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While a potential meeting in February has apparently been shot down, rumours persist that UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling will defend his title against former champion Henry Cejudo in 2023.
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Henry Cejudo never actually lost the UFC bantamweight title inside the octagon, but can ‘Triple C’ really return and dethrone Aljamain Sterling?
While Cejudo is impossible to truly count out of any fight, it feels like Sterling will upset him. Here are five reasons why Aljamain Sterling will beat Henry Cejudo if they fight in 2023.
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#5. Aljamain Sterling should enjoy a size advantage over Henry Cejudo
While he isn’t necessarily a hulking 135lber, current UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling should enjoy a decent size advantage over Henry Cejudo.
‘Funk Master’ stands at 5’7” and has a reach of 71”, making him one of the rangiest fighters in the bantamweight division. Cejudo, on the other hand, stands at just 5’4” and has a reach of 64”. Essentially, he has a far smaller frame than the current champion.
How will this play into the way the fight might go? Well, Sterling isn’t a precision striker as such, but he’s definitely capable of keeping shorter fighters at range using his jab and kicks. Against an opponent who does carry power like ‘Triple C’, that could be huge.
More to the point, Sterling’s size advantage might mean that Cejudo – one of the most accomplished wrestlers in UFC history – isn’t able to bulldoze him on the ground like he did some opponents, particularly at 125lbs.
Overall, there’s a reason Cejudo’s earlier UFC successes came as a flyweight, and that’s because his frame is far more suited to that weight class. Against a large bantamweight like Sterling, that could be decisive.
#4. Henry Cejudo is still somewhat unproven at 135lbs
Henry Cejudo can lay claim to being the rightful UFC bantamweight champion – he never lost his title in the octagon and simply vacated it when he retired. But there's definitely a few questions to ask of ‘Triple C’ as a 135lber, essentially because he’s only ever fought twice at bantamweight in the UFC.
Cejudo’s decision to move up to 135lbs came after he defeated then-reigning bantamweight champion – TJ Dillashaw – in 2019. But that fight was at 125lbs, where Dillashaw was highly depleted.
When Dillashaw was then stripped of his title for a positive drug test, it made sense for ‘Triple C’ to move up to attempt to become a double champion. He achieved just that by stopping Marlon Moraes.
From there, he didn’t fight for almost a year before beating Dominick Cruz in his only bantamweight defense and subsequently hanging his gloves up. Given that Cruz hadn’t fought since 2016 prior to that bout in 2020, it’s fair to bring the quality of that win into question.
Essentially, then, Cejudo’s only really valid win at 135lbs is over Moraes. Moraes, after the Cejudo loss, went on a serious skid and ended up retiring off the back of a run of bad losses.
When compared to Aljamain Sterling, who has victories over Petr Yan, Dillashaw, Cory Sandhagen, and Pedro Munhoz, Cejudo doesn’t even come close.
That doesn’t mean that ‘Triple C’ can’t beat 'Funk Master’, of course, more that it’d be crazy for anyone to outright favor him coming into their potential clash in 2023. There are simply too many questions hanging over the former Olympian at this weight.
#3. Aljamain Sterling might be a better grappler than Henry Cejudo
Given that he claimed an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling in the 2008 games, it’s fair to say that Henry Cejudo is one of the most highly credentialed wrestlers in UFC history. Put simply, Aljamain Sterling’s credentials as an NCAA Division III All-American pale in comparison.
While Cejudo might be a better wrestler, is it arguable that the current UFC bantamweight champion might be a better overall grappler? Absolutely.
In terms of the number of takedowns the two men average per 15 minutes in the octagon, the statistics are pretty similar. Sterling has averaged 1.98 takedowns with a 24% accuracy rate, while Cejudo averaged 2.12 with 33% accuracy when he was active.
However, it’s definitely fair to argue that once on the mat, Sterling is far more dangerous. He’s submitted four of his opponents in the octagon, including the ultra-tough Cory Sandhagen, and also dominated both Petr Yan and TJ Dillashaw on the ground.
Cejudo, on the other hand, did defeat Marlon Moraes with ground-and-pound, but he has no submission wins to his name in MMA.
‘Triple C’ does have a takedown defense rate of 93%, meaning Sterling might find it hard to put Cejudo on his back. But if the fight does hit the mat, which seems likely given Cejudo’s wrestling, it’s easy to imagine a scenario in which ‘Funk Master’ scrambles his way into a more dominant position.
With that considered, if he could take Cejudo’s back, it’d be hard to bet against him securing a choke submission.
#2. Henry Cejudo has been on the shelf for too long to come back at the top level
Henry Cejudo has been on the shelf for far too long to simply return to his old form and jump in at the top of the bantamweight division.
Cejudo hasn’t fought since his victory over Dominick Cruz in May 2020, and if Sterling has his way, their potential bout won’t take place until at least May 2023. Three years is a crazy time for any fighter to spend on the shelf, particularly when they weren’t all that active to begin with.
In the meantime, Sterling has competed in the octagon on four occasions, winning all four bouts. If it wasn't for a neck injury that forced him to have surgery in 2021, he probably would’ve been even more active.
Sure, there are examples of fighters returning from lengthy layoffs without missing a step. Cruz himself instantly comes to mind, as he won the bantamweight title after a long injury layoff. But even that layoff only lasted just over a year.
Cejudo will probably be 36 years old by the time he returns. He could well be too rusty to fully succeed – particularly against a champion on top of his game like ‘Funk Master’.
#1. Aljamain Sterling is one of the UFC’s most underrated fighters
‘Funk Master’ is arguably the most underrated fighter in the promotion right now.
Despite holding a hugely impressive record of 22-3, many fans still seem to write Sterling off before he steps into the octagon, regardless of his opponent.
Nobody really expected him to beat Petr Yan in their second bout – largely because Yan had been winning their first before he was disqualified – but ‘Funk Master’ proved them wrong by carving out a decision victory.
The same thing happened when he fought TJ Dillashaw in October. The naysayers kept talking him down but he defeated Dillashaw nonetheless.
Even his losses could be seen in a different light. Nobody can argue with the way in which Marlon Moraes knocked him out. However, his defeats to Raphael Assuncao and Bryan Caraway both came via split decision. The Assuncao fight, in particular, should probably have gone the other way.
The truth is that ‘Funk Master’ is a truly brilliant fighter who ought to be looked upon in the same light as other great champions. Despite Cejudo being a great fighter in his own right a couple of years ago, Aljamain Sterling has more than surpassed his achievements at 135lbs.
