UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige - Predictions and Picks

Calvin Kattar faces Dan Ige in the main event of the UFC's second Fight Island show next Wednesday
Calvin Kattar faces Dan Ige in the main event of the UFC's second Fight Island show next Wednesday

#2 UFC Featherweight Division: Jimmie Rivera vs. Cody Stamann

Jimmie Rivera has beaten the likes of John Dodson during his UFC tenure
Jimmie Rivera has beaten the likes of John Dodson during his UFC tenure

With the loss of Edgar vs. Munhoz, it’s expected that this clash of the top ten UFC Bantamweights will serve as the co-main event. Intriguingly, it’s been reported that the fight will take place at 145lbs. Does this mean both men are moving up for good? It’s doubtful and is probably more telling of the relatively late notice for the fight.

Nor should it really matter. Both men have competed at 145lbs before, and with a decent level of success, too.

On paper at least, this seems like a classic striker vs. grappler match. Rivera is a seasoned kickboxer fighting out of the Tiger Schulmann camp, and he’s well-versed in traditional martial arts too, making him somewhat of an unorthodox striker.

Stamann, on the other hand, is an excellent wrestler who’s more than capable of grounding a foe and beating them up. The one knock on both men? Probably finishing ability. Rivera is 6-3 in the UFC, Stamann 5-1-1, but the only finish between them came from Rivera back in 2015.

This is a pretty tough one to call, actually. Sure, Rivera hasn’t fought since June 2019 and has lost his previous two fights, but they were against Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling, arguably the best two 135lbers in the UFC right now.

‘El Terror’ actually did really well against Yan at UFC 238, largely out-striking him for periods of their fight. His downfall largely came because the Russian was the more powerful striker, but overall it wasn’t a loss to be ashamed of. His fight with Sterling at UFC on ESPN 1 might be more worrying when it comes to this fight.

That’s because ‘Funk Master’ was able to use the threat of his grappling game to force Rivera into his shell. ‘El Terror’ wasn’t really able to get his striking going and so Sterling largely outworked him in all areas of the fight.

The likelihood is that Stamann will attempt to recreate that gameplan as really, it’s the only way anyone’s really beaten Rivera thoroughly in the UFC. Sure, Marlon Moraes KO’d him in seconds, but realistically, Moraes can do that to anyone. Stamann can’t.

The issue that I see Stamann having when it comes to replicating Sterling’s gameplan is that he lacks the range of ‘Funk Master’. Sterling prefers to use his long reach and length to unleash a kicking-based striking game. Judging from Stamann’s previous UFC fights, he’s much more of a boxing-based striker.

He’s also had issues with strikers with a lot of range and movement before. His controversial draw with Song Yadong saw him take plenty of damage on the feet, while Tom Duquesnoy also landed plenty of shots on him despite succumbing to Stamann’s wrestling game.

Overall this should be a fast-paced fight, but I’m favoring Rivera. ‘El Terror’ has excellent takedown defense, a longer reach than Stamann, and has the kind of movement and kicking game that should give ‘The Spartan’ a lot of trouble.

Can he finish Stamann? It’s highly doubtful. ‘The Spartan’ is incredibly tough as we saw against Song. In fact, the only man to finish him was Sterling, and that took him essentially ripping Stamann’s knee to shreds. But I definitely think Rivera is good enough to out-point him to get back into the winning groove.

The Pick: Rivera via unanimous decision

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