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The UFC’s crazy schedule continues this weekend with another Fight Night card on ESPN+ in the US, as the promotion will head to Nashville, Tennessee for the first time since April 2017 for UFC Fight Night 148: Thompson vs. Pettis.
On paper at least this appears to be the weakest card of the UFC’s most recent efforts, although there are still at least four or five fights on offer that should provide plenty of action. The main event, in particular, sounds pretty crazy – essentially a non-title ‘superfight’.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 148: Thompson vs. Pettis.
#1 Stephen Thompson vs. Anthony Pettis
This is one of those matches that almost sounds wrong when you hear it initially but makes a ton of sense when you actually step back to think about it for a second. Stephen Thompson hasn’t fought since his May 2018 loss to Darren Till – a razor-close decision – while Anthony Pettis has never fought above 155lbs before and has even competed at 145lbs. Essentially then, the UFC has made this fight as the two men are two of the best strikers in the sport, and prior to the booking, both men felt miles away from the title picture in their respective divisions.
That may well have changed since; Thompson came up short in two title challenges against Tyron Woodley, meaning a third title shot was always unlikely, but of course, Kamaru Usman has since dethroned ‘The Chosen One’. Thompson probably won’t earn another title shot with a win here, but it’d certainly put him back into contention. So can he pick up a victory over ‘Showtime’?
This is a fascinating match because really, it’s likely to take place purely in the striking realm. Pettis is a far more proven grappler – he has numerous submissions on his ledger including wins over Michael Chiesa and Benson Henderson – but he’s not a natural offensive wrestler and he’ll almost definitely be the smaller man in the cage. Plus, Thompson’s takedown defense is pretty great to the point that even Woodley found it hard to ground him.
Both men are also highly unorthodox strikers. ‘Wonderboy’ comes from a karate background and uses that point-fighting style to great effect, darting in and out with strikes almost like a fencer would, and his traditional martial arts training shines through in his use of various flashy kicks. Pettis meanwhile is more of a classic Muay Thai striker who loves to throw kicks to the legs, body and head, but he’s also capable of wild strikes – most notably his famous ‘Showtime Kick’ from his WEC bout with Henderson in 2010.
Where this one becomes tricky to break down is in terms of who’s going to push the fight. Thompson is very much a counter-striker – try to hit him and he’ll probably catch you with three shots in response, but if his opponent doesn’t push forward, it’s easy to lull him into a low output fight, as Till did last year. On the other hand, Pettis is more aggressive, but notably has problems if an opponent forces him to retreat and go backwards.
So for me, the big question here is whether Thompson decides to eschew his usual counter-striking style to push the pace on Pettis in an attempt to make him break as Rafael Dos Anjos, Tony Ferguson and Edson Barboza did. An aggressive Thompson is an interesting thought – we’ve seen him swarm opponents before, but those swarms have usually come after he’s hurt somebody. The problem for ‘Wonderboy’ might come if he decides to employ his usual gameplan.
That’s because by standing off at range and allowing Pettis to come to him, he risks getting caught by something nasty from a fighter who, due to his smaller size, should theoretically have a speed advantage. Even Max Holloway wasn’t able to counter Pettis successfully – instead, he too used the same aggressive gameplan to back ‘Showtime’ up and punish him as he retreated.
Part of me favors Pettis here, simply because whenever he’s been involved in striking matches before and an opponent hasn’t forced him to retreat, he’s won. It’s admittedly true that he hasn’t faced a striker as skilled as Thompson before, but styles make fights and it is possible to imagine ‘Wonderboy’ and his almost pure counter-striking game struggling for success against someone as quick and dynamic as Pettis.
With that said though, Wonderboy easily picked Jorge Masvidal apart when they fought, and while I’d argue Masvidal isn’t as quick or dynamic as Pettis, he’s more durable and gave up a lot of size to Thompson, who’s a deceivingly large Welterweight. This could be a dull fight for a while as Pettis attempts to find his range while Thompson goes into counter-mode, but I think in the end Thompson will catch ‘Showtime’ with something nasty and I don’t think Pettis will survive the swarm that follows.
The Pick: Thompson via third round TKO
#2 Curtis Blaydes vs. Justin Willis
As 2018 came towards its end, it looked like Curtis Blaydes would be closing in on a Heavyweight title shot. The hulking wrestler was coming off back-to-back wins over veteran contenders Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem and looked great in both fights, and only Francis Ngannou – who was responsible for his only loss in the UFC in 7 fights – stood in his way.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go the way of ‘Razor’, as he was knocked out by Ngannou in just 45 seconds. Blaydes attempted to protest the stoppage, but if he wasn’t out, he was definitely in trouble and it was certainly a justified call from the referee. Depending on how this upcoming fight goes though, it could be considered a blessing in disguise. Blaydes might well be the future UFC Heavyweight champion, but at 28 he’s still very young and a title shot this year probably would’ve been too much, too soon.
He’s faced with a fellow young gun here in the form of American Kickboxing Academy’s Justin Willis, an unbeaten fighter who recently outpointed Mark Hunt in December. ‘Big Pretty’ is 4-0 in the UFC, 8-1 overall, and appears to have some excellent skills that belie his flabby frame. In that sense, he’s very similar to his teammate, current UFC Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier.
Willis’ biggest strength appears to be his striking game. Despite coming in at nearly the limit for the Heavyweight division at around 265lbs, Willis is surprisingly sprightly on the feet, and puts together quick, sharp combinations based around some nifty footwork and a decent jab. This was on show in his victory over Hunt, although it must be noted that Hunt looked terrible in that fight, and seemingly didn’t want to be in the Octagon.
That style does seem to be a major plus point against Blaydes, who is still a developing striker for the most part. Blaydes has power, but he remains extremely hittable, as we saw against Ngannou. He was also rocked pretty badly by Hunt before recovering to dominate him on the ground, and he was also hit pretty heavily by Overeem, and also by Alexei Oleinik in their 2017 fight. It must be said though that he does have a good chin – Ngannou knockout aside, he’s always recovered from big shots well and despite his unusual power, even Ngannou couldn’t knock him completely out.
Where Blaydes excels is in his wrestling. A couple more takedowns would allow him to break the record for most takedowns in UFC Heavyweight history – a record which currently belongs to Willis’ teammate Cain Velasquez. And while Hunt, Overeem, and Oleinik aren’t known for their stellar takedown defense, it’s hard to see anyone stopping Blaydes’ double leg.
At 6’4” and 265lbs, Blaydes is simply a huge, powerful athlete, and he probably would’ve gone on to become an NCAA All-American had he remained in education – he did win the NJCAA National Championship at Harper College, for instance. That means he’s one of the best wrestlers in the division, point blank – and while training with Cormier and Velasquez should prepare Willis well, it’s notable that Blaydes is much bigger than both men.
I’m going with Blaydes here for a couple of reasons; firstly, I’m not sure that Willis can defend Blaydes’ takedowns, and if Blaydes does get him down, he’s pretty ruthless with his ground striking and we’ve seen nothing from Willis on his back yet. Secondly, despite his striking skills, Willis doesn’t seem to pack all that much power – he couldn’t finish James Mulheron or Chase Sherman for instance, and Blaydes does have a good chin.
That could be something to do with the fact that Willis just isn’t a big Heavyweight – at 6’1” he probably shouldn’t be weighing 265lbs, and against a genuinely huge guy in Blaydes, I think that could come home to roost. This might be a bit of a wake-up call for Willis in fact, faced with a hulking wrestler in Blaydes who’s equally as fast as he is. ‘Big Pretty’ has skills, but I think he’s outmatched here.
The Pick: Blaydes via unanimous decision
#3 John Makdessi vs. Jesus Pinedo
It probably speaks a little to the lack of depth in this card that John Makdessi – who would probably be best described as a journeyman at this stage – features on the main card against a relative UFC rookie in Pinedo. To be fair, Makdessi was initially pegged to face solid prospect Nasrat Haqparast while Pinedo would’ve faced Chris Gruetzemacher on the prelims, but injuries to Haqparast and Gruetzemacher left us with this fight instead.
Pinedo debuted back in November with a win over Devin Powell at the UFC’s first show in Argentina, largely using his wrestling skill to ground Powell, although he also outstruck his opponent for the most part. Judging on his highlight reel, he’s got skills in all areas and is aggressive to a fault. His best area appears to be his ground-and-pound – and worryingly for Makdessi, he appears to be excellent at catching kicks and turning them into takedowns.
Where Makdessi holds the big advantage here is in experience. ‘The Bull’ has been in the UFC since 2010 and has quietly put together 15 fights, going 9-6 overall, and he’s currently on a two-fight winning streak. An unorthodox kickboxer who loves spinning attacks – witness his famous spinning backfist KO of Kyle Watson in 2011 – Makdessi is at his best as a counter-striker.
Most notably, the Canadian simply eats any sloppy-but-aggressive foes alive with his striking. His 2013 knockout of Renee Forte, for instance, saw him fight like a matador, catching the Brazilian rushing in and landing clean shots on him until he put him away just 2 minutes into the first round. Makdessi can be beaten on the feet, largely by foes who stay at distance and pick at him from the outside, and his grappling has traditionally been weaker than his striking although it’s been a while since we’ve seen it.
This one feels tricky to pick for me; Pinedo is definitely wild in terms of his striking style and that could definitely play into Makdessi’s hands, but there’s also the chance that he simply overwhelms the Canadian by getting him to the ground and taking him out there. But what makes me lean away from picking the Peruvian fighter is that most of his previous victims were massively overmatched; even Powell hadn’t really proven himself at the elite level.
In the end, I think Pinedo’s aggression is going to cost him in this fight. He’s a young fighter who will probably learn from the experience but I think the way he fights plays directly into Makdessi’s hands, and should give ‘The Bull’ another highlight reel knockout – and put him on a surprising 3-fight win streak.
The Pick: Makdessi via first round KO
#4 Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Jussier Formiga
Under regular circumstances – as in, no rumors about the death of the division swirling around – you’d probably have said this would be a fight to decide the next top contender at Flyweight. Formiga – once considered the world’s top Flyweight in the days before the UFC promoted the division – is on a 3-fight winning streak, has finally started to finish more fights, and he had a close match with champion Henry Cejudo back in 2015.
His countryman Figueiredo meanwhile is perfect at 15-0 and put a real beatdown on former title contender John Moraga back in August, taking the tough wrestler out with a series of brutal strikes in the second round. That was his 4th UFC win, and he’s only gone the distance twice in his career – once in the UFC with Jarred Brooks in what was clearly his toughest fight to date.
For me, this should come down to whether Jussier Formiga can weather what is likely to be a pretty nasty storm from ‘Deus Da Guerra’ – a scary nickname which translates to ‘God of War’ – and get him to the ground, preferably where he can take the back and look for a choke. There aren’t many fighters in the whole sport better at capitalizing on a dominant position from the back than Formiga, after all.
Unfortunately, Formiga just isn’t an A+ athlete, and that’s what has me worried for him when it comes to this fight. Against John Dodson for instance in his UFC debut, Formiga was simply outgunned – he couldn’t get close to the quicker, more explosive Dodson, ate a ton of nasty strikes and got knocked out violently. The same thing happened when he fought Joseph Benavidez, and while he did better with Cejudo, that was a highly inexperienced version of the current champion who wasn’t that comfortable striking.
Essentially Sergio Pettis was probably the first really great athlete that Formiga was able to beat in his UFC tenure, and Pettis infamously tends to fight in spurts and is somewhat inconsistent. Figueiredo meanwhile is a violent, explosive striker who chains combinations together and is technically outstanding, too. The way he destroyed Moraga by setting him up with shots to the body was beautiful.
Figueiredo is wildly unproven on the ground in the UFC, largely because he hasn’t really needed to go there, but he didn’t look terrible there when he was taken down by a strong wrestler in Jarred Brooks. Granted Brooks isn’t anywhere near as skilled as Formiga on the ground, but even then I suspect Figueiredo could explode his way out of a lot of things – as long as he doesn’t give Formiga his back of course.
I’m going with Figueiredo here; I just think he’s too explosive and aggressive on the feet for Formiga to handle and I’m not sure that Formiga will be able to take him down. Even if he does get him down, realistically the only way he’s going to put ‘Deus Da Guerra’ away is by taking his back, and assuming Figueiredo doesn’t allow that to happen, then for me, this is his fight to lose.
The Pick: Figueiredo via second round KO
#5 Luis Pena vs. Steven Peterson
Luis Pena – AKA ‘The Violent Bob Ross’ – rose to fame on last spring’s TUF 27, being pegged as the early favorite to win the Lightweight tournament before dropping out with an injury. Pena made good on his UFC debut, easily choking out Richie Smullen, but his flaws – questionable cardio and defense – were on full display against the season’s eventual winner Mike Trizano, who beat him via split decision.
Pena has chosen to drop to 145lbs for this fight with Steven Peterson – an interesting move given he was already a large 155lber with a huge frame at 6’3”. Whether he can even make 145lbs is a question mark to me, but I’m going to assume he’ll make it, although it’s clearly a massive risk for him. A botched weight cut could leave him completely drawn out come fight night, and a loss here could well cost him his place on the UFC roster.
Peterson debuted in the UFC in 2018, strangely off a loss on Dana White’s Contender Series and a subsequent win on the smaller circuit. He showed little more than raw toughness in his fight with Brandon Davis, almost being knocked out on a couple of occasions but managing to survive, and then he picked up his first UFC win in December, edging out Matt Bessette largely with his ground game after being lit up standing in the early going.
From what I’ve seen from Peterson, he’s a generally solid fighter offensively, but his big problem is that his defense, particularly on the feet, is pretty appalling. He’s very hittable and seems to rely on his chin to get him out of trouble, and while that’s all well and good, a strong chin can’t hold up forever and taking shots can always lead to a loss on the judges’ scorecards too.
Assuming Pena isn’t too drained from the weight cut this should be a winnable fight for him – his long reach means he should be able to abuse Peterson from the outside without taking too much damage in return, and he’s good enough on the ground to outscramble ‘Ocho’ there as well. Peterson is tough enough not to count out, particularly if Pena gasses out at any stage, but I think ‘Violent Bob Ross’ can build enough of an early lead to take a lopsided decision.
The Pick: Pena via unanimous decision
#6 Maycee Barber vs. JJ Aldrich
This Flyweight fight should be pretty exciting to watch if Maycee Barber’s UFC debut is anything to go by. ‘The Future’ wrecked Hannah Cifers with some brutal elbows in that fight, stopping her midway through the second round, and looked every bit the hot prospect. At 20 years old it’s clearly best for the UFC to bring her along slowly – but Barber may have different ideas, as she’s already stated that she wants to become the youngest champion in UFC history.
JJ Aldrich is a step up in competition from Cifers – she’s 3-1 in the UFC – but I’m not sure she’s got enough to handle Barber here. Her wins inside the Octagon were all pretty dull affairs – her fights with Danielle Taylor and Polyana Viana were painfully bad, with Aldrich simply doing just enough to outstrike two fighters who couldn’t get her to the ground.
When she was grounded, in her fight with Juliana Lima in 2016, she had very little answer for the Brazilian’s strong top game. The difference here is that where Lima simply looked to control Aldrich positionally, Barber will be looking to smash her to pieces with punches and elbows. Judging on her fight with Cifers – and on her appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series – she’s definitely got the skills to do that.
Against a more experienced opponent, I’d worry that Barber’s aggression would get the better of her, but Aldrich only has 3 more fights than the youngster and in all honesty hasn’t shown anything to suggest she’s a truly dangerous opponent for ‘The Future’. For me, this is a chance for Barber to step up in competition while avoiding being thrown to the wolves of the division, and I think she’ll win in style.
The Pick: Barber via second round TKO
#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
As with last week’s Fight Night 147, all of the prelims on this show will be broadcast on ESPN+. Headlining the prelim card is a fight between Bryce Mitchell and Bobby Moffett at Featherweight, a curious choice given both men lack UFC experience – and Mitchell only rose to fame following an accident last year that saw him drill through his scrotum (!). Both men appear to favor submissions over anything else – and although Mitchell is 10-0, I’m favoring Moffett here. His win over Chas Skelly was massively impressive, particularly for a UFC debut, and if Mitchell looks to grapple with him I think he’ll get choked out.
At Bantamweight, Marlon Vera takes on Frankie Saenz in a fight that was initially scheduled for UFC 235, but got postponed due to an illness suffered by Vera. An offensive expert, Vera is one of the best fighters to watch at 135lbs, but he still has holes in his game and can be stifled, particularly by fighters who can force him onto his back foot. I’m not sure Saenz is that fighter – he’s more of a wrestler than anything else and that style leaves him open to be finished by Vera, who can both submit and finish by strikes with equal aplomb. I’ll take Vera to find a submission after hurting Saenz and giving up a subsequent takedown.
Former Bantamweight title challenger Alexis Davis returns at Flyweight to face off with Jennifer Maia in a fight that could easily have been put on the main card, given Davis’ current ranking of #5. A well-rounded fighter, Davis has skills in all areas but has traditionally struggled with superior athletes – she was outpointed by Katlyn Chookagian in her last fight for instance. Maia came into the UFC with a huge reputation last year, but a debut loss to Liz Carmouche was massively disappointing for her. A dangerous striker, she should be more comfortable this time around, and so I think she has enough to outwork Davis for a decision.
Two of the UFC’s most inconsistent talents face off at Strawweight as Randa Markos faces Angela Hill. Markos has shown flashes of being a legitimate title contender at times – she has excellent grappling skills, solid striking and has wins over Tecia Torres, Carla Esparza and Felice Herrig, but she also has a tendency to make mistakes that cost her fights – such as the brainfart that saw her get submitted by Cortney Casey in 2016. Hill is equally frustrating; a dangerous striker, she’s capable of taking out anyone in the division, but tends to let rounds run away from her, an issue that’s cost her 5 UFC fights. I worry for her on the ground with Markos though – she’s still hugely unproven there and hasn’t fought a top grappler in a long time. I’m leaning towards Markos winning with a submission.
At Bantamweight, Chris Gutierrez takes on Ryan MacDonald in a tricky fight to pick. On one hand, Gutierrez showed very little in his UFC debut against Raoni Barcelos last year, but to be fair, Barcelos is a very good fighter. And on the other hand, while MacDonald is 10-0, he’s literally been snacking on super-weak opposition throughout his career. I’m going with Gutierrez here, he’s more experienced against tougher opposition than MacDonald and should make that tell by winning a clear decision.
Finally the show opens with a Flyweight match between Eric Shelton and Jordan Espinosa. It’s surprising that a new Flyweight would be debuting at this stage, but that situation is just too confusing right now. At any rate, Espinosa looked excellent in his Contender Series fight, taking out his opponent with punches in the third round. Shelton meanwhile is 2-3 in the UFC, but his losses were all to very tough opponents. I’m going with Shelton here; his UFC experience and overall skills should allow him to win a decision I think.
