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After making a return to Las Vegas this past weekend, the UFC is back on pay-per-view in their spiritual home this weekend, as UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer goes down from the promotion’s APEX facility.
The card is a pretty strong one considering the circumstances and the lack of international fighters, with one of the all-time greats in the main event and a number of fights capable of affecting title pictures up and down the card.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer.
#1 UFC Women’s Featherweight Title: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer
There have been a number of double champions in UFC history now. Since Conor McGregor first achieved the feat in 2016, we’ve also seen Daniel Cormier, Henry Cejudo and Amanda Nunes join him on that list.
Nunes captured the Bantamweight title back in July 2016 and then added the Featherweight title to her crown when she knocked out Cris Cyborg in December 2018. But where Cejudo and McGregor seemingly had no interest in defending both titles, ‘The Lioness’ is following in the steps of Cormier.
After defending her Bantamweight title twice in 2019, this will be her first Featherweight title defense. Her opponent is Canada’s Felicia Spencer, a tough fighter who stands at 2-1 in the UFC and 8-1 overall. So can Nunes continue to make history? Or is an upset on the cards?
Brazil’s Nunes is undoubtedly one of the greatest female fighters in MMA history. In fact, there’s a very strong argument that she stands outright as the greatest, full stop. Holding an overall record of 19-4, she’s lost just once since joining the UFC in 2013 – in an all-time classic war against Cat Zingano.
Outside of that, she’s won 11 fights in the Octagon and is currently on a 10-fight win streak. Incredibly, 8 of those 11 wins have come against current or former UFC titleholders. It’s a feat that even the likes of Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre can’t boast of.
In terms of her style, ‘The Lioness’ has very few weaknesses. She’s a terrifying and powerful striker, but where she was once a berserker, she’s now got the ability to pick her shots, something that’s brought her some incredible knockouts as of late – including over Cyborg, Holly Holm and Ronda Rousey.
And while the fight was a dull one, she was even able to outpoint the great Valentina Shevchenko on the feet in their second fight at UFC 215.
The Brazilian is also a more than capable grappler, showing tremendous abilities on the ground in her wins over Miesha Tate, Sara McMann and most recently, Germaine de Randamie. Her cardio was once a knock – she gassed in her loss to Zingano and also in her first fight with Shevchenko – but the fact that she comfortably went 5 rounds with de Randamie just 6 months ago suggests she’s now closed that hole too.
So how can Spencer win this fight? The truth is that ‘The Phenom’ is probably going to struggle. The UFC announcers have pushed the Canadian as a “natural 145lber” but she isn’t huge and rangy like Megan Anderson, for instance; at 5’6” she’s shorter than many Bantamweights – Nunes included – and could clearly make 135lbs with a stricter diet.
A grappler by trade, Spencer’s definitely got finishing skills on the ground. She choked out Anderson in her UFC debut last summer and has 6 finishes to her name coming on the mat. But unfortunately, both of her UFC opponents clearly had deficiencies on the ground.
Anderson is a developing grappler and is seemingly improving, but the ground game is still her biggest weakness, while Spencer’s other victim – Zarah Fairn – was actually submitted by Anderson in the fight prior to her clash with Spencer.
The most telling fight, in truth, would be Spencer’s clash with Cyborg last summer. The fight saw her cut the Brazilian open in the clinch, but outside of that, she was unable to take the former champion down and found herself battered from pillar to post for 15 minutes.
The Canadian did display a tremendous chin, but outside of that, it was hard to take any positives from such a one-sided beating. So given that Nunes is undoubtedly a superior grappler to Cyborg and is even less likely to be taken down, then what can Spencer do?
In all honesty, the best I can see her doing is surviving the distance. With that said, a beating like the one she took from Cyborg is often career-altering, and even though she’s beaten an overmatched foe since, I could easily see Nunes simply overwhelming her with strikes early on. She’s as powerful as Cyborg on the feet but is also far more accurate.
Overall, this looks like a one-sided fight. I’m taking ‘The Lioness’ via second round TKO.
The Pick: Nunes via second round TKO
#2 Bantamweight: Raphael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt
Just a couple of years ago, this could easily have been a UFC Bantamweight title fight. Cody Garbrandt famously dethroned Dominick Cruz for the title in December 2016 and unbeaten at the time at 11-0, it looked like he’d spend a long time on the throne.
Assuncao meanwhile was in the midst of a lengthy winning streak, and a tight loss to TJ Dillashaw aside, was 11-1 since moving to 135lbs in 2011. Why was the Brazilian never given a crack at the gold? Firstly, the loss to Dillashaw came bang in the middle of his run, arresting his momentum, and his lack of personality meant that the UFC were always willing to overlook him.
However, since then, both men have run into difficulties. Assuncao was definitively beaten by Marlon Moraes last February, knocked down and choked out inside the first round, and in his rebound fight, he was outpointed by the rising Cory Sandhagen.
Garbrandt however has seen his stock fall even further. A series of injuries meant he spent the majority of his time as Bantamweight champ on the shelf, and in his return fight, he was knocked out by bitter rival Dillashaw in the second round – but only after having his former teammate in serious trouble in the first.
A rematch was booked, but this time it went even worse for Garbrandt, who was overwhelmed after 4 minutes. Most recently, ‘No Love’ was knocked out by Pedro Munhoz, being drawn into a brawl in a fight that he was actually winning and coming up second-best.
That, in a nutshell, has been Garbrandt’s problem. When he manages to stay calm, ‘No Love’ can be outright cerebral. He cut Cruz up in their fight for instance, using sharp boxing and excellent footwork, and also stayed calm to piece up the wilder Thomas Almeida back in 2016.
His most recent losses on the other hand have been largely caused by an inability to keep his emotions in check. The issue with his former teammate Dillashaw meant that he came in far too fired up and willing to brawl, and his downfall against Munhoz was largely triggered by his anger following an accidental clash of heads.
Essentially, if he can keep his head calm then ‘No Love’ is a very dangerous fighter. His boxing is as sharp as anyone’s in the division, his footwork is genuinely excellent when he’s on form, and his solid wrestling means that while he isn’t a threat on the ground, he’s not likely to be taken down and held down either.
Assuncao on the other hand is a meat-and-potatoes fighter who’s solid in all areas, but isn’t outstanding in any either. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he offers a submission threat, but in reality he hasn’t actually tapped an opponent since 2013.
He’s been more of a successful positional grappler, but against a wrestler as good as ‘No Love’ – particularly one who doesn’t necessarily want to grapple – then it’s hard to see him having too much success.
On the feet meanwhile, he’s shown KO power on a couple of occasions – and against a fighter as chinny as Cody Garbrandt, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him land something heavy – but again, he’s mainly been a solid, no-frills striker.
To me then, this comes down to whether Garbrandt can keep his head in the game without being drawn into a wild shootout, which – due to Cody’s compromised chin – would be massively dangerous for him. Given Assuncao isn’t exactly an offensive personality and the head-clash in the Munhoz fight was somewhat of a freak accident, I’m thinking there’s every possibility that ‘No Love’ can stay calm.
And if he stays calm? Then I see no reason why he can’t use his boxing to pick Assuncao apart over the course of three rounds. He’ll be the faster man, the harder hitter, and with Assuncao getting no younger – he’s 38 next month – for me this is a winnable fight for the former champ.
The Pick: Cody Garbrandt via unanimous decision
#3 Bantamweight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen
Many fans would probably argue that Sterling – who is currently on a 4-fight winning streak and has beaten Cody Stamann, Jimmie Rivera and Pedro Munhoz – deserves to be one half of the upcoming fight for the Bantamweight title recently vacated by Henry Cejudo. However, with the UFC pursuing a match between Petr Yan and Jose Aldo for that title, ‘Funk Master’ is instead faced with a highly dangerous foe instead.
Sandhagen – a member of the famed Elevation Fight Team based in Colorado – is currently 5-0 in the UFC and most recently outpointed veteran Raphael Assuncao. Over his career in the Octagon, ‘The Sandman’ has shown skills in all areas, from some nasty-but-pinpoint striking to a relatively underrated ground game.
Will that be enough to overcome Sterling? It’s a tricky fight to call. ‘Funk Master’ came into the UFC with a lot of hype in 2014. A former standout collegiate wrestler, it was suggested that Sterling had the ability to become ‘the Jon Jones of Bantamweights’.
Initially, Sterling seemed happy to rely mainly on his incredible athleticism and an excellent ground game. He won his first 4 UFC fights this way, picking up one TKO and two submissions, but came off the rails somewhat between 2016 and 2017.
That period saw him lose to a pair of veterans in Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao. Both fights could well have gone the other way – Sterling gassed against Caraway and was beaten down the stretch, while the judges arguably got the decision in the Assuncao fight wrong.
However, it was safe to say that by that point, ‘Funk Master’ had fallen in love with his striking a little too much. He’d built a powerful arsenal on the feet based largely around his kicking game, but it was clear that his overall technique and nuance wasn’t quite there, and even in a win over Renan Barao, it seemed like his grappling was suffering for this change.
Thankfully, Sterling has now apparently turned things around again. Suddenly, his striking technique appears to be meshing with his grappling to create a fighter who’s dangerous in all areas, and against Munhoz and Rivera, he was able to use his striking to set up his takedowns and vice-versa. With his tremendous athleticism, he may well now be the most dangerous man in the division.
Can Sandhagen beat him, then? For me it’s debatable. ‘The Sandman’ might be the better pure striker, but despite him showing some solid defensive grappling chops against Assuncao and also against Iuri Alcantara in their 2018 fight, it’s hard to imagine him getting the better of Sterling on the ground.
In this fight he’s likely going to have two problems. Firstly, Sterling is likely the superior athlete, and across his UFC career, Sandhagen has yet to face an opponent who’s a better athlete than he is, with more explosive speed and ability to cover range quickly. And secondly, where he was able to overcome Assuncao and Alcantara on the ground, neither man is the wrestler that ‘Funk Master’ is.
Assuming Sterling keeps the same style he used to beat Munhoz and Rivera then – and doesn’t decide to simply trade off with Sandhagen – then I think this is his fight to lose. Sandhagen will undoubtedly give him some problems, but as long as ‘Funk Master’ can ensure he mixes up his striking and grappling, then I think he’ll win a decision. To go out on a limb, I also think he’ll be the UFC’s champion in this division by the end of 2021.
The Pick: Sterling via unanimous decision
#4 Welterweight: Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin
This Welterweight clash once again represents a chance for Martin to climb up onto the elite level at 170lbs. Nobody is going to claim Magny is a title contender any time soon – for reasons we’ll get into in a second – but the TUF veteran is incredibly dogged, has skills in all areas, and has enough Octagon experience to beat the majority of opponents he comes up against.
His biggest issue has been a simple one: a classic jack-of-all-trades, Magny might be well-rounded, but he doesn’t stand out in any one area, and that’s meant that he’s been susceptible to true specialists. He’s got 4 losses in recent years; expert grapplers Demian Maia and Rafael Dos Anjos submitted him with ease, while concussive and explosive strikers Santiago Ponzinibbio and Lorenz Larkin picked him apart and eventually TKO’d him.
Outside of them though? Magny has comfortably beaten even opponents who were favoured against him – men like Carlos Condit, Johny Hendricks and most recently, Jingliang Li. So where does Martin fall on that scale?
At first glance, you’d have to give him a fair crack against Magny. Since he moved to 170lbs in 2018 he’s proven to be a highly dangerous and capable finisher in all positions. He knocked out Ryan LaFlare in devastating fashion, and choked out Jake Matthews with a beautiful anaconda choke, for instance.
Having said that though, the truth is that Martin has more in common with someone like Li or Condit than he does with Ponzinibbio – a striking expert – or the pure grappler Maia. He’s capable of finishing Magny if he has the chance, but the problem is going to be getting to the point where that opportunity opens up.
Magny is likely to be all over him from the off in this fight, just as he was against Li, and with a long reach advantage – 7” – he’s going to make it very tricky for Martin to get inside his range to land any big strikes. With an underrated wrestling game, it’s also going to be hard for Martin to drag him into any issues on the ground.
Can Martin win this fight? Yes; Magny isn’t invulnerable in any area and there’s always the chance that a finisher like Martin can find a chink in his armour, but overall the styles of the two men just favour Magny, who’s longer, tougher and is arguably the better wrestler, too. I like him to outwork Martin for a decision.
The Pick: Magny via unanimous decision
#5 Bantamweight: Eddie Wineland vs. Sean O’Malley
This is a piece of classic UFC matchmaking; a potential star on the rise, unbeaten in MMA and just 25 years old taking on a battle-tested veteran, but one who’s also likely at the very tail-end of his career. Sure, Wineland did win his last fight – knocking out Grigory Popov – but at 35 years old, he’s definitely slowed down over the past few years.
The former WEC Bantamweight champ – who held the title back in 2006 – has been one of the more reliable fighters in the division since debuting in the UFC back in 2011. Losses to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez got him off on the wrong foot, but his striking skills then netted him a title shot against then-champ Renan Barao in 2013.
Wineland came up short there, and has since gone 4-4 in the Octagon. He’s still a dangerous technical striker, but he’s slower than he once was, is far less durable, and has never been the greatest grappler at 135lbs.
O’Malley meanwhile exploded onto the scene in 2017 via Dana White’s Contender Series. Impressive wins over Terrion Ware, Andre Soukhamthath and Jose Quinonez have since followed, with ‘Sugar Sean’ looking better in each fight.
Issues with PEDs – he tested positive for the banned substance ostarine in 2018 – have plagued his UFC career thus far, but judging by what we’ve seen so far, he’s dangerous in all areas, has tremendous athleticism, and his ceiling looks to be very high indeed.
Unless O’Malley gets drawn into a pure striking match with Wineland, this should be his fight to lose. He’s bigger than the former champ and has a reach advantage of 3”, but it still wouldn’t be wise for him to get into a firefight with the veteran. Sure, there’s every chance he could knock Wineland out – but he’d also be playing into the veteran’s hands, too.
‘Sugar Sean’ would undoubtedly be better off using his striking to set up a takedown, and while he hasn’t got an extensive record of submission wins to his name, there’s no doubt he’s more than capable on the ground; he went to a draw in a pure grappling match with Gilbert Melendez late last year, for instance.
Assuming O’Malley’s fight IQ isn’t downright terrible then – and it hasn’t seemed that way based on his UFC career thus far – this should theoretically be a good fight for him. I suspect he’ll look to use his reach to hit Wineland from the outside before capitalising on his opportunities to get a takedown. Once he does that, he’ll either hunt for a choke – or perhaps even look to pound Wineland out.
The Pick: O’Malley via second round submission
#6 The Prelims: ESPN card
This weekend’s show will see four prelims shown on ESPN, and at the top of that portion is a Featherweight bout between Alex Caceres – better known as Bruce Leeroy – and Chase Hooper. An exciting fighter, Caceres has never quite lived up to his potential, but he’s still an ultra-athletic, dangerous fighter with abilities in all areas.
Hooper meanwhile is 9-0 and at 20, is one of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster. That didn’t matter in his debut, as he smashed Daniel Teymur in the first round of their fight with a series of elbows.
Caceres should be a tougher out for him, but the truth is that at 31 and with a decade of fights in the UFC behind him, ‘Bruce Leeroy’ is probably past his best. He’ll provide a tricky test for Hooper, but the ultra-talented ‘Teenage Dream’ should have enough to get past the veteran. I’ll take him to win by decision.
At Middleweight, the ultra-tough Ian Heinisch faces off with dangerous veteran Gerald Meerschaert. Not the best athlete, Meerschaert has still done well in the UFC, going 7-3. He tends to start slowly, but uses his veteran wiles to lull his opponents into a false sense of security before dragging them into his kind of fight – a dogged one usually involving a lot of grappling. Heinisch will be a tricky fight for him as ‘The Hurricane’ tends to push a ludicrous pace from the off and is a tremendous wrestler, too.
Meerschaert is wily enough to finish Heinisch off given the chance, but I’m not sure he’ll be given that chance; the likelihood is that ‘The Hurricane’ will bum-rush him and hurt him early to the point that he never really recovers. ‘GM3’ is tough enough to go the distance, but I think Heinisch takes this via decision.
After knocking out Hunter Azure just a couple of weeks ago, Brian Kelleher returns at his natural 135lbs to face tricky grappler Cody Stamann. Kelleher is a fantastic fighter to watch, all-action and willing to throw everything he’s got at his opponent – but this fight looks horrendous for him in my opinion. A hard-nosed wrestler with finishing ability, Stamann specialises in dragging his opponents into deep water – and then drowning them.
Kelleher’s striking power might surprise ‘The Spartan’ , but eventually I suspect that wrestling advantage is going to tell, and Stamann will be able to overwhelm ‘Boom’ on the ground – picking up a submission win in the process.
Finally Middleweights Charles Byrd and Maki Pitolo face off. Byrd has been disappointing in his UFC career to date, losing his last two fights in one-sided fashion, and the truth is that the 36-year old grappler is perhaps too far past his athletic prime to succeed in the Octagon. Pitolo didn’t show a lot in his own UFC debut, but he’s explosive and hits hard, and I’m banking on that being enough to win him a TKO here.
#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
Finally we have three prelim fights on ESPN+. At Flyweight, veteran Jussier Formiga takes on the explosive Alex Perez. A few years ago, this would’ve sounded like a horribly dangerous fight for Formiga; the Brazilian is an incredible grappler but back then, his striking and takedowns left a lot to be desired.
Now though, his striking has developed to the point where he was able to hold his own with the feared ‘God of War’, top-ranked 125lber Deiveson Figueiredo. That would usually bode well – but Formiga was also outworked by Brandon Moreno in his last outing, bringing into question how much he has left in the tank at 35 years old.
Perez meanwhile has shown himself to be ultra-explosive, with the capabilities of pushing the pace enough to make most of his victims – 5 of which were in the UFC – wilt. This should come down to whether Perez can force Formiga to fight at his pace. If he can, then he can probably outwork the Brazilian and pick up his biggest win to date. It’ll be tricky for him, but I’m leaning towards Perez taking a decision here, purely because of Formiga’s age. I’m going with Perez via decision.
At Light-Heavyweight, veteran Devin Clark faces heavy hitter Alonzo Menifield. Menifield has thus far been devastating in the Octagon; his ruthless punching power has given him 2 violent wins, and at 32 years old he’s primed to make a run for the top. A veteran fighter could drag him into deeper waters, but I don’t think Clark is that veteran. ‘Brown Bear’ is tough, but he’s also slower, hittable, and has been stopped before. Menifield via first round knockout is my pick.
Finally, at a 150lbs catchweight, longtime veteran Evan Dunham faces off with Herbert Burns, brother of current Welterweight contender Gilbert. Burns made his debut earlier this year, knocking out Nate Landwehr with a knee, while we haven’t seen Dunham since his 2018 loss to Francisco Trinaldo.
This is a worrying fight for Dunham, who hasn’t won since 2016; he’s 38 years old and his athleticism is waning, his durability is all but gone and he’s faced with a tremendous athlete and grappler who’s also developing hugely in striking too. I don’t think this one lasts very long and I think Burns wins by TKO. Hopefully, Dunham – a genuinely great fighter in his prime – will hang it up afterwards.
