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After making a successful debut on Fight Island this weekend, the UFC returns there for a third time on Saturday. We’ve still got UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige to look forward to this Wednesday, but the weekend’s show is probably better.
UFC Fight Night 172 will hopefully crown a new UFC Flyweight champion. But more than that, we’ve got at least two other fights on tap that could affect title pictures in the near future.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2.
#1 UFC World Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez
Due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it feels like a lot longer than just 20 weeks since these two men first squared off. They main-evented UFC Fight Night 169 in Norfolk, Virginia with the UFC Flyweight title on the line. And despite a tremendous fight, nothing ended up being settled.
Things largely went wrong prior to the fight, when Figueiredo missed the 125lbs Flyweight limit by 2.5lbs. That meant he was ineligible to win the title, and although the fight went ahead with Benavidez still being able to take the crown, things soon got worse.
‘Deus Da Guerra’ – the God of War – stopped Benavidez in violent fashion in the second round. But prior to the decisive blow, the two men had clashed heads. Benavidez clearly came off worse, with a bad cut to the forehead, and it’s probably fair to suggest that the knockout never would’ve happened without it.
Thankfully, the UFC have done the simple thing and just rematched the two here. However, nothing seems to be simple when it comes to the UFC Flyweight title. Last week it was announced that the fight was in jeopardy due to Figueiredo testing positive for COVID-19. Since then it’s been announced that the fight is still on.
Reportedly, the test was a false positive stemming from the Brazilian having COVID-19 earlier on during the pandemic. And as of the time of writing, it does appear that the fight will go ahead. But will Figueiredo be affected by his spell with the virus? Who knows.
The big question here is what kind of adjustments Benavidez can make from the first fight. It’s true that the clash of heads led directly to him being knocked out, but it wasn’t like he was winning the fight prior to that moment.
The issue that ‘The Beefcake’ appeared to be having was the fact that unlike the majority of his Flyweight opponents, Figueiredo was able to absorb his biggest punches with no problems.
Benavidez’s striking style has improved over the years, but he still tends to step into the pocket and firepower punches, hoping that he’ll connect with a bomb to knock his foe out before they can fire back with anything too heavy. And if he finds himself losing these striking exchanges, then he’s always got his strong wrestling, complete with a nasty choke game, to fall back on.
For the majority of his career – even against Henry Cejudo – it’s a plan that’s worked. However, that wasn’t the case at all with Figueiredo. His chin allowed him to fire back and connect with hard shots of his own, and he was also able to prevent the majority of Benavidez’s takedowns.
When ‘The Beefcake’ did get him down, the Brazilian showed that he’s no mug on the ground either. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Figueiredo instantly locked up an armbar that most fighters probably would’ve had to tap out to. Benavidez was able to escape, but the likelihood of him surviving a longer exchange on the ground didn’t look good.
Essentially then, the first fight showed that Benavidez is probably outgunned standing and also on the ground. So is there any path to victory for him?
Perhaps. I’d say his best bet would probably be to force a high pace and hope that Figueiredo – the bigger man who has to complete a heavy weight cut to make 125lbs – tires himself out. Can Benavidez pull that off? It’s possible. He’s a good enough scrambler on the ground to avoid a quick submission and he can definitely push the pace standing.
The problem is going to be that we’ve seen in the past – in his fights with Alexandre Pantoja and John Moraga – that Figueiredo’s punching power holds up into the third round at least. And with Benavidez’s wide-open style, it just raises the possibility that ‘Deus Da Guerra’ will land a bomb - and become the new UFC Flyweight champion.
Things could go wrong for Figueiredo if he misses weight, or if he has any lasting after-effects of COVID-19. Judging by their first fight, though, I’ve got to go with him here.
The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round KO
#2 UFC Middleweight Division: Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum
It’s probably fair to say that this Middleweight clash could easily have been the main event of a UFC Fight Night card this year, which makes it an excellent supporting fight.
Both men are coming off losses – Gastelum two, in fact – but prior to that they’d both been on stellar runs. It’s safe to say that the winner of this one will likely vault themselves right back into UFC title contention, so there’s big stakes here.
What makes it interesting is that it’s a clash pitting one of the bigger 185lbers on the roster against one of the smaller ones. Hermansson stands at 6’1” and has a monstrous reach of 77.5”. Gastelum, meanwhile, is built like a fireplug, standing at just 5’9” with a reach of 71.5”.
The issue for Gastelum is that Hermansson is very much a fighter who knows how to use that reach. He’s adept with his jab, likes to keep his opponent at distance, and if the distance closes, he’s also an excellent wrestler. On the ground, meanwhile, that reach comes into play again, as ‘The Joker’ can latch onto dangerous chokes such as guillotines, anaconda, and the D’Arce.
Thankfully for Gastelum, Hermansson does have some weaknesses. Despite a willingness to use his jab and be patient, ‘The Joker’ can get a little too wild at times with his striking. That opens him up to power strikes, and while his chin held up despite taking punishment from Jacare Souza at UFC Fight Night 150, that wasn’t the case in his last fight.
At UFC Fight Night 160, he essentially walked directly into a big shot from heavy hitter Jared Cannonier, and the fight was over shortly after. And that wasn’t the first time Hermansson had been stopped by strikes – Thiago Santos also managed it in 2017 at UFC Fight Night 119.
So can Gastelum recreate that gameplan? He’s definitely got the power in his hands, having knocked out the likes of Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping in his UFC career. He even had current champ Israel Adesanya in trouble at points in their fight at UFC 236, before ‘The Last Stylebender’ overwhelmed him later on.
The problem with that though is that he’s going to have to get inside Hermansson’s reach in order to land a bomb, and unless the Swede gets really reckless, that’ll be hard for him. Cannonier was able to knock him out, but Cannonier also has the same reach – Gastelum will be at a 6” disadvantage.
More to the point, if he does get inside and they end up in a clinch situation, I’d favor Hermansson there too. Gastelum is a fantastic wrestler, but at 185lbs he simply isn’t that physically powerful. Darren Till, for instance, outmuscled him in the clinch in their fight at UFC 244. And he was also unable to take Adesanya down despite a number of attempts.
Hermansson, meanwhile, is one of the more underrated wrestlers in the division and knows how to use his size in order to both land and avoid takedowns. It’s highly doubtful Gastelum will simply be able to muscle him around despite his superior wrestling experience.
With all of that in mind, I find it hard to envision a path to victory for Gastelum in this fight. He’s a great fighter with some great UFC wins at 185lbs, but the fact is that all of them came against stylistically good opponents for him. Bisping could no longer take a big shot. Jacare’s cardio means he can be worn out (as Hermansson did to him too) and Tim Kennedy hadn’t fought in over two years before stepping in with Gastelum at UFC 206.
The unfortunate truth in my opinion is that Gastelum would simply be better off following a better diet, losing some muscle mass, and moving back to 170lbs, where his wrestling would be more suitable and his size wouldn’t be such a disadvantage.
Against Hermansson, one of the biggest, rangiest 185lbers out there? I just can’t see any path to victory for him unless he can land a huge shot, which is possible, but it essentially gives him a puncher’s chance.
The Pick: Hermansson via unanimous decision
#3 UFC Lightweight Division: Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev
As a pointer to how quickly time passes, it doesn’t seem like over three years ago since Diakiese burst onto the scene. ‘The Bonecrusher’ reeled off three impressive wins to begin his UFC career, going 12-0 overall. With a rangy, hard-hitting striking style and incredible athletic ability, he looked like a star in the making.
Unfortunately, the Congo-born native of Britain then ran into some serious trouble. He lost three fights in a row, all in a different fashion, showing that he had plenty to learn.
Drakkar Klose outpointed him after hurting him with low kicks. Dan Hooker was able to catch him in a guillotine to tap him out. And Nasrat Haqparast simply walked through his range to land heavy shots on the inside.
Those losses knocked Diakiese way down the totem pole, but he has since rebounded. His wins over Joseph Duffy and Lando Vannata showed that he’s learned to use his range far more effectively in terms of his striking.
And while we still don’t know how effective his grappling is, we do know that his wrestling is pretty powerful – he slammed Klose in their fight and also took down Vannata on a couple of occasions.
His opponent this weekend, Fiziev – a native of Kyrgyzstan – has far less experience in the UFC and in MMA overall. ‘Ataman’ was knocked out violently in his UFC debut by Magomed Mustafaev, but he rebounded with a solid decision win over Alex White in October.
An aggressive striker, Fiziev looks to chain combinations together and displays little regard in terms of defense. He’s extremely quick, even for a Lightweight, but judging by what he’s shown in the UFC thus far, he’s also extremely hittable. He’s also notably shorter and less rangy than Diakiese.
The most likely thing Fiziev is going to try to do is wade in as Haqparast did and catch Diakiese with punishing strikes, but I think he’s going to find it hard. ‘The Bonecrusher’ is much improved since that fight and is now more adept at moving around the Octagon in order to catch an onrushing foe with big shots.
Add in a powerful takedown game and far more UFC experience, and to me, this looks like Diakiese’s fight to lose. The explanation could well be that the UFC still wants to push ‘The Bonecrusher’ as a potential star, and so he’s been handed a stylistically good fight on a main card in order to shine.
The Pick: Diakiese via first-round KO
#4 UFC Women’s Flyweight Division: Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina
Better known as ‘The Violence Queen’, Lipski brought quite the reputation with her upon her UFC arrival back in 2019. A native of Brazil who has trained with Cris Cyborg, Lipski had primarily been fighting in Poland’s KSW promotion before moving to the big time.
Since arriving though, she’s flattered to deceive. Her UFC debut saw her outworked by veteran Joanne Calderwood, while her second fight saw her fall to the scrappy Molly McCann.
Both fights followed a similar pattern: Lipski was able to land some clean strikes, but also took punishment due to her penchant for holding her chin too highly. And on the ground, she simply didn’t have an answer for a powerful top game.
Her win over Isabela de Padua saw her display some better skills on the ground, but only from the top position – and against a clearly overmatched opponent, too.
Carolina is a step up in competition from de Padua – she actually has a win over her earlier in her career. But is she as good as Calderwood or McCann? I’m not convinced. Her UFC debut win saw her out-point Priscila Cachoeira, but it wasn’t all that impressive.
The fight saw Cachoeira wade in constantly with strikes, and while she ate more than she connected with, she also had Carolina hurt on a number of occasions. Carolina did outwork her on the ground, which should be somewhat worrying for Lipski, but I suspect ‘The Violence Queen’ has such an advantage standing that it won’t matter all that much.
Overall, Lipski will need to be careful here, largely because if Carolina decides to spam takedowns and work her from the top position, there’s every chance she ends up being out-pointed. On the feet though, this looks like a tailor-made fight for Lipski and so I’m taking her to pick Carolina apart for a clear decision.
The Pick: Lipski via unanimous decision
#5 UFC Flyweight Division: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Askar Askarov
By anyone’s estimation, this is the second-most-important fight on the card. That’s because should anything happen to derail one of the main event fighters, Pantoja has been pegged as the man to step in to fight for the title.
Why is that? Because to be quite frank, ‘The Cannibal’ is one of the most dangerous fighters in the entire UFC Flyweight division.
A phenomenal grappler, Pantoja has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and can count 8 submission wins on his ledger. But he’s not just a submission artist. ‘The Cannibal’ has devastatingly heavy hands and has knocked out both Matt Schnell and former title challenger Wilson Reis during his UFC career.
His only losses in the UFC have come at the hands of Figueiredo and Dustin Ortiz, who out-pointed him in a somewhat controversial call in 2018. Essentially, you could throw him into the title fight with either Benavidez or Figueiredo, and he’d have a chance.
Askarov is less heralded, but he’s still dangerous. ‘The Bullet’ is 11-0, with the only blemish on his record being a draw last year in the UFC with the tough Brandon Moreno. A wrestler by trade, Askarov’s biggest strengths are his takedown and his ground-and-pound game.
We saw those skills unleashed on veteran Tim Elliott at UFC 246, as he outworked the former title challenger and had him in trouble on numerous occasions. The Russian is a more than willing striker, although he’s wild – and that gave him difficulties against Moreno, who hurt him badly on the feet.
Basically, this should be an interesting test for Pantoja, who is by far the superior fighter technically. If Askarov can push a hectic pace and force ‘The Cannibal’ into a wild fight with trades and plenty of scrambles, there’s a chance he could wear him out.
I don’t see that happening, though. Pantoja has a lot of experience, has fought better opponents, and has dealt with opponents looking to take the fight to him before. The most likely outcome I feel is that Askarov attempts to wade in with strikes, and gets caught with something cleaner. From there ‘The Cannibal’ will either finish him with strikes – or latch onto a submission on the ground.
The Pick: Pantoja via second-round submission
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
Seven preliminary fights will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service this weekend, making it a long night for UFC fans looking to watch the entire card.
At the top of the preliminary portion sits a likely brawl between two Light-Heavyweights. Khadis Ibragimov has thus far in his UFC career shown himself to be a fearless striker with a penchant for throwing bombs, although if his early rush can be avoided, he’s certainly beatable.
Opponent Roman Dolidze meanwhile appears to be a terrifying finisher both standing and on the ground. A UFC debutant, ‘The Caucasian Wolf’ also seems to be a much smoother striker, and a superior athlete to Ibragimov too. I like Dolidze to end this one early with a knockout.
In a Catchweight (150lbs) fight, Grant Dawson faces Nad Narimani. Dawson has impressed thus far into his UFC career with three wins, two of them coming by submission. Narimani meanwhile is a hard-nosed grappler who’s gone 2-1 in the UFC.
This one likely depends on whether Dawson can get Narimani out of his comfort zone by taking him down. If he can’t, then he might be in for a long night as Darrick Minner took the fight to him on the ground in his previous UFC outing before gassing out. I actually think Dawson is really good though, so I’m going to take him to win by submission.
At Lightweight, Joseph Duffy returns to face Joel Alvarez. This one probably depends on how much Duffy has left in the tank at the age of 32. He’s been out for a long time and has looked old in his last couple of fights in the UFC, but he’s still a very smooth, dangerous fighter in all areas. Alvarez is willing and tough but I’m not sure he has the technique to beat a guy like Duffy just yet. Duffy by decision is my pick.
In the Bantamweight division, Welsh grappler Brett Johns locks horns with Montel Jackson. Jackson is a pretty solid grappler himself, going 3-1 and picking up a win over the tricky Brian Kelleher with a D’Arce choke in 2018, but Johns is the more dynamic fighter in my opinion, and his two UFC losses were to Aljamain Sterling and Pedro Munhoz – two top 10 contenders. This might be a close fight with a lot of grappling exchanges, but I’m taking Johns to win by decision.
In a late-notice Flyweight clash, Malcolm Gordon takes on Amir Albazi in a clash of UFC newcomers. Given the very late notice for both men, the winner of this one will likely be the man who comes in in better shape and can make a cleaner weight cut. I’m going to take Gordon based on his experience in bigger shows, but who knows really.
At Lightweight, an intriguing clash sees Davi Ramos face Arman Tsarukyan. This should be fascinating as Tsarukyan has more potential, but equally, his strength appears to be his grappling, and Ramos is a genuinely world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Having said that, he does have a penchant for tiring, while Tsarukyan loves to scramble and push the pace. It’s a tight fight to call, but I like Tsarukyan via decision.
Finally at Heavyweight, Sergey Spivak faces Carlos Felipe. A solid grappler, Spivak has shown flashes of potential in the UFC, but the Moldovan has also struggled due to a lack of athleticism and size. At 235lbs, he could probably make Light-Heavyweight if he chose to. At 245lbs Felipe isn’t too much bigger, but he appears to be a better athlete who moves much faster. Thus, Felipe by knockout is my pick.
