UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa - Predictions and Picks

It's a big show this weekend as Israel Adesanya faces Paulo Costa in the main event of UFC 253.
It's a big show this weekend as Israel Adesanya faces Paulo Costa in the main event of UFC 253.

#4 UFC Bantamweight Division: Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks

Ketlen Vieira has outgrappled strong fighters like Cat Zingano during her UFC career.
Ketlen Vieira has outgrappled strong fighters like Cat Zingano during her UFC career.

This fight would initially have seen Brazil’s Vieira taking on Marion Reneau. But with ‘The Belizean Bruiser’ out with an injury, Eubanks – who only fought in the UFC a couple of weeks ago, beating Julia Avila via decision – has stepped in on very late notice.

It’s the kind of risky fight that few others would’ve taken, particularly this close to a previous bout. If anything, it’s reminiscent of Chris Leben taking two back-to-back UFC fights back in 2010. ‘The Crippler’ won those two, but can Eubanks do the same? I’m not so sure.

‘Sarj’ won her fight with Avila largely due to her tremendous grappling and top game in particular, even if she was clearly willing to trade wild strikes with ‘The Raging Panda.’ A legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with some success in the world championships, Eubanks is highly skilled on the ground.

However, is she going to be able to implement that ground game against Vieira? ‘Fenomeno’ is also a ground specialist – a fellow black belt in both BJJ and judo. And while she doesn’t have the kind of credentials that Eubanks does, she has been able to firmly out-grapple some serious opponents in the UFC.

Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, and Ashlee Evans-Smith – all large Bantamweights with excellent grappling – fell to the Brazilian. And while Irene Aldana was able to hand Vieira her first UFC loss last year, she did it by stopping the takedown and out-striking her standing.

Could Eubanks repeat that gameplan? It’s a possibility. She’s got a couple of knockouts on her record and was more than willing to trade with Avila. But she’s also not the most natural kickboxer and certainly doesn’t possess the slick boxing that Aldana does.

The biggest issue for her in this fight is likely to be size. It’s telling that all of Eubanks’ three UFC losses – to Katlyn Chookagian, Aspen Ladd, and Bethe Correia – came against much larger opponents. Correia isn’t even the best athlete and yet she was able to stop the takedown and outpoint ‘Sarj’ standing.

Vieira isn’t the most natural striker either, but she’s going to be far bigger than Eubanks and definitely has the ability to put her on her back – something that ‘Sarj’ just isn’t used to. Given that ‘Fenomeno’ took down McMann – an Olympic wrestler – it’s hard to imagine her struggling to take Eubanks off her feet.

Eubanks has the skill to keep this a competitive fight. But I suspect that Vieira will just have a little too much for her to handle on the ground, and out-grapple her for a unanimous decision.

The Pick: Vieira via unanimous decision

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