'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,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'%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
This Saturday sees the UFC’s first pay-per-view event of 2019, as UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum goes down live from Melbourne, Australia. The card is top-heavy even for modern UFC standards – the double main event of Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum for the UFC Middleweight title and Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva sound epic, but the rest of the show is largely devoid of top-level contenders.
The likely reason for this is the fact that tickets sold out so quickly based on those top two fights that the promotion simply didn’t need to stack the rest of the card, but still, it’s a trend which hopefully won’t continue. Realistically, the two ESPN+ Fight Nights we’ve had thus far in 2019 were stronger cards on paper.
Still, there’s obviously a couple of interesting fights going on here. Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum.
#1 Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
It’s hard to believe given he’s held the title since late 2017, but this will actually mark Robert Whittaker’s first official UFC Middleweight title defense. Of course, he’s fought since then, defeating Yoel Romero, but as the Cuban missed weight for that fight, it became a non-title bout instead. And being a native Australian, the Melbourne crowd should be absolutely molten for the return of ‘The Reaper’.
Kelvin Gastelum earned his title shot by defeating Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza via narrow split decision at UFC 224 in May 2018; prior to this, he’d knocked out former champ Michael Bisping. Since moving back to Middleweight in December 2016, the TUF 17 winner is 4-1, with his wins over Bisping and Souza following victories over Tim Kennedy and Vitor Belfort. His lone loss came against Chris Weidman, but given Weidman has since been knocked out by Souza – who Gastelum beat – this title shot seems fair to me.
This is a massively intriguing fight because at 28 and 27 respectively, the two men are likely just approaching their primes in terms of their fighting careers. Both men have excellent skills in all areas; Gastelum has more of a grappling background than Whittaker but recently he’s preferred to use his striking to win fights, and both men have also shown a solid ability to take punishment, particularly Whittaker, who survived an insane amount of offense from Romero in both of their fights.
In terms of how they match up, I’m giving a slight advantage to Whittaker. Both men prefer to use a boxing-type game on their feet, but Whittaker has also been known to use some vicious leg and calf kicks, and it was his use of these that largely allowed him to break Romero down in their second fight. And while Gastelum has knocked opponents out in the past – Bisping and Belfort for instance – his punching power is of a natural clubbing style, while Whittaker is probably the cleaner puncher.
Gastelum has a tremendous wrestling background and he might be quite underrated in that department actually – he shrugged off the takedowns of an NCAA Division I champion in Johny Hendricks, and also managed to prevent the massive Tim Kennedy from getting him down – but I’m questioning whether he can get Whittaker off his feet given Romero – probably the best wrestler in the division – failed in that aspect.
The area that has me somewhat worried for the Aussie is the fact that he’s taken a lot of damage in his 7-year UFC career. He was knocked out pretty cleanly by Stephen Thompson in early 2014 in a Welterweight bout, and while he’s obviously fared far better at 185lbs, the punishment he endured in his two fights with Yoel Romero was potentially career-altering. And he’s hardly been injury-free either, as he spent almost a year on the shelf between those two Romero fights as well.
With that said, he doesn’t look anywhere near shot or shopworn to me just yet, and so I’m looking purely at how the skillsets of the two men stack up. And while Gastelum hits hard and is a fleet-footed striker at 185lbs, Whittaker is equally quick and is likely a more technical kickboxer. And given the Romero fights suggested it’s almost impossible to take him down and keep him there, I just don’t see Gastelum outwrestling him either.
Gastelum might do well early here, particularly if Whittaker comes in nervously due to the huge crowd that are going to be heavily behind him, but in the end, I can see Whittaker slowly picking him apart while avoiding his takedowns. Based on his own durability I’m not sure that ‘The Reaper’ can pick up a finish, but I’m taking him to win this one by unanimous decision.
The Pick: Whittaker via unanimous decision
#2 Israel Adesanya vs. Anderson Silva
It’s pretty clear to see why the UFC made this fight; essentially, it’s a fight between an ageing veteran who’s miles past his prime, but who was once the greatest striker in the history of the division in Anderson Silva, against the usurper, the new flashy striker looking to pick up the Brazilian’s old mantle in Israel Adesanya.
It’s also no secret who the UFC likely wants to win this fight – Adesanya has been heavily pushed by the promotion since his debut in February 2018, and he’ll probably be granted an immediate title shot with a win here. Silva has also been promised a title shot should he win, but like Royce Gracie against Matt Hughes and BJ Penn against Yair Rodriguez, it definitely feels like the UFC is hoping ‘The Spider’ will be a sacrificial victim.
Can the veteran find any way to pull this off? It seems unlikely to me. It’s often said that in fighting, the last thing to go is a fighter’s striking power, and we’ve seen evidence of that time and time again at Heavyweight, where the likes of Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt remain dangerous despite being older and more shopworn fighters. But despite his insane striking skills, Silva was never a fighter who got by due to his insane power.
Instead, ‘The Spider’ was a technical marvel, able to catch his opponents with strikes they just couldn’t see coming. Silva’s success was built on his precision; his unrivalled speed, timing and reflexes, as well as an iron chin. But in 2019, at the age of 43, those gifts have most likely left Silva for good.
He certainly hasn’t looked like the same fighter he once was since returning from a suspension for a positive PED test in 2015. The last time Silva looked like his past self was probably against Nick Diaz in the fight in which he tested positive. Since then, he was beaten by Michael Bisping and Daniel Cormier, and then edged past Derek Brunson in a controversial fight before being suspended for another positive test.
In the fights with Bisping and Brunson in particular, worrying trends seemed to emerge – Silva looked more hittable than he ever did in his prime, even being knocked down by Bisping, and appeared to be relying more and more on his taunting, “clowning” style to set up his strikes rather than being able to use his reflexes and timing. And of course, even the Brunson fight is now two years old.
That doesn’t bode well at all for him here. Thus far in his UFC career, Adesanya has been perfect; sure, he was taken down a couple of times by Marvin Vettori in what was the toughest fight of his UFC career thus far, but against better wrestlers in Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson he didn’t struggle at all, simply piecing both men up with his striking before they even got close to taking him to the ground.
And like Silva in his prime, Adesanya’s striking style is almost impossible to read, based on unorthodox movement, timing and strikes that seemingly come from nowhere. Like Silva, Adesanya is also quite happy to use all eight limbs – throwing elbows and knees as easily as he does punches and kicks – and is adept at abusing his opponent from the clinch, too.
Watching ‘The Last Stylebender’ against Brunson last November was literally like a flashback to Silva in his prime, with the massacre resembling the Brazilian’s classic victories over Chris Leben and Forrest Griffin. But that Silva is long gone and Adesanya is as pinpoint-accurate and dangerous as ‘The Spider’ was back then.
There’s no guarantee that this is going to be easy for Adesanya – he could come in overconfident and get caught by a big shot from Silva, who likely still has the ability to put a hurt opponent away, and if the fight goes to the ground then ‘The Spider’ is definitely the superior grappler, with a genuine black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and numerous submission wins to his name, but it’s hard to see this fight going in that direction.
Instead, I suspect we’ll get a striking battle that looks tentative to begin with while Adesanya works out Silva’s timing. And from there he’ll catch the legend with something nasty and put him away – becoming the first man to do so since Chris Weidman knocked Silva out and ended his legendary title reign back in 2013.
The Pick: Adesanya via first round KO
#3 Rani Yahya vs. Ricky Simon
There’s a fair argument to be made that grappling whiz Rani Yahya has had one of the strangest UFC careers of all time. Saturday’s fight will be, incredibly, his 16th Octagon appearance, and his career under the Zuffa banner actually stretches all the way back to his WEC debut in June 2007. Despite this long tenure though, this upcoming bout with Ricky Simon will be just his second appearance on a UFC main card – making him one of the least televised UFC fighters ever.
His record of 11-3 is also pretty impressive – that is until you check out the strength of his opposition. The likes of Matthew Lopez and Luke Sanders are solid enough, but they’re not ranked 135lbers. Still, one loss since 2013 is nothing to be sneezed at, and since 2016 he’s averaged a decent 2 fights per year. He’s also currently on a 3-fight winning streak.
In terms of his style, Yahya is almost a pure grappler – another rarity in modern-day MMA. He’s never truly rounded out his game – and at age 34 he’s unlikely to at this stage – as his striking remains rudimentary and essentially stiff, but his wrestling and takedowns have improved over the years, particularly since his 2014 drop to Bantamweight. And on the ground, he’s one of the most dangerous fighters in the division; an Abu Dhabi gold medallist who has submitted foes with various types of submission.
Yahya’s problem, traditionally – and this appears to go hand-in-hand with his striking issues – stems largely from the fact that he’s just not a great natural athlete. In a sense, he’s like Royce Gracie in that he’s the perfect example of how tremendous Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu can take a fighter pretty far without much explosive athleticism. And this issue might get him into trouble on Saturday as his opponent Simon is definitely a great athlete.
The former Titan FC Bantamweight champ debuted in the UFC last April with a fun – and pretty bizarre – win over Merab Dvalishvili that saw the referee decide Simon had choked his opponent out with a third-round guillotine despite Dvalishvili apparently being fine when the buzzer sounded. Prior to the turnaround though, Simon had been losing the fight largely due to the takedowns of Dvalishvili.
Simon followed that win up with a unanimous decision over Montel Jackson at UFC 227, but interestingly enough he switched up his gameplan for that fight, relying almost entirely on his wrestling and grappling to win a decision. He’s quite clearly a well-rounded fighter who is happy to grapple and strike – although against a fighter like Yahya, he’d probably be more inclined to attempt to stay on his feet.
So can he do that? In all honesty, I’m not too sure. While he’s clearly a better athlete than Yahya, he was taken down worryingly easily by Dvalishvili in their fight and while the Georgian wrestler wasn’t able to secure a finish, Yahya is light years beyond him in terms of submission skills. If the Brazilian can get Simon to the ground as easily as that, then the fight is likely over.
I’m leaning towards Yahya here; Simon might be pretty quick and explosive but I’m not sure he’s necessarily any better than recent Yahya victims like Luke Sanders and Russell Doane, and if the Washington native is taken down it’s hard to see a way in which he avoids a submission. I’m taking Yahya to get a tap out win to mark his 16th Octagon appearance.
The Pick: Yahya via first round submission
#4 Montana De La Rosa vs. Nadia Kassem
I’ll be honest and say I have no clue how this Women’s Flyweight tilt has found its way onto a UFC pay-per-view main card in 2019, but c’est la vie. The likely reasoning? Nadia Kassem is an Australian fighter who should be popular with this crowd, and both women have a marketable look that could mean they catch on with the fans with a win.
It’s been well over a year since we last saw Kassem fight, as she’s been on the shelf since her November 2017 win over Alex Chambers due to injuries. That fight took place at 115lbs, but Kassem missed weight, hence the move to 125lbs here. It was largely a grappling-based affair, and after some early issues, Kassem got the better of her more experienced opponent, coming close with a handful of submissions to cement a decision win.
At 23 years old – assuming her injuries haven’t prevented her from training – it’s likely that Kassem will have improved dramatically since we last saw her; footage on her is sparse but it’s interesting to note that despite outgrappling Chambers, she won all of her previous 4 fights via strikes. As a prospect then, she appears to be pretty decent.
De La Rosa meanwhile competed on the 26th season of TUF in the tournament to crown the inaugural Flyweight champion, and won her first fight before losing to eventual champion Nicco Montano in the quarter-finals. Since then she’s won two straight fights, both by submission – including a rear naked choke of the tough Rachael Ostovich last July.
This is a tough one to pick for me; both women are the same age although De La Rosa has far more experience, and both appear to have pretty excellent grappling chops. In a newer division like this, it’s always hard to make a concrete guess as to who will win, but I’m leaning slightly towards Kassem as I feel like she could surprise De La Rosa with her striking and have enough to fend her off on the ground.
The Pick: Kassem via unanimous decision
#5 Sam Alvey vs. Jimmy Crute
Initially, this fight would’ve seen Aussie prospect Crute taking on a fellow prospect in Ryan Spann in what would probably have been a lower risk, lower reward match. Spann’s withdrawal has now risen the stakes substantially higher, though. Crute is now faced with arguably a more dangerous opponent in Alvey, but also an opponent with a far bigger reputation. Win here, and a lot of people will be talking about ‘The Brute’ as a genuine talent to watch.
Crute’s December debut was fascinating in itself. Billed as a heavy-handed striker-come-brawler after an exciting win on Dana White’s Contender Series, people expected the Aussie to look to knock Paul Craig out, and yet he went right into the Scotsman’s wheelhouse, engaging in a fun grappling war with him that ended with Crute securing a kimura for the submission. It was a surprising show of skill from a fighter who’s still very young and inexperienced at 22 years old and 9-0.
Alvey, on the other hand, is highly experienced, as his career dates back to 2008 and he’s put together 16 UFC fights since his promotional debut in 2014. And the book is almost entirely written on his style of fighting and of winning; ‘Smilin Sam’ looks to lull his opponent into a false sense of security with an incredibly slow pace, and then looks to use his left hand to set up a brutally heavy right hook from southpaw that he’s used to knock out the likes of Cezar Ferreira and Dan Kelly.
Unfortunately, the book on how to beat Alvey is not only written, but it’s been published on numerous occasions. If his opponent can simply avoid the big counterpunch, then Alvey is probably going to lose. He’s been beaten to the said punch by the likes of Derek Brunson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, both of whom knocked him out, while Elias Theodorou and Ramazan Emeev simply pushed a harder pace and used the clinch to outwork him for a decision.
Assuming Crute doesn’t get too silly and engage Alvey in a wild brawl, then I think this should be his fight to lose, despite his lack of experience. He appears to be a far better athlete than Alvey and worse for ‘Smilin Sam’, he’s also a big 205lber, not a blown-up 185lber. If he can bring the grappling skill he showed against Craig into play, then this could be a pretty easy night for him, as Alvey is almost purely a striker.
Even if he can’t get Alvey down, I don’t see any reason – assuming his fight IQ isn’t frighteningly low – why he should be lulled into Alvey’s usual gameplan. And Alvey’s chin is looking more compromised than ever now. I think Crute can find Alvey’s chin and take him out impressively here.
The Pick: Crute via first round TKO
#6 The Prelims (ESPN card)
UFC 234’s prelims will be broadcast on the ESPN network and the headliner – a Lightweight tilt between Devonte Smith and Dong Hyun Ma should be exciting, to say the least. Smith, who debuted via Dana White’s Contender Series last year, viciously knocked out Julian Erosa in his Octagon debut proper and has a bunch of early TKO’s or KO’s on his 9-1 record. Dong meanwhile has established himself as a pretty wild brawler since his 2015 UFC debut – putting on a forgotten classic with Polo Reyes in 2016. I’m taking Smith here as he seems to have thunderous power in his strikes and while Dong can take a shot, he’s all too willing to engage in brawls and may be outgunned in this one.
At Featherweight, New Zealand’s Shane Young returns to face Austin Arnett, who picked up his first UFC win at the third attempt in November. Arnett is slightly more experienced than Young, but didn’t look good in his early UFC days, losing comfortably to Cory Sandhagen and Hakeem Dawodu. Young meanwhile was unfortunate enough to debut against Alexander Volkanovski, but actually acquitted himself well in that fight. I’m leaning towards Young here, as I think he’s got enough skill to outwork Arnett in all areas and likely take a decision.
Flyweight prospect Kai-Kara France is up next against newcomer Raulian Paiva – another odd signing if the UFC are indeed folding the men’s 125lbs division. Kara-France looked pretty fantastic in an exciting Octagon debut win over Elias Garcia, and has a ton of experience – even in losses he’s always looked competitive. Paiva has a lot of experience on the Brazilian circuit at 18-1, but I believe this will be his first time fighting out of Brazil and that could affect him. I’ll take Kara-France via decision here.
Finally, Teruto Ishihara takes on Kyung Ho Kang in a Bantamweight clash. Kang – who returned in late 2017 from his mandatory service in the Korean military – was last seen in a losing effort to Ricardo Ramos in what was an extremely close fight. Ishihara meanwhile is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and might only be around now due to his flashy fighting style and personality. Ishihara has shown glimpses of greatness but to me, he’s too inconsistent and so I like Kang to outwork him for a decision.
#7 The Prelims (Fight Pass card)
After a pair of shows with no Fight Pass bouts, the UFC’s streaming service resumes with this show with a trio of fights. Headlining this portion is exciting Lightweight striker Lando Vannata, who takes on the debuting Marcos Rosa. I admit that I’ve never properly seen Rosa fight – footage on him is sparse – but this looks like a bad match given he’s just 6-4 on the Brazilian circuit with no standout names on his record. Vannata meanwhile hasn’t lived up to his early hype, but the UFC clearly still sees something in him, and so I’ll take him to win this one via knockout.
At Lightweight, Jalin Turner – who was easily beaten by the dangerous Vicente Luque in his Octagon debut – takes on Aussie newcomer Callan Potter. It’s a tough one to pick as I don’t know a lot about either man, to be honest, but given Turner’s debut didn’t really impress I’m going with Potter to win in front of his home crowd, probably by TKO.
Finally, at Bantamweight, Jonathan Martinez faces China’s Wuliji Buren. China has begun to produce some solid fighters recently, but judging by his previous UFC outings, Buren probably isn’t one of them – one-sided losses to Marlon Vera and Rolando Dy make up his Octagon experience. Martinez meanwhile looked excellent in a losing effort against Andre Soukhamthath in October, and I think he’ll have more than enough to take out Buren here. Martinez via TKO is my pick.
