Does Kai Kara-France stand a chance against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 317? Breaking down the flyweight title fight

Kai Kara-France will receive his long-awaited flyweight title shot at UFC 317. However, to enthrone himself as the new 125-pound king, he will have to defeat the great Alexandra Pantoja, who has ruled the division since first capturing the belt in mid-2023.

It won't be an easy task for the New Zealander. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, and hasn't been on a win streak since 2022. So, does he actually have the tools necessary to beat someone like Pantoja?

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Kai Kara-France's chances against Alexandre Pantoja: An analysis

The truth is that Kai Kara-France has already faced Alexandre Pantoja, albeit under exhibition rules, nearly a decade ago on 'The Ultimate Fighter 26.' Pantoja won in a comfortable unanimous decision. But both men have evolved since then, and Kara-France has become a fine striker, with underrated punching power.

He sits on the outside, making reads and dictating the pace with his jab and low kicks. Anyone who extends their lead leg into range is punished with an inside low kick or a stiff jab, before the New Zealander angles off the center-line with lateral footwork. His goal is simple: to frustrate his opponent into lunging.

Check out Kai Kara-France knocking out Steve Erceg:

Once his foe obliges, Kara-France cracks them with his patented lead hook-right cross combination. Unfortunately, he needs quite a bit of time to make reads, which causes him to be a low output fighter. Furthermore, he isn't much of a grappler, but is defensively competent.

He has a decent sprawl, always fishing for underhooks to control his opponent's posture when they try to shoot for takedowns. More importantly, he understands that defending takedowns, in this day and age of chain-wrestling, means nothing if he doesn't disengage, so he is quick to frame and pivot away.

By comparison, Pantoja is all gas, no breaks. On the feet, he is aggressive but sloppy, relying on his toughness, grit, and cardio to push a relentless pace. He doesn't jab much. Instead, he blasts heavy outside low kicks on his foe's lead leg whenever they extend their stance to try and jab him on his way inside.

'The Cannibal' also barrels his way into range with looping shots. His goal, though, isn't to knock anyone out. Rather, Pantoja wants to draw his opponent into trying to counter him, only for him to duck under a committed punch with a takedown once their hips are squared.

Check out Alexandre Pantoja submitting Kai Asakura:

Once he's on the ground, he's a smothering scrambler and lethal submission specialist, which is worrying for Kara-France, who struggles greatly to get back on his feet or initiate counter-grappling sequences. Additionally, Pantoja won't allow Kara-France the time and space to make reads for counterpunches.

So, can Kara-France win at UFC 317? Yes, but it's unlikely.