UFC Fight Night 163: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to Russia this weekend for their second show in the city of Moscow, as hot prospects Zabit Magomedsharipov and Calvin Kattar clash in what should be a hell of a fight in the main event of UFC Fight Night 163.

The show has a heavy Russian feel to it – hardly surprising given the large Russian contingent of fighters currently signed to the UFC – as just one bout on the 13-fight card features two fighters hailing from elsewhere. As you’d expect for a European Fight Night card the show is low on name value, but hopefully it’ll still be action-packed.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 163: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar.

#1 Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Calvin Kattar

Zabit Magomedsharipov might be the UFC's hottest prospect at 145lbs

Initially scheduled for last month’s ESPN show, this intriguing clash of Featherweights was moved here for undisclosed reasons and has now been bumped into the main event slot following the scrapping of the fight between Junior Dos Santos and Alexander Volkov. You’d find it hard to find any fans who would claim these two don’t deserve the spotlight, as they’ve both been on fantastic runs and have a combined UFC record of 9-1.

The greater hype in this fight has been on Zabit Magomedsharipov, he’s been pushed by the UFC and its announcers as a potential future champion since the day he entered into the promotion, but strangely enough there’s a fair argument to make that Kattar has beaten the tougher opposition. Zabit’s best win is Jeremy Stephens, and outside of that he’s only faced fringe contenders, admittedly through no fault of his own.

Kattar on the other hand has strong wins over Andre Fili, Shane Burgos and Ricardo Lamas, with a loss to the ultra-tricky Renato Moicano coming along the way too. ‘The Boston Finisher’ has been fighting for over a decade now, and at 31 years old, this is almost certainly his chance to break into the real elite of the division. But can he do it?

The issue for Kattar in my opinion is going to be with the well-rounded skills of Magomedsharipov, but also with the length of the Dagestani native. Kattar has proven himself to be a vicious striker, and if he gets an opponent hurt he’s more than capable of putting them away, as we saw when he stopped both Burgos and Lamas. But for as impressive as those wins were, it must be noted that both men have a boxing-heavy striking style, and that appeared to play into Kattar’s hands.

Sure, Kattar isn’t a short guy for 145lbs himself – he’s 5’11” and has a 72” reach – and he was actually giving up more reach to Burgos (75.5”) than he will be to Zabit (73”) this weekend, but when both fighters are boxing, unless one is at a serious reach disadvantage then head movement and footwork plays much more into what happens – and Burgos was willing to drop his hands all too often.

Zabit on the other hand is much more willing to throw kicks at an opponent – in fact, leg kicks were largely how he wore down Stephens early on in their fight – and with his strong wrestling and grappling game, he carries much more of a takedown threat than any of Kattar’s other recent opponents, save for Lamas who realistically is past his prime at this stage.

Essentially, Zabit has such high-level skills in all areas that he’s a difficult match for anyone in the division. His one weakness – a penchant for brawling at times – doesn’t even seem that bad when you consider that he also showed a pretty solid chin in his wild fight with Kyle Bochniak. Should he brawl with Kattar? Definitely not, ‘The Boston Finisher’ lives up to the nickname and can probably take anyone out, but then Kattar doesn’t tend to draw his opponents into brawls either.

At the end of the day, Kattar has never fought someone as well-rounded and skilled as Magomedsharipov despite his strong wins, and when you take into account that Moicano largely used his leg kicks, jabs and the threat of a takedown to work him over for three rounds – and this fight is also a three-rounder due to it being moved into the headlining slot on late notice – I just can’t see this one going any differently. I’m taking Zabit by lopsided decision.

The Pick: Magomedsharipov via unanimous decision

#2 Alexander Volkov vs. Greg Hardy

Greg Hardy is making a huge step up in competition this weekend when he faces Alexander Volkov

Former NFL player Greg Hardy is rare for a prospect in that UFC fans have been begging to see him thrown to the wolves practically since he made his full debut in the promotion in January. Usually most fans like to see prospects built slowly, but Hardy is so hated due to his controversial background involving domestic violence that the norm can basically be thrown out of the window when it comes to his treatment.

Realistically, the UFC were probably going to continue to build him slowly anyway; he’s fought four times in 2019 already, beating Dmitry Smoliakov, Juan Adams and Ben Sosoli in largely one-sided, but not massively impressive fashion after dropping his Octagon debut to Allen Crowder via disqualification.

The only reason we’re seeing him fight Alexander Volkov – a bonafide contender at Heavyweight who was inches away from a title shot in 2018 – is because he was willing to take the fight on short notice when Junior Dos Santos withdrew due to a leg injury. Quite why Hardy wanted to step in is anyone’s guess; does he believe in his skills that much? Or is he simply happy to do a favour for the UFC?

Either way, he essentially has a puncher’s chance here but little else. Usually at a massive size advantage in the Octagon, ‘The Prince of War’ is a genuinely tremendous athlete, and he hits pretty hard, although you’d have to say his knockout power has been somewhat overstated thus far into his UFC tenure.

Unfortunately, he’s also shown a bad penchant for running out of gas; he looked exhausted against Crowder midway through the first round, and tired out so badly against Sosoli that he needed to use an inhaler between rounds – something that was judged to be illegal and ended up costing him his victory. His ground game also looked severely lacking in that Crowder fight, although admittedly he may have improved since.

Volkov though will surely be a step too far for the former NFL man. ‘Drago’ will be the first opponent Hardy has faced to actually have a size advantage on him; the Russian stands at 6’7” and just about makes the 265lbs Heavyweight limit, and unlike the bulky Hardy, he’s actually svelte for a big man.

He’s also surprisingly fast, nimble on his feet, and he knows how to make the most of his massive size and reach, throwing long punches and kicks from a distance at his opponents to keep them at bay before looking to catch them on the end of something more powerful.

We haven’t seen all that much of Volkov on the ground in the UFC, but in his Bellator career he also showed plenty of skill there, being able to reverse positions and make the most of his length on the ground too; he submitted current UFC contender Blagoy Ivanov with a rear naked choke in 2014, for instance.

Is it worrying that he hasn’t fought since that frankly ridiculous knockout loss at the hands of Derrick Lewis just over a year ago? I guess so, but then it’s also notable that he’s now had plenty of time to recover, and outside of that KO – at the hands of one of the heaviest hitters in the game – he’s never been cleanly knocked out before and has recovered from some insane punishment in the past.

For me unless Hardy knocks him out in the first exchange of the fight – and given he couldn’t do that to Sosoli or Crowder, there’s no reason to suspect that’ll happen here – then this should comfortably be Volkov’s fight to lose. I suspect Hardy will try too hard to knock him out before running out of steam – and becoming easy pickings for ‘Drago’.

The Pick: Volkov via second round TKO

#3 Zelim Imadaev vs. Danny Roberts

Danny Roberts has his back to the wall after two straight losses

This could well be the last chance saloon for both fighters; Zelim Imadaev was brought into the UFC with some hype behind him following an unbeaten run on the Russian circuit, but ended up struggling in his debut against Max Griffin, particularly on the ground. England’s Roberts meanwhile has lost his last two fights, and most recently was KO’d in violent fashion by Michel Pereira.

The likelihood is that this fight should be decided by how Roberts looks to play things. Although he’s more of a striker than a grappler, ‘Hot Chocolate’ is no novice on the ground; he submitted Nathan Coy in his UFC debut and was also able to outwork the tricky David Zawada in a fight full of scrambles and grappling exchanges.

Given the fact that Imadaev struggled so much to prevent the takedown against Griffin – another man known more for his striking than his grappling skill – then it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Roberts could look to secure a takedown and perhaps hunt for a submission.

The problem though is that Roberts is almost a decade into his professional MMA career and he’s taken quite a lot of damage along the way, to the point where it’s probably fair to question his chin. Of his four UFC losses, three have come by knockout and all of them have been extremely violent finishes. Against Pereira in particular, the Brit simply didn’t look ready for the onslaught that his opponent threw at him, and was taken out in just under two minutes.

Imadaev might be lacking in the grappling department but he was able to bounce back to his feet on numerous occasion against Griffin, and if nothing else, he’s a concussive, violent striker who’s more than willing to throw flashy strikes at his opponent to get the job done. That’s worrying for Roberts, particularly when you consider that he tends to be a reactive fighter rather than one who pushes forward from the off.

This is a tricky fight to call as Imadaev’s ceiling may be far lower than the other fighters who’ve taken Roberts out, but in the end I just can’t trust the chin of ‘Hot Chocolate’ against a fighter who’s got 8 knockouts on his ledger.

The Pick: Imadaev via first round KO

#4 Anthony Rocco Martin vs. Ramazan Emeev

Anthony Rocco Martin has developed into a dangerous contender at 170lbs

It’s been a long time since we last saw Ramazan Emeev; the Dagestani is 3-0 in the UFC, but hasn’t fought in over a year due to a combination of injuries and Visa issues. A powerful striker, Emeev has an impressive record and hasn’t tasted defeat since 2014, but this is a pretty major step up in competition for him.

Anthony Rocco Martin was last seen in a tough loss to Demian Maia. ‘Rocco’ was unable to stop the master grappler in the first two rounds and then simply couldn’t do enough to finish the Brazilian in the third round. Outside of that though, he’s been perfect at 170lbs, defeating Jake Matthews with his powerful grappling game and using his striking to beat Sergio Moraes and Ryan Laflare.

Faced with a striker as powerful as Emeev, it’s likely that Martin will want to impose his will on the Dagestani by taking him to the ground, rather than standing and trading with him. ‘Gorets’ isn’t a total novice on the ground – he escaped some dangerous positions in his fight with Alberto Mina – but Martin is an extremely skilled grappler capable of taking out all but the best on the mat.

For me then this comes down to whether Martin can get Emeev to the ground. If he can then I suspect it’ll be his fight to lose, he’s very heavy from the top, is more than capable of catching dangerous chokes and other submissions, particularly power-based ones like the kimura, and his top control alone could easily wear Emeev out.

If he can’t do that? He’s definitely in danger as Emeev hits extremely hard, but then Martin has shown a seriously tough chin in his prior fights – he’s never been KOd and took some serious punishment from Matthews and Rashid Magomedov too – and it’s not like he’ll be at a size disadvantage despite Emeev dropping down to Welterweight from 185lbs, as Emeev is more stocky while Martin is longer and lankier. And Martin’s striking has improved immeasurably over his recent fights and he looked fantastic standing in that win over Laflare.

For me, Martin is the fighter with more ways to win this fight and so I’m taking him, while also acknowledging that Emeev definitely has a puncher’s chance. I’ll take Martin to wear out the Dagestani and take a decision.

The Pick: Martin via unanimous decision

#5 Shamil Gamzatov vs. Klidson Abreu

Shamil Gamzatov looks like a potentially dangerous man at 205lbs

I’m not quite sure how this Light-Heavyweight bout has made the main card; Shamil Gamzatov looks like a fascinating prospect at 13-0, but while Klidson Abreu picked up his first UFC win in July over Sam Alvey, he was comfortably beaten by Magomed Ankalaev back in February and Ankalaev is fighting on this show’s undercard against another hot prospect in Dalcha Lungiambula. At any rate, hopefully this fight will be more entertaining than the Ankalaev/Abreu tilt was.

That fight largely saw Ankalaev use his powerful wrestling game to grind Abreu down for a clear-cut decision, and in all honesty, I could easily see the same thing happening in this fight. Gamzatov’s highlight reel appears to show a super-aggressive striker who throws with serious power, but in actuality his background is more based upon his grappling game. Like many of his fellow Dagestani fighters, he’s an expert in Sambo and has as many submission wins (5) to his name as he does knockouts.

Abreu is also a grappler who’s more than willing to strike, but despite coming into the UFC with a strong record – 15-2 – ‘Urso Branco’ just isn’t a great athlete and that’s always likely to hold him back against bigger, more explosive fighters at 205lbs. Against Ankalaev, he simply had little answer to the Dagestani’s powerful takedowns, and he couldn’t really get his grappling game going from his back either.

Even his fight against Alvey wasn’t that impressive; it was classic Sam Alvey fare with ‘Smilin Sam’ looking for the counter right hook and failing to land it in a low-output striking match. There’s definitely the chance that the Brazilian could surprise Gamzatov in this one – Gamzatov is making his UFC debut after all – but based on what I’ve seen of him he’s too similar to Ankalaev for me not to pick him.

The Pick: Gamzatov via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Highly touted prospect Magomed Ankalaev returns to action this weekend

Strangely enough all of Saturday’s preliminary fights are set to be shown on the ESPN network, with the main card then moving to ESPN+. There’s actually a lot to like on the prelim card too, despite a lack of name value.

At the top of the card is a Light-Heavyweight clash between Magomed Ankalaev and Dalcha Lungiambula. Both of these fighters are high-level prospects; Ankalaev is 12-1 and 2-1 in the UFC, and would be undefeated had he not made a late mistake against Paul Craig, while Lungiambula looked dangerous and extremely powerful in his UFC debut in June. Lungiambula looks explosive enough to take any fighter out, but he relied a lot on his grappling in that win over Dequan Townsend, and I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that against a wrestler the calibre of Ankalaev. I think Ankalaev’s more rounded skills should pull him through here and he’ll win a relatively close decision.

At Welterweight, Rustam Khabilov faces off with Sergey Khandozhko in what will be Khabilov’s debut at 170lbs. It’s a surprising move given Khabilov has never looked like a huge 155lber, but assuming he doesn’t struggle with the move I think he can win this one. Khandozhko outpointed Rostem Akman in his UFC debut but Khabilov is far more experienced and his takedown is remarkably hard to stop. It might not be entertaining but I like Khabilov via decision here.

Karl Roberson returns to action at Middleweight to face newcomer Roman Kopylov, in what has been a long debut coming given the Russian signed with the UFC last year. A Sambo champion, Kopylov has become known for his dangerous striking during his MMA career, which makes this a very tricky fight to call given Roberson’s own background in kickboxing. I’m going to lean towards Kopylov due to his grappling background but this could go either way.

At Welterweight, David Zawada takes on Abubakar Nurmagomedov, the brother of current UFC Lightweight kingpin Khabib. Abubakar – who was involved in the infamous UFC 229 scuffle with Conor McGregor – doesn’t have the glitzy record of his brother but he’s a very dangerous fighter with a similar style. Zawada has shown himself to be a solid grappler thus far into his UFC career, but I don’t think he’ll have enough to fend off Nurmagomedov, who I’m picking to win by TKO.

At Bantamweight Pannie Kianzad faces Jessica-Rose Clark in the lone fight not to involve a Russian on this card. Interestingly this is a rematch from a 2015 fight that saw Kianzad win a decision. Clark has been fighting at Flyweight most recently but is moving back to Bantamweight for this one, but I’m not sure it’ll bring her success; Kianzad lacks natural athleticism but her takedowns will probably pull her through against a smaller opponent here to win a decision.

The UK’s Davey Grant returns at Bantamweight to face Grigorii Popov, who made his UFC debut earlier this year. Popov didn’t show a lot in his debut; he was violently stopped by veteran Eddie Wineland, but it’s hard to trust Grant given he hasn’t won a fight since 2016 and has spent a lot of time on the shelf. I’ll take Popov via decision.

At Lightweight Alexander Yakovlev faces Roosevelt Roberts. An intriguing prospect, Roberts lost a bit of his lustre when he was defeated by Vinc Pichel earlier in the year, but his lanky frame makes him a problem for most opponents, and I’m not sure Yakovlev has the ability to deal with his attacks. I like Roberts via TKO here.

Finally at Light-Heavyweight, Ed Herman is back, facing off with Khadis Ibragimov. Ibragimov lost his UFC debut, a late-notice fight in China back in August, but it’s nearly impossible to trust Herman at this stage; he’s been in the UFC for 13 years now and has taken insane amounts of punishment over his time. Ibragimov via KO is my pick.