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This weekend at UFC 289, Irene Aldana will attempt to shock the world when she faces Amanda Nunes for the women’s bantamweight title.
Irene Aldana will be coming into this fight as a major underdog, particularly as she’s taken the fight on relatively late notice, so can she upset Amanda Nunes?
It’s hard to say, and as always, there are arguments for both sides.
Here are three reasons why Irene Aldana can upset Amanda Nunes at UFC 289 – and two reasons why she’ll fail:
#3. Irene Aldana’s striking style could give Amanda Nunes problems
Amanda Nunes is arguably the most fearsome female striker in MMA history. ‘The Lioness holds a ridiculous list of knockout victims, including Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm, and throws her punches with incredible power.
Despite this, the Brazilian arguably isn’t the most technical striker, or at least, she isn’t when she’s flurrying on her opponents with wild punches.
Because of this, it’s arguable that a fighter who is able to strike from distance with straight punches could actually outstrike ‘The Lioness’.
That’s what happened when Nunes fought Julianna Pena at UFC 269 in 2021. While not being recognised for her striking, Pena’s straighter punches began to find their mark as Nunes tired in the second round. From there, ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ was able to hurt the champion, setting up a fight-ending submission.
Irene Aldana does not hit with the same power as Nunes, but the Mexican does have a slight reach advantage over the Brazilian. More to the point, she definitely likes to throw straight, technical punches, and fights well behind her jab.
If she can avoid the big power punch, then, the style of ‘Robles’ could make things difficult for Nunes, and lead directly to a massive upset.
#2. Irene Aldana’s late notice might play into her hands
Irene Aldana was not initially pegged to fight Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight title this weekend. Instead, the UFC were set to allow Julianna Pena a third fight against ‘The Lioness’ following their second bout last summer.
However, in early May, Pena suffered an injury. Instead, Aldana stepped in to take the fight with Nunes.
Despite only taking the fight on around five weeks’ notice, could this lack of preparation time play into Aldana’s hands? Surprisingly, it could.
Firstly, Pena is more of a grappling-based fighter than the Mexican, who is largely known for her technical striking style. Therefore, it’s highly likely that Nunes will have prepared more for wrestling and takedowns than the kickboxing that Aldana is going to bring.
Secondly, ‘Robles’ probably hasn’t had the time to really compute the magnitude of what she’s about to do this weekend.
This fight represents the biggest opportunity of Aldana’s career, but due to the late notice of the fight, it may well come without a lot of the pressure that it would usually entail.
Facing a champion as good as Amanda Nunes is always likely to be tricky, but Aldana will be facing a version of Nunes who was preparing for someone else, without a lot of the pressure that a shot at ‘The Lioness’ would usually bring.
With that considered, this feels like a fight that is ripe to produce an upset.
#1. Amanda Nunes is getting old
Amanda Nunes is undoubtedly the greatest female MMA fighter of all time. A double UFC champion since 2018, ‘The Lioness’ has lost once in the past nine years, and holds wins over seven current or former UFC titleholders.
However, while she looked excellent in her win over Julianna Pena last July, almost another year has passed by since that fight.
Father Time waits for no fighter, and Nunes turned 35 years old at the end of last month. When you add in the fact that she’s been fighting in the UFC for almost a decade, and has been fighting in professional MMA since 2008, quite how much longer she can remain at her current level is anyone’s guess.
In fact, ‘The Lioness’ did look a little over-cooked in her loss to Pena in December 2021, and has openly spoken about retirement on numerous occasions in recent years.
With all of this considered, it isn’t a stretch to think that Nunes could be reaching the end of her storied career. If she looks at all past her prime this weekend, then Irene Aldana could capitalise – and produce a monstrous upset.
With some of the reasons why Irene Aldana might beat Amanda Nunes this weekend considered, here are two reasons why the upset won’t happen.
#2. Irene Aldana has a major Achilles heel on the ground
While Irene Aldana is clearly an excellent fighter who has a very dangerous striking game, the Mexican does have four losses on her UFC record.
While it’s probably worth overlooking her first two, which came way back in 2016 and 2017, it’s hard to ignore her defeat at the hands of Holly Holm, which came in October 2021.
That fight saw Aldana lose a decision to ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ and worryingly, the fight saw her completely outworked on the ground.
Holm landed five of her 14 takedown attempts, and was able to control Aldana on the ground for a total of just over five minutes.
Given that ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ is widely known for her kickboxing and not her takedowns, this is probably worrying.
Unlike Holm, Amanda Nunes is a fearsome grappler who is very capable of taking her foes down, and if she can get top position, then she’s brutal with her ground-and-pound.
Unless Aldana can stop this fight from hitting the ground – and based on her loss to Holm, that’s doubtful – then there’s no way that she’ll be able to pull off an upset this weekend.
#1. Amanda Nunes looked awesome in her last fight
Irene Aldana might be hopeful of catching Amanda Nunes on an off-night this weekend. After all, ‘The Lioness’ is 35 years old and has already contemplated retirement. Therefore, UFC 289 could well prove to be her last dance.
However, to rely on that would be utter madness.
The last time we saw Nunes in action was back in July 2022 at UFC 277. The Brazilian had lost her bantamweight title to Julianna Pena seven months prior, and many fans expected her to struggle in the rematch, too, based on how their first bout had gone.
Instead, Nunes produced one of the best showings of her career to completely destroy ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ over five rounds.
Nunes landed 126 strikes, 85 of which were significant ones, and scored three knockdowns of her foe. She also took her down on six occasions and enjoyed over eleven minutes of control time.
Based on this, there’s very little evidence that time has caught up with ‘The Lioness’, meaning that the chances of her producing less than her best this weekend seem slim.
If Nunes is at her best, she’s nearly impossible to beat – making an upset very unlikely this weekend.
