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At UFC 278, Luke Rockhold will make his long-awaited return to the octagon. It has been three years since fight fans have had the pleasure of watching Rockhold fight. At one point in time, the AKA product seemed destined for a run as the UFC's next great middleweight champion.
He dethroned Chris Weidman in spectacular fashion, dealing the All-American a beating unlike any other: one that almost certainly led to a stark decline in Weidman's ability to absorb punishment. Yet, in an ironic twist of fate, Rockhold's chin seemed to suffer the same fate he had dealt Weidman. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu phenom lost his middleweight title to Michael Bisping by knockout in a shocking upset in his subsequent bout.
With no title defense to his name, Luke Rockhold bounced back against David Branch, only to suffer brutal knockout losses in his next two fights. Afterward, the former UFC middleweight champion took a sabbatical from the sport. Now, three years later, he is set to return against former title challenger Paulo Costa in the co-main event of UFC 278.
While many have written off Rockhold's chances against the Brazilian bruiser, this list outlines 5 reasons why he will prove to be a tougher foe for 'Borrachinha' than many expect.
#5. Rockhold's check hook
Luke Rockhold is not the best boxer in the middleweight division, but that is because he doesn't have to be. Still, he remains an intelligent striker with a keen awareness of his own limitations when it comes to striking.
For this reason, Rockhold is primarily a kicker. However, when his opponents opt to bypass his kicks by applying incessant forward pressure, the former UFC middleweight champion counters their overzealous approach with a check hook.
Rockhold's left hook was on point against Lyoto Machida. Watch the highlights below:
Luke Rockhold is an enormously powerful middleweight, and his check right hook is evidence of that. The AKA standout fully turns his hips into this punch, pivoting to pour as much of his body weight into the blow as possible. As a check hook, the punch acts as a counter to opponents who are eager to close the distance against him. Paulo Costa is one such foe.
Costa, by nature, is overaggressive, applying immediate pressure while neglecting his own defense. Worse still, The Brazilian's boxing consists almost entirely of hooks, meaning he is often in range to be countered since the short arc of a hook means that a fighter intent on landing a hook must stand close enough for their opponent to land a hook of their own. Due to this, Costa will willingly run himself into the check right hook that dropped fellow Brazilian Lyoto Machida.
#4. Luke Rockhold's kicks
The American is an extremely powerful kicker. Only Yoel Romero was able to simply brush aside the threat of Luke Rockhold's kicks. However, the former middleweight champion makes liberal use of his kicks.
His size and natural explosiveness render them threatening enough, but the manner in which he turns his hips into every kick to commit all of his body weight into the blow is why even when his opponents block his kicks, they only succeed in injuring their own arms.
As a striker, Paulo Costa moves behind a high guard when pressuring, exhibiting a deeper concern with shielding his head from damage. Unfortunately, this single-minded approach leaves the Brazilian's midsection exposed, which is an ill-advised predicament against a kicker of Luke Rockhold's caliber, least of all because the former champion often targets the body as he digs his shin into his opponent's midsection.
A prolonged assault on his midsection from a kicker like Luke Rockhold will not only severely damage Costa's body, but it will deplete 'Borrachinha's cardio.
#3. Luke Rockhold's grappling
While Luke Rockhold's check right hook will serve as an active deterrence for Costa's aggressive approach, there is a likely chance that the Brazilian will manage to successfully close the distance several times during the course of their upcoming bout. However, Rockhold is a layered fighter, and his clinch game will act as a proper counter, even if it does not lead to takedowns.
Whenever his opponents get close enough, the Californian steps in with them, immediately digging for underhooks to secure a bodylock. While the former champion's endgoal is to trip his foe to the ground, which he is well-equipped to do against Costa due to not only matching the Brazilian in strength but also using his superior length and height for greater leverage in the clinch, Rockhold can use the clinch to simply smother Costa's offense.
Any time 'Borrachinha' steps inside, Luke Rockhold can smother his opponent's punches by quickly clinching him, denying Costa the chance to extend any striking engagements.
#2. Luke Rockhold's cardio
The Californian is a surprisingly tireless fighter despite his wealth of fast-twitch muscle fibers. Rockhold has twice gone five rounds in his Strikeforce days, while his brutal win over Chris Weidman at UFC 194 was a four-round war that never saw Rockhold's cardio drop.
Paulo Costa, on the other hand, is a different story. While the Brazilian possesses serviceable cardio, his high output of strikes means he expends enormous amounts of energy.
Against Yoel Romero, a low-volume counter-striker, Costa's cardio dipped halfway through the 2nd round before truly plummeting in the 3rd. Curiously, Costa is able to retain significant amounts of muscular endurance even when his cardiovascular energy fails him, allowing him to strike with relative power even when tired. However, against Rockhold, Costa's cardio will be truly tested.
Not only does Costa's cardio decrease naturally, but it will struggle even more against Rockhold's savage kicks to the body and his constant clinching that will certainly sap Costa's energy as the Californian leans on him, forcing him to carry his weight.
#1. Paulo Costa's power is not what it seems
Much is made of Luke Rockhold possessing a glass chin. Similarly, Paulo Costa's punching power is greatly exaggerated due to the latter's high number of KO/TKO wins. However, context matters. Paulo Costa is a high-volume puncher who overwhelms his opponents with a constant barrage of punches and kicks to the head and body. Most of his knockouts arise from the Brazilian simply swarming his foes until they crumble under the violent storm he casts.
Very few of his knockouts are one-punch finishes that knock his foes out cold. In fact, Costa has very few knockouts where he even drops his opponents badly and knocks them unconscious with follow-up punches. His punches are more clubbing blows than one-punch knockout strikes. Thus, Costa does not present the usual power threat that led to most of Rockhold's knockout losses.
Jan Błachowicz is an enormously powerful light heavyweight who cuts down from heavyweight. Yoel Romero is arguably the most explosive fighter in UFC history, with a seismic degree of knockout power. Similarly, Vitor Belfort is a freak athlete who was also on TRT at the time and held the UFC record for the most knockouts in the promotion's history before the rise of Derrick Lewis.
Only Michael Bisping is an outlier, and his knockout came due to a defensive lapse on Rockhold's part. Thus, against Costa, Rockhold will not face the kind of danger that many fight fans might believe he will, affording him a better chance of staying in the bout.
