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#4. From the UFC’s perspective, Tony Ferguson is expendable
Given that Nate Diaz’s next fight will not only be the final one on his current contract, but is also likely to be his final one for the UFC point blank, the truth is that the promotion probably doesn’t want him to win.
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Not only would Diaz be able to jump ship to a competitor like Bellator MMA fresh off a big victory, but if the UFC were to attempt to re-sign him, he’d command a much larger fee than he would do off the back of three straight losses.
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With that in mind, then, while matching Diaz with a stylistically tricky opponent like Khamzat Chimaev might be tempting, the very nature of the UFC means that any fighter can beat any other on a given night. Essentially, putting a rising or current star against Diaz is too risky.
That’s why a fight with Tony Ferguson makes sense. ‘El Cucuy’ was once considered one of the very best lightweights in the world. Rght now, though, he’s on a four-fight losing streak and hasn’t actually won a bout since his 2018 victory over Anthony Pettis.
Ferguson still holds some name value, of course, but from a UFC perspective, he’s basically expendable at this point, as they could easily sell him as past-his-prime should Diaz find a way to defeat him.
From this point of view, this fight would be win/win for the UFC. If Ferguson were to beat Diaz, then he’d send him packing with a loss. If he were to lose, then it wouldn’t matter all that much. With that considered, it’s the perfect fight to make.
#3. Tony Ferguson might have a decent chance of beating Nate Diaz – which would please the UFC
As was previously mentioned, the nature of Nate Diaz’s next fight being the final one on his current UFC contract makes booking it pretty delicate. The last thing the promotion would want to do would be to send the Stockton-based fighter to a rival off the back of a big win.
As an opponent, then, while Tony Ferguson – off the back of a four-fight losing streak – is expendable, does he stand a chance of beating Diaz regardless? The honest answer is definitely yes.
‘El Cucuy’ certainly hasn’t looked at his best in his last four fights, and at the age of 38, it’s understandable that he’d be slowing down. After all, he’s taken some serious damage over his eight-year career with the UFC.
However, stylistically at least, Diaz isn’t a bad match for him by any means. Sure, the Stockton native can box brilliantly and has venomous submission skills on the ground, but he isn’t likely to outpower Ferguson like Beneil Dariush did, nor does he hold the knockout power of Michael Chandler or Justin Gaethje.
If you consider Ferguson’s own striking skills – and to be fair, he did show them against Chandler before being KO’d – and ability to avoid takedowns, there’s every chance he’d actually be able to out-do Diaz on the feet and win this fight.
With that being in the UFC’s best interests, then it’d make sense for the promotion to book this clash for sure.
