UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena prediction, stats, and fight breakdown

The UFC is set to visit Montreal, Quebec next weekend for what looks to be a major pay-per-view event. In the headliner, the welterweight title is on the line.

Belal Muhammad captured the welterweight crown last summer by dominating Leon Edwards at UFC 304. However, this will be his first title defense, as a bone infection forced him out of a planned bout with Shavkat Rakhmonov in December.

Rakhmonov was expected to remain at the front of the queue for a title shot, but due to an injury, it won't be here. Instead, Jack Della Maddalena has been granted the opportunity, despite only being ranked at No. 5 in the division.

So can Muhammad keep hold of his title at UFC 315, or will 'JDM' pull off what would be considered an upset victory?

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UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena stats

It's fair to say that when comparing records, Belal Muhammad has more experience than Jack Della Maddalena, both in the octagon and in MMA overall.

'Remember the Name' sports a record of 24-3 with a single no contest on his ledger. Della Maddalena, meanwhile, is 17-2 overall.

However, Muhammad has fought on 15 occasions in the octagon, with all three of his losses coming there. He's been on the roster for almost a decade now, debuting in 2016.

'JDM', on the other hand, debuted in January 2022 and has fought in the octagon on seven occasions. He is unbeaten since arriving in the promotion, though, and has in fact not lost since May 2016.

It's fair to say that 'Remember the Name' has probably fought the better opponents over the years, as he holds wins over Leon Edwards, Sean Brady, Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson.

However, Della Maddalena has impressed each time he's taken a step up in competition, and in seven visits to the octagon, he's won five post-fight bonuses. This shows that he's a fighter who is aggressive and willing to take risks to get the job done.

In terms of physical stats, these two are almost identical. Both men stand at 5ft 11in, with Della Maddalena having a very slight reach advantage of 1in.

Neither man appears to go through a hellish weight cut to hit the 170 pound welterweight mark, with no weight misses for either man throughout their tenure with the promotion. Therefore, both men should be in prime shape in Montreal.

UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena breakdown and prediction

This fight should be a classic clash of styles, with Belal Muhammad probably looking to use his wrestling and clinch work to grind Jack Della Maddalena down.

On the flip side, 'JDM' will no doubt want to keep his distance, and will hope to use his boxing skills, fast hands and striking power to hurt Muhammad, with the goal being a knockout or TKO.

There's no doubt that the Australian does have the punching power to get this done. Of his 17 career wins, 12 have come via KO or TKO, including four in the UFC.

However, it's well worth noting that Muhammad isn't exactly an easy fighter to knock out. 'Remember the Name' has only been stopped once, by Vicente Luque back in 2016.

When you consider that he's since fought heavy hitters like Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal, Leon Edwards and Luque in a rematch, it's fair to say that he has a pretty stout chin.

Part of this, of course, comes from Muhammad's pressure-heavy style. With a seemingly endless gas tank and an excellent wrestling game, opponents tend to find it hard to keep the reigning welterweight champ off them.

He isn't a heavy hitter per say - although he did knock out Sean Brady in their bout - but if he wants to strike, Muhammad can push a nasty pace. He beat Gilbert Burns, for instance, on sheer volume, landing 132 significant strikes across five rounds.

Edwards, meanwhile, simply couldn't shake 'Remember the Name' off him. Over their five-round bout, 'Rocky' was controlled either on the ground or in the clinch for a total of 12 minutes, almost half the fight.

Della Maddalena has not yet faced an opponent who will look to stick to him like glue as Muhammad will. He did beat Burns last year, but gave up seven takedowns and was grounded in all three rounds.

His comeback, to win via a big knee and a series of follow-up strikes, was hugely exciting and impressive.

However, it's unlikely that Muhammad will run out of steam in the same way that 'Durinho' did, and 'JDM' has not fought for five rounds in the octagon yet.

Della Maddalena is definitely more likely to throw caution to the wind than Edwards did in his loss to Muhammad, as 'Rocky' tends to be a safety-first fighter while 'JDM' is reckless to a fault.

However, the fact that he's never fought a five-rounder and was taken down by Burns on so many occasions is a major red flag for this fight, as is the fact that the unheralded Bassil Hafez landed three takedowns on the Australian in their clash.

With that considered, then, the most likely outcome here is that Muhammad eats some heavy shots, but manages to work through them to impose his will on Della Maddelana. The prediction is a successful title defense for the champ.

The Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins via decision

UFC 315: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot breakdown and prediction

This event's co-headliner will see the flyweight title on the line, as champ Valentina Shevchenko will defend against top contender Manon Fiorot.

Shevchenko is just beginning her second reign as champ, after regaining her title from Alexa Grasso in a dominant performance last September. Fiorot, meanwhile, is riding a 12-fight win streak, with seven wins in the octagon.

'The Beast' will hope to use her striking to pick Shevchenko apart, but to be honest, unless Father Time has caught 'The Bullet', that is doubtful.

Nobody - not even legendary strikers Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Amanda Nunes - has gotten the better of Shevchenko on the feet in her decade-long octagon career. To add to this, 'The Bullet' is a lethal grappler with excellent takedowns to fall back on too.

It's unlikely that Fiorot will be well-rounded enough to match this, and so although it's fair to give her a puncher's chance, we should expect this fight to be dominant for the champ.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins via third-round submission

UFC 315: Undercard predictions

Picks in bold

UFC bantamweight bout: Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi

UFC flyweight bout: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva

UFC lightweight bout: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Joel Alvarez

UFC welterweight bout: Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba

UFC flyweight bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan

UFC middleweight bout: Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva

UFC bantamweight bout: Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan

About the author

Scott is a veteran MMA writer with over two decades of experience, including his ongoing tenure in Sportskeeda, which began seven years ago. He has written over 3000 pieces for the organization, while also covering football. Before joining Sportskeeda, Scott wrote articles for websites like The Oratory and Inside Pulse MMA.

Scott has a degree in history, which drives his research skills and helps him compile accurate information. His long stint in the field helps Scott provide a clear take on important topics, such as the criticism of promotions regarding fighter pay. While he feels fighters deserve a bigger revenue share, he doesn’t want MMA to suffer with purse-split issues.

Scott’s work has been previously reshared by the former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman. He uses credible sources, such as the UFC’s official website, during the writing process.

His dedication to MMA writing won him the Feature Writer of the Month award for Sportskeeda in November 2021.

Outside of work, Scott likes to go to the gym, walk his dog, and travel.

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Edited by Harvey Leonard