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The biggest fight in the UFC this month is undoubtedly the clash between lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski – but is the latter making the right call in moving up in weight?
Alexander Volkanovski has undoubtedly been a great featherweight champion, but in many ways, his move to 155lbs and quest to become a UFC double champion is hugely risky.
Will it pay off for him? Essentially, only if he beats Makhachev. If he loses, which is what many fans expect to happen, it could harm his career hugely.
Here are five reasons why Alexander Volkanovski’s move to 155lbs could be a mistake.
#5. Alexander Volkanovski may struggle to get back to 145lbs if he chooses to do so
One major risk for any fighter who changes weight class is that they run the risk of struggling to move back to their initial division if they choose to do so.
In the case of Alexander Volkanovski, that’s definitely magnified in the sense that he’s unlikely to be going through what some would class as a “dirty bulk”, in other words adding excess body fat to his frame.
‘Alexander the Great’ has already suggested that he’s looking to “put the right weight on”, meaning he’s likely to be attempting to add lean muscle.
At the age of 34, then, if he adds muscle to his frame now, will he find it easy to lose it again if he wants to go back down to 145lbs? It’s difficult to say.
It feels more likely that he’d simply attempt a slightly more extreme weight cut, given there are only 10lbs separating the lightweight and featherweight limits.
That could be a massive risk for him. After all, it’s a well-known fact that weight cutting gets harder as a fighter ages, and if he does return to 145lbs, Volkanovski could be closer to 40 years old than 30 when he attempts it.
Essentially, this move up to 155lbs may see Volkanovski marooned in his new weight class whether he wins or loses against Islam Makhachev, and that might not be the best path for him going forward.
#4. Alexander Volkanovski may be too small to compete at 155lbs
When fighters move up in weight in the UFC, it’s usually because they’ve become too big for their initial weight class and have become a little sick of performing extreme weight cuts.
However, that isn’t really the case for Alexander Volkanovski. The Australian is clearly moving up to 155lbs to attempt to make history and become a simultaneous double champion, something only four other fighters have managed to do before.
Unlike former champions Max Holloway, Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo, ‘Alexander the Great’ has seemingly never struggled to hit the 145lbs mark.
Sure, he weighed over 200lbs as a rugby player in his youth, and has fought as highly as 170lbs in MMA. Despite this, though, the fact is that he just isn’t a big guy.
Volkanovski stands at just 5’6”, a stark contrast to the 5’11” Holloway and the 5’9” McGregor. Compared to some of the UFC’s top lightweights, too, he’s likely to be dwarfed. Notably, none of the UFC’s top ten at 155lbs stand any shorter than 5’8”.
Volkanovski can obviously move up to lightweight by packing muscle onto his frame, but unfortunately, he can’t make that frame itself any bigger.
So could the Australian make things work at 155lbs? He’s a great fighter, but the fact is that he might be too small to defeat the likes of Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier, even if he somehow gets past Islam Makhachev.
#3. Islam Makhachev is a tricky match for Alexander Volkanovski
When we’ve seen fighters move up in weight in a quest to become a double champion before, they’ve often moved up to fight a titleholder who, on paper, is a good match for them.
Stylistically, for instance, Eddie Alvarez was always a good match for Conor McGregor, and sure enough, ‘The Notorious’ knocked him out to become the UFC’s first simultaneous double champion.
The same could be said for when Georges St-Pierre moved up to take on Michael Bisping at 185lbs, and when BJ Penn moved to 170lbs to challenge Matt Hughes in 2004.
Is Islam Makhachev a stylistically good fight for Alexander Volkanovski, then? On the face of it, the answer would probably be no.
Firstly, in recent years, Volkanovski has been fighting against opponents primarily known for their striking, like Max Holloway and Jose Aldo. He did fight a grappler in the form of Brian Ortega in 2021, but ‘T-City’ has never been known for his wrestling skills.
Essentially, he hasn’t fought a top-notch wrestler since his 2018 bout with Chad Mendes, and ‘Money’ was arguably past his prime at that point.
Can Volkanovski really hope to fend off the takedowns of the monstrous Makhachev, who has basically taken down every fighter he’s ever fought? It’s hard to say, but it feels doubtful.
‘Alexander the Great’ might feel he’s got an advantage on the feet, but while Makhachev isn’t as technically gifted a striker as the likes of Holloway, Aldo and Volkanovski himself, he does hit extremely hard.
Essentially, on paper, this feels like a bad match for Volkanovski, making it a massive risk for him.
#2. Alexander Volkanovski could harm his legacy by moving to 155lbs
Only four fighters in UFC history have become simultaneous double champions, and it’s fair to say that all of them – Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes and Henry Cejudo – are legends.
However, there’s also an argument to suggest that the UFC’s three greatest champions remain Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva and Demetrious Johnson. None of the three became simultaneous double champions, but they all dominated their division for years.
GSP made a total of nine successful title defenses, Silva made ten, while Johnson set a promotional record of eleven.
Right now, Alexander Volkanovski is arguably on the cusp of becoming the greatest featherweight in UFC history, if he isn’t there already. He holds wins over Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, Max Holloway and Brian Ortega, and has four title defenses to his name.
However, Aldo made a UFC record of seven, so it’s arguable that ‘Alexander the Great’ isn’t quite on his level just yet.
Could Volkanovski overhaul Aldo in the near future? Absolutely. However, he may not be able to do that if he decides to move up to 155lbs and compete there, not unless he dominates the lightweight division. To be frank, that feels doubtful.
Even if Volkanovski overcomes Makhachev to become a double champion, unless he can do what Nunes did – and defend both of his titles – then his move up could well harm his legacy as a featherweight.
#1. Alexander Volkanovski’s aura of invincibility may diminish with a loss
In the best case scenario for Alexander Volkanovski, he’d defeat Islam Makhachev at UFC 284 to become not only the new lightweight champion, but just the fifth simultaneous double champ in UFC history.
In the worst case scenario, though, he’d suffer a loss to Makhachev and be sent crashing down to 145lbs with a bang.
On the face of it, a loss to the top lightweight in the world doesn’t sound too bad. Volkanovski could hopefully head back to 145lbs afterwards, and there’s no shame in losing to a fighter as good as Makhachev.
However, if he were to lose to the Dagestani, then he’d also lose his unbeaten UFC record, something he’s held since his octagon debut way back in 2016. In turn, that may well mean his aura of invincibility would be gone.
We’ve already seen an example of that happening with Israel Adesanya. At the end of 2020, ‘The Last Stylebender’ looked unstoppable. He’d won his first nine bouts in the octagon, held the UFC middleweight title, and looked well on his way to overhauling Anderson Silva as the GOAT at 185lbs.
However, Adesanya moved up to 205lbs in 2021 and was beaten by the larger Jan Blachowicz, ruining his chances of becoming a double champion.
While he was able to move back to 185lbs afterwards, he immediately looked more fallible. He managed to edge out Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier, but didn’t look as good as he’d done prior to his move up, and then lost to Alex Pereira at the end of 2022.
Right now, Volkanovski feels like the bogeyman at 145lbs, but if he were to lose to Makhachev, then that reputation might be erased – making him vulnerable to other featherweights.
Essentially, if that turns out to happen, then this move will definitely prove to be a mistake.
