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The UFC returns to Australia this weekend for UFC 243, and as much as it pains me to say this, it’s a pretty weak card for what should be a marquee-level pay-per-view event given it’s taking place at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. For those who’ve forgotten, the last time the UFC visited that venue was for Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm back in 2015 – and the show drew a record attendance for the promotion of 56,214.
Sure, Robert Whittaker vs. Israel Adesanya is by far the biggest fight in the history of Australian MMA, as it pits the Aussie champ Whittaker against the New Zealand based interim champ Adesanya, but outside of that fight? Well, Dan Hooker vs. Al Iaquinta sounds cool I guess.
It must be added, also, that the show was initially bolstered by the return to Australia of former Women’s Bantamweight champ Holm, who was booked to rematch former title challenger Raquel Pennington. That fight has since been nixed due to an injury to Holm, however, and as of writing the UFC have only confirmed four main card fights.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya.
#1 Robert Whittaker vs. Israel Adesanya
It’s quite possible that Robert Whittaker might be the closest thing to a cursed champion that the UFC has ever had. For those unsure as to how we got to this point, here’s a short history lesson.
‘The Reaper’ first captured the Interim Middleweight title back in the summer of 2017 by outpointing fellow top contender Yoel Romero. A unification match with then - full champion Michael Bisping was mooted, but never happened as Bisping faced – and lost to – Georges St-Pierre instead.
‘GSP’ vacated the title rather than face off with Whittaker, and so the Aussie was upgraded to full champion status in December 2017 without actually unifying the belts. That was fine, and his first proper title defence was booked in February 2018 against Luke Rockhold. Unfortunately, Whittaker injured himself prior to the bout, and a match between Rockhold and Romero was put together for an interim title.
Romero won that one – but missed out on the title due to a botched weight cut. A rematch between Whittaker and the Cuban was then booked for UFC 225, and despite taking some insane punishment, Whittaker prevailed. After recovering from that, he was booked to face Kelvin Gastelum this February – only to be sidelined once again, this time with a serious hernia and collapsed bowel.
No replacement could be found as the injury happened so late in the day – and so we come to the second part of this story. That show – UFC 234 – was then main evented by Israel Adesanya’s fight with legendary former champ Anderson Silva, and when Adesanya won handily, the UFC booked him in an interim title fight with Gastelum at April’s UFC 236. And in one of the greatest title fights in UFC history, ‘The Last Stylebender’ came out on top, setting up easily the biggest fight in Australian MMA history.
Up to speed? Okay. So how does this fight play out? For me, it’s a tough fight to pick. Prior to the fight with Gastelum, Adesanya was largely unproven against elite-level competition. Sure, he’d picked apart mid-range fighters like Derek Brunson and Brad Tavares, but they’re too good – not great – Middleweights, while Silva is obviously years past his prime now. The Gastelum fight however showed us a lot more than anyone could’ve been expecting.
Firstly, it showed that Adesanya’s pinpoint striking style – somewhat similar to Silva’s, but with less kicks and slightly less flash – could definitely work against top-level opponents. It showed that he could keep a ridiculous pace over a 25 minute fight – something that’s clearly going to be needed against Whittaker. And interestingly, it showed us that he could defend takedowns pretty handily and also that he’s got an apparently iron jaw, as Gastelum hit him with some huge shots, even knocking him down, but couldn’t put him away.
Unfortunately, Gastelum was also able to expose a couple of flaws in his game, a couple of chinks in the armour of a man who up to that point had almost looked unstoppable. Essentially, Adesanya was fine when he was able to dictate the range of the fight, but when Gastelum really pushed forward and committed to his punches, he was able to land surprisingly clean shots and even drew ‘The Last Stylebender’ into brawling exchanges at points.
You can bet that Whittaker was watching that fight very closely, and would surely have noticed everything good and bad that Adesanya did. One of the more underrated fighters when it comes to game-planning, I’d almost certainly guess that part of Whittaker’s gameplan for this fight will be to push forward aggressively and attempt to catch Adesanya in the same way that Gastelum was able to do.
Could Whittaker replicate that gameplan? It’s tricky to say. On one hand, he’s faster than Gastelum, a superior striker and I’d argue he hits harder. He’s also up there with the likes of Chuck Liddell as the most ruthless finishers to ever step into the Octagon. But on the other hand, he doesn’t carry the same takedown threat that Gastelum did – something that may have been playing on Adesanya’s mind and causing him to struggle to read Gastelum’s timing.
More interestingly, while Whittaker has overcome some dangerous opponents since his move to 185lbs – the most notable being Romero and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza – it must be said that the last time he fought a pinpoint striker like Adesanya was back in 2014, and it led to his last loss, a TKO at the hands of Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson.
Now, Thompson and Adesanya don’t exactly have the same style – Wonderboy’s leaping in, leaping out karate technique is different to Adesanya’s more unorthodox striking game – but it’s also fair to say that Whittaker hasn’t fought as good a striker since; Uriah Hall and Romero are both excellent in their own way, but both men have flaws that Whittaker was able to capitalise on – flaws that Adesanya seemingly doesn’t have.
I feel like Whittaker can win this fight, but he’s practically going to have to fight perfectly to do it – he simply can’t let Adesanya snipe at him from range in exchanges, which means he’s going to have to be on the attack, but unless he shoots a lot of takedowns early in the fight – something he doesn’t tend to do – that style could leave him wide open to eat some nasty counters.
Throw in the fact that Whittaker has undoubtedly taken more punishment than Adesanya in their respective careers, and I think the more likely man to end up in trouble in this fight is ‘The Reaper’. I could be badly underestimating him but I’m leaning towards Adesanya catching him with some hard counters and taking him out midway through the fight.
The Pick: Adesanya via third round TKO
#2 Al Iaquinta vs. Dan Hooker
The winner of this Lightweight clash isn’t likely to receive a title shot any time soon; Iaquinta is coming off a loss to Donald Cerrone and while Dan Hooker knocked James Vick out in his last performance, the memories of the horrific beatdown he took at the hands of Edson Barboza last December remain very fresh in the memory.
Despite that, it should be a hell of a fight. Both Iaquinta and Hooker come to throw down every time they get into the Octagon, and it’s also quite a hard fight to pick in my opinion. Iaquinta is a tremendous MMA boxer and anyone whose only losses in the past 5 years are to Cerrone and Khabib Nurmagomedov is clearly a talented fighter.
Hooker on the other hand has taken more of a steady climb up the ladder; losses to the likes of Jason Knight and Yair Rodriguez seemed to suggest he had a relatively low ceiling at 145lbs, but the move to 155lbs in 2017 clearly suited him – the likelihood was that he was simply cutting too much weight from a lanky frame to make the lower weight – and he’s looked tremendous since.
Iaquinta is probably his toughest opponent to date – I’d put him above Barboza personally – but surprisingly enough I’m actually leaning towards ‘The Hangman’ here for a few different reasons. Firstly, it’s notable that of Iaquinta’s most recent opponents, the ones that gave him the most issues – outside of Khabib of course – were Cerrone, Kevin Lee and Jorge Masvidal.
All three men are very different fighters but one thing that links them together in this context is the fact that they had a notable reach advantage over Iaquinta and were able to make it count for great portions of their fights with him. And while ‘Ragin Al’ was able to eventually outbox Lee – and outwork a lacklustre Masvidal – he struggled massively with the length of Cerrone, who kept his jab in his face and was also able to use kicks to great effect.
I wouldn’t attempt to argue that Hooker is as good a striker as Cerrone, particularly when it comes to punches, but he’s definitely a man who knows how to use his length, and essentially like a poor man’s Cerrone – no offense intended as anyone getting close to ‘Cowboy’ is a fantastic fighter – he loves to throw leg kicks, uses that clever switch knee to catch opponents coming in too close, and he’s also dangerous from inside the clinch.
Add in the fact that judging from that Barboza fight, he’s also inhumanly tough – body shots eventually put him away and Iaquinta doesn’t tend to use them as viciously as Barboza does – and I’m not convinced that ‘Ragin Al’ has the punching power to put the Kiwi fighter away. Hooker probably doesn’t have the power to put the iron-chinned Iaquinta away either but as the old adage goes, styles make fights – and I just think that Hooker’s lanky style meshes well with Iaquinta’s more boxing-focused attack.
The Pick: Hooker via unanimous decision
#3 Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergey Spivak
It’s obvious for a number of reasons why this fight is on the main card – Tai Tuivasa is fighting at home, is one of the most charismatic fighters on the roster, and is likely to win by knockout – but it’s also a pointer to the lack of depth on show here. ‘Bam Bam’ was last seen in a pretty slow-paced loss to Blagoy Ivanov, while the less said about the UFC debut of Sergey Spivak, the better.
‘The Polar Bear’ made his UFC debut back in May against Walt Harris, and although he was bringing in a record of 9-0, his pre-UFC opposition was hardly anything to talk about and he lasted just 50 seconds with Harris before ‘The Big Ticket’ dispatched of him with a series of rapid, violent punches.
Harris is admittedly climbing the Heavyweight ladder pretty quickly right now – he looked excellent in his KO win over Alexei Oleinik earlier this year – but he’s also a somewhat limited fighter whose main strengths are the fact that he hits very hard and his raw athleticism, something that allows him to move a little quicker than your run-of-the-mill Heavyweight. Does that sound like anyone else, essentially a certain Australian who loves to drink from a shoe? Exactly.
For me this looks like a squash match – like Tuivasa’s fight with Cyril Asker in early 2018 – as ‘Bam Bam’ appears to have the advantage in all areas, from the power in his punches to the explosive nature that belies a flabby physique. It’d be nice if Tuivasa shows some improvements in this fight – namely a more varied striking game, better clinch work and improved cardio – but I’d also be very surprised if he needs anything outside of those heavy hands.
The Pick: Tuivasa via first round KO
#4 Luke Jumeau vs. Dhiego Lima
Again, like with the previous fight, should this Welterweight tilt be on the main card of a UFC pay-per-view in 2019? Likely not, but to steal Max Holloway’s favourite phrase, it is what it is. Luke Jumeau is a popular fighter from New Zealand which probably explains the placement, but in terms of UFC success, ‘The Juggernaut’ is still very unproven.
Lima is at least a semi-interesting fighter to watch. The younger brother of Bellator’s outstanding Douglas Lima, Dhiego’s biggest claim to fame is probably the fact that he made it into two separate finals of The Ultimate Fighter, only to come up short on both occasions. That might not be fair, actually – Lima is a hugely skilled fighter in all areas, but unfortunately for him, his weak chin has tended to let him down in the past.
Right now he’s on a two-fight win streak, but it must be said that the two opponents he defeated – Court McGee and Chad Laprise – weren’t able to test his chin. Laprise was knocked out quickly while McGee – not a fighter renowned for his punching power – wasn’t able to land cleanly on him. The fact that he was able to take out two hardened veterans says a lot for Lima’s skills, though.
This looks like a good fight for him in my opinion, too. Judging by his previous UFC fights, Jumeau is somewhat of a brawler who enjoys trading shots, but he isn’t all that technical with it, and he doesn’t look like the best athlete. Sure, he’s got a number of KO and TKO finishes on his ledger – 5 to be exact – but while Lima’s chin is definitely dodgy the opponents who did knock him out were all relatively technical strikers like Tim Means and Jason Jackson.
Jumeau has a chance here simply because I just don’t trust Lima’s chin in the slightest, but in terms of actual skills I feel like he’s overmatched from all I’ve seen, and to add to that he hasn’t actually fought since February 2018. I’ve got to go with the more proven, skilled fighter here and so I’m taking Lima.
The Pick: Lima via unanimous decision
#5 The Prelims: ESPN card
Headlining this weekend’s ESPN prelims is Jake Matthews, who can still be classed as a prospect at the age of 25 despite spending the last 5 years in the UFC. Matthews is a well-rounded fighter who can strike, wrestle and grapple well, and his only losses – outside of the Andrew Holbrook fight that saw him injure himself early – have been to fighters able to outright best him in one single area. He’s faced with Sweden’s Rostem Akman here and well, to say this sounds like a layup for Matthews is probably an understatement. Akman showed very little in his UFC debut this June and while Matthews has been out for a while (since December) he’s still the kind of fighter who can make huge leaps forward during periods away. I like Matthews by submission here.
Next up is a clash of Heavyweights, as newcomers Justin Tafa and Yorgan De Castro face off. Tafa – a native of Australia – is very inexperienced at 3-0 but looks like a heavy hitter while De Castro, the first UFC fighter from Cape Verde, impressed in his win on Dana White’s Contender Series. This one likely isn’t going the distance but I’m taking De Castro to upset the crowd and win by KO. He just seems like the more proven fighter right now and Tafa’s highlights show worrying sloppiness.
At Welterweight, Callan Potter faces Hawaii’s Maki Pitolo. Again, I’m going with the foreign fighter here; Aussie veteran Potter came into UFC 234 on late notice and ‘The Rock Star’ didn’t really impress in a loss to Jalin Turner, and while he has 17 wins, none of them really leap out as UFC-worthy. Pitolo meanwhile looked solid on Dana White’s Contender Series and has experience in Bellator as well as against veterans like Andrews Nakahara. I’ll take the Hawaiian by TKO here.
Finally Megan Anderson returns at Featherweight to face newcomer Zarah Fairn Dos Santos. Despite being 1-2 in the UFC with that lone win being a controversial one, in such a thin division the marketable Anderson is still perhaps only a couple of wins away from a title shot. Better for her, Dos Santos looks like more of a striker than a grappler, and of course, Anderson has excellent kickboxing while grappling has proven to be her Achilles heel. This should be Anderson’s chance for a big win and I’ll take her to pull it off by TKO.
#6 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
UFC Fight Pass subscribers get three fights this weekend, none of which sound that inspiring to be frank. Lightweights Jamie Mullarkey and Brad Riddell get the headlining spot in a fight full of local flavour – Mullarkey is an Aussie, Riddell hails from New Zealand. Footage seems sparse on both but I’ll take the inexperienced Riddell, simply because Mullarkey hasn’t actually won a fight since 2015.
At Flyweight Nadia Kassem faces off with Ji Yeon Kim. The inexperienced Kassem was whitewashed last time out by Montana De La Rosa, and while this looks like a more favourable fight, it still appears to be tricky – Kim is more experienced at the UFC level, has a win over the talented Justine Kish, and while she has struggled to make 125lbs before, I think she’s the better fighter. Kim by decision is my pick.
Finally at Bantamweight, Khalid Taha takes on the debuting Bruno Silva. Silva – AKA ‘Bulldog’ fought on the fourth season of TUF: Brazil back in 2015 so it’s been a long road to the UFC for him, but he’s a talented fighter, particularly on the ground. Taha looked tremendous in his last fight – a quick KO of Boston Salmon – and this actually might be the sleeper fight on the card in terms of quality. I’ll take Taha by TKO but to see Silva submit him wouldn’t be a surprise.
