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The UFC heads to Houston, Texas this weekend for 2020’s second big pay-per-view event. We’ve got two huge title fights on tap, as Jon Jones defends his UFC Light-Heavyweight title against Dominick Reyes in the main event, while Valentina Shevchenko faces Katlyn Chookagian for her UFC Flyweight title in the co-headliner.
The rest of the card isn’t so strong, but there are plenty of fights that should pique the interest of UFC fans here, most notably a couple of eye-opening Heavyweight clashes on the main card.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes.
#1 Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes
2019 was an interesting year for Jon Jones. After the controversy that surrounded his re-capture of the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in late 2018 despite yet another positive drug test, Jones settled back into a classical champion’s role last year, taking on a pair of top contenders who earned their shots the hard way.
Jones turned back the challenge of Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, but never looked to be at his very best in either fight, and came as close as he’s ever come to being dethroned in the latter fight, only edging ‘Marreta’ by split decision.
Now he’s faced with Dominick Reyes, and for the first time, it feels like things have come full circle for Jones. Ever since he took the 205lbs crown from Mauricio Rua in 2011, it’s felt like Jones has been the young lion turning back the challenge of older veterans; now though, he’s become the veteran himself, and Reyes is the first fighter from the next generation to step up to challenge him.
‘The Devastator’ has been in the UFC since 2017, and he’s gone 6-0 in that time, defeating the likes of Ovince St. Preux, Jared Cannonier and Volkan Oezdemir along the way. His last win came over former UFC Middleweight champ Chris Weidman in October, a brutal knockout after just under two minutes.
Essentially, Reyes has all the tools to be the man to finally defeat Jones; he’s slightly taller, isn’t at a huge reach disadvantage, and carries power in all of his strikes – particularly his kicks. However, there are a ton of question marks around him, too.
Reyes has stepped up every time he’s been given a tougher opponent and pulled out the win; he easily defeated Cannonier, Weidman and St. Preux, for instance, but struggled at times to overcome Oezdemir, particularly in the clinch, which is one of Jones’ big strengths.
We also don’t know a lot at all about his wrestling, ground game and cardio along the stretch, which is worrying given Jones is arguably the greatest wrestler in the history of the Light-Heavyweight division.
With all that said, is ‘Bones’ in his prime anymore? Or were those workmanlike wins over Smith and Santos a pointer of what’s to come for Jones, in a sense that his best days are behind him? Against Santos, for instance – a noted striker with a porous ground game – the champion didn’t even attempt a takedown, and if he fights in the same way against Reyes, he could well be in trouble.
I’m going for Jones in this fight purely because there are just too many question marks over Reyes’ overall game, but I’ve also got a strong feeling that this could be “the one” where ‘Bones’ finally loses, and loses well. Therefore I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Reyes knock the longtime champ out – but I’m going to play it safe and take Jones by decision.
The Pick: Jones via unanimous decision
#2 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Katlyn Chookagian
When Valentina Shevchenko won the UFC Flyweight title by beating former strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in December 2017, it seemed clear that she’d probably go onto a dominant title reign. That’s definitely been the case – ‘The Bullet’ has since defended against Jessica Eye and Liz Carmouche, and in all honesty, the only question I have here is whether she picks challenger Chookagian apart over five rounds or actually takes her out violently.
I hate to count out any fighter, but there’s literally nothing to suggest Chookagian could be the one to upset Shevchenko right now. ‘Blonde Fighter’ is 4-1 at 125lbs right now, but she’s never finished a foe inside the UFC – and has never come close, really – and suffered a decision loss to Eye back in 2018, too.
Primarily a striker, Chookagian looks to use her long reach and length to pick her opponents apart, but despite the fact that she stands 4” taller than Shevchenko and does have a 2.5” reach advantage, it’s just hard to see her out-kickboxing an opponent who comfortably picked apart a striker as good as Holly Holm when they faced off.
Shevchenko essentially has no weaknesses – unless you’re willing to count the fact that, like Stephen Thompson, for instance, she can be lulled into a low-output fight that can be confusing for judges to call. Outside of that though, she’s technically brilliant on her feet, has a powerful grappling game, and her cardio is second-to-none.
Whether she can finish Chookagian – who almost certainly won’t open up too aggressively when faced with such a deadly opponent – is another question, but it’d be nice if she could, as her win over Carmouche was one of the worst title fights in UFC history.
I’m leaning towards the answer being no; ‘The Bullet’ is a great fighter, but she’s also a safety-first type who will be more than happy to do just enough to edge out a clear-cut decision win. So I’m going for just that – Shevchenko will simply pick Chookagian apart for five rounds in what could be a slower-paced fight.
The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
#3 Juan Adams vs. Justin Tafa
This Heavyweight clash will hopefully go quickly; if it doesn’t, we could be in for a classic slop-fest as these two are big dudes who most likely lack cardio, and if the fight heads into the second round, who knows what horrors could await.
Tafa debuted in the UFC back in October after just 3 KO victories on the Australian circuit, but then lost in his Octagon appearance by KO after just 2:10. It’s nearly impossible to tell exactly what he brings to the game outside of some heavy hands, to be quite frank.
Adams meanwhile – better known as ‘The Kraken’ – debuted and looked like an excellent prospect to watch after he defeated Chris De La Rocha, but a loss to Arjan Bhullar tempered his hopes of making the elite level and he was then stopped by Greg Hardy in an odd fight that was arguably a referee botch.
Standing at 6’5”, Adams cuts weight to make the 265lbs Heavyweight limit, but he’s more than just a giant striker; he was an accomplished wrestler in his youth and is clearly an excellent athlete, even if he failed to show this in his last two losses.
This is a tough fight to pick because both men have shown they can be hurt by a fellow heavy hitter, but I’m taking Adams. ‘The Kraken’ is the safer bet, having more UFC and more MMA experience, and the fact that he’s got the wrestling to likely take Tafa down should prove to be the difference. I like Adams by ground-and-pound here.
The Pick: Adams via first round TKO
#4 Mirsad Bektic vs. Dan Ige
This Featherweight clash has me intrigued simply because – despite his recent struggles – I still believe Bektic can climb the ladder into title contention at 145lbs. A phenomenal athlete, the Bosnian native has some of the best wrestling skills in the division, he hits incredibly hard, and basically has all of the tools to become a UFC champion.
The problem he’s had has been with his reckless nature; he got too sloppy against Darren Elkins in what was one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history from ‘The Damage’, and against Josh Emmett he traded bombs with one of the division’s hardest hitters when he should probably have looked to have taken him down.
Outside of that, though, he defeated Ricardo Lamas in pretty definitive fashion and also dismantled Godofredo Pepey in 2018 too. Ige is a step down in competition for him; while the Hawaiian is on a 4-fight win streak, he’s also never faced an opponent even close to the level of Bektic.
A solidly rounded fighter, Ige hits hard, and has an excellent chin, but doesn’t really move that quickly in the cage. That should give him a ton of problems against Bektic, who has an incredibly quick shot and can also throw his hands with just as much speed.
The last time we saw Ige face a really excellent athlete was at UFC 220, in his UFC debut against Julio Arce. In that fight, Arce simply used his superior speed to pick Ige apart for three rounds, and while he’s clearly improved since then, I don’t see any reason why Bektic can’t repeat the feat.
As long as the Bosnian can tone down his aggression somewhat – and not fight in such a wild manner as to leave himself wide open – then I think this is his fight to lose. If he gets on top, his furious nature will almost certainly be enough to finish ‘Dynamite’.
The Pick: Bektic via first round TKO
#5 Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi
Okay, so this may well be the most baffling fight in recent memory inside the UFC; Latifi is making the move to Heavyweight for the first time in his UFC tenure despite standing at just 5’10”, and he’s been matched with one of the biggest men in the whole division in the form of Lewis, who has to cut weight to make the 265lbs limit and stands at least 5” taller.
With that said, this isn’t doom and gloom for Latifi, not by a long shot. Lewis’s major weakness is his ground game; his takedown defense remains hugely porous despite his experience and while he has defeated other ground specialists before, most notably Marcin Tybura and Shamil Abdurakhimov, his tendency to simply look to lift opponents off him using brute strength may not work against someone with the wrestling technique of ‘The Sledgehammer’.
The problem for Latifi, however, is that he doesn’t traditionally look to destroy opponents with ground-and-pound despite hitting hard. His KO or TKO wins have come from a standing position, and it’s hard to see him grabbing onto the neck of someone like Lewis for one of his trademark power guillotine chokes.
Add in the fact that for however strong the Swede is, ‘The Black Beast’ is likely more powerful still simply due to his ridiculous size, and it becomes a little more worrying for Latifi. Can he take Lewis down? Quite possibly. Can he hold him there? That’s less likely, and if he can’t and he gets hit by one of Lewis’s clubbing punches, then he’s in deep trouble.
Lewis is an unpredictable enough fighter that ‘The Sledgehammer’ can’t be counted out here, and in the very least I suspect Latifi will win the first round with his takedowns. But I can see Lewis catching him cleanly at least once, and when he does, I don’t think the Swede can stand up to his enormous power.
The Pick: Lewis via third round KO
#6 The Prelims: ESPN card
Headlining Saturday’s prelim card is a Middleweight clash between Trevin Giles and Antonio Arroyo. Giles got off to a great start in his UFC career, knocking out two opponents, and he also has an impressive win over current Light-Heavyweight contender Ryan Spann. But losses – both by guillotine – to Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert – have tempered expectations. Another grappler, Arroyo has plenty of submissions to his name, but he lost to Andre Muniz in his own UFC debut, and for me, his lack of athleticism could cost him here. I like Giles by TKO.
At Welterweight, veteran Alex Morono faces Kalinn Williams. A debutant, Williams is rare as he hasn’t fought on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s on a 6-fight win streak, and looks like an explosive athlete – but he doesn’t have the experience of Morono, who has wins over the likes of Kenan Song and Max Griffin. I like Morono to grind out a decision here.
In a big Flyweight fight, Lauren Murphy faces Andrea Lee, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the winner handed a title shot next. Lee was edged out by Joanne Calderwood in her last fight, but she’s still an excellent – and marketable – fighter in all areas. Murphy is a hard-nosed veteran but she’s also a lesser athlete compared to Lee, which makes this a tricky one to pick. I’m going with Lee via a close decision but could be wrong.
#7 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
UFC Fight Pass will see three fights this weekend; all three at Bantamweight. Firstly, Miles Johns faces Mario Bautista in what should be an excellent, hard-hitting clash. I like Johns’ more aggressive, athletic style to pull him through but it’ll be close. Call it a split decision for Johns.
Next, Journey Newson faces Domingo Pilarte. Again, it’s a close one to call. Both men have similar records, and both are coming off losses to more experienced fighters. It’s a tough one to pick to be honest but I like Pilarte to edge out a decision.
Finally, Andre Ewell faces Jonathan Martinez in what should be another fun fight. Martinez is tremendously athletic, and has a lot of potential due to his sheer wild aggression, but Ewell is a great wrestler, hits hard and is extremely durable. He’s also got far more experience, having beaten former UFC champ Renan Barao. I like Ewell to win this one in the stretch – probably with a submission.
