Marlon Moraes.
Outside of those two moments, it’s hard to remember ‘The Funk Master’ ever being hurt badly, let alone suffering a knockdown.
When you consider some of the shots that Sterling ate against Yan, particularly in their first meeting, it’s remarkable that his chin remains as solid as it is.
O’Malley does have the power to knock out any fighter, but the idea of him simply touching Sterling and putting him down and out seems outlandish.
Instead, if ‘The Funk Master’ can absorb some heavy shots from ‘Sugar’, he should be able to get inside him – and deal with him from there.
#3. Aljamain Sterling has arguably less pressure on him coming into this fight
In most UFC title fights, it’s probably fair to argue that the champion has more pressure on their shoulders than the challenger.
After all, the champion is the fighter with something to lose, given that they’re considered to be at the top of the mountain. Climbing to the top is one thing, but staying there for a lengthy period of time is another thing altogether.
Given that his title reign began in early 2021, then, Aljamain Sterling has been at the top for some time now. Despite that, in this bout, it feels like there’s more pressure on challenger Sean O’Malley.
That’s because not only has ‘Sugar’ been one of the most noisy trash-talkers in the division for some time now, he’s also widely considered one of the UFC’s golden gooses. If you listen to many fans and rivals, O’Malley has been protected in order to build him for this very title shot.
If ‘Sugar’ wins, the likelihood is that his star power will go through the roof. He might not reach Conor McGregor levels, but he could easily achieve a similar star status as say, Israel Adesanya or Islam Makhachev.
However, O’Malley simply hasn’t been in this kind of high-pressure situation before, meaning that there must be a lot weighing on his mind coming in.
Sterling, on the other hand, is used to being written off by both the UFC and some fans. He probably won’t even feel any pressure coming into a clash with an opponent who, realistically, isn’t as proven as Henry Cejudo or TJ Dillashaw.
With all the pressure on his shoulders, then, O’Malley could wilt in this bout, allowing Sterling to come through for the win.
#2. Aljamain Sterling is not a bad striker by any means
In the crudest sense, it could be argued that the UFC bantamweight title bout between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley is a classic clash of striker vs. grappler.
Essentially, Sterling will look to drag O’Malley to the ground and hunt for a submission, while ‘Sugar’ will hope to keep things standing and snipe at the champion from range.
Despite this, it’d be unfair to write off Sterling’s striking skills.
‘The Funk Master’ has never knocked an opponent out on the feet in the UFC, with his two TKO victories coming from ground-and-pound. However, he’s a more than capable striker, particularly when it comes to using his kicks.
Sterling does prefer to use his striking to set up his takedowns, but if you look at the stats, it’s actually quite common to see him outlanding his foes on the feet.
In fact, in fights that left the first round, the only opponent to ever outland him from a statistical point of view was Petr Yan. Against kickboxer Jimmie Rivera, for instance, Sterling landed a total of 101 significant strikes against 24 the other way.
It’d be incredibly risky for Sterling to keep this fight standing, as O’Malley packs far more power into his shots and can knock anyone out. If the fight doesn’t hit the ground straight away, though, it’d be unfair to count ‘The Funk Master’ out – meaning he’d have a chance of winning a striking bout, too.
#1. Aljamain Sterling is the best grappler in the bantamweight division
Perhaps the biggest reason for believing Aljamain Sterling will win this fight is his incredible grappling skill. Put simply, ‘The Funk Master’ is the best grappler in the bantamweight division, bar none.
Not only is Sterling an absolutely fantastic wrestler, but from a jiu-jitsu perspective, he’s phenomenal too. If he takes an opponent’s back, he’s nearly impossible to shake off and will usually find a way to submit his foe.
The evidence for this can be seen throughout his octagon career. In his last fight, Sterling landed four takedowns on 2008 Olympic gold medallist Henry Cejudo, and enjoyed four minutes of full control time on the ground.
2020 saw him become the only man to ever submit Cory Sandhagen, an excellent grappler in his own right, while he also grounded Petr Yan and dominated him on the ground in their second bout in 2022.
How does Sean O’Malley’s grappling stack up? From what we’ve seen of ‘Sugar’, he’s definitely talented on the mat, and he’s been bold enough to take part in a number of notable grappling competitions.
However, he’s also a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while Sterling is a black belt, and it’s also notable that his grappling coach – Augusto Mendes – was whitewashed by ‘The Funk Master’ on the ground in their 2017 clash.
Essentially, the chances of O’Malley getting the better of Sterling on the ground are slim, and this fight is likely to hit the mat at least once. With that considered, it’s hard to see Sterling failing to win.
