UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Andrea Lee

Andrea Lee should have an athletic advantage over Roxanne Modafferi this wekeend

As we’ve seen recently – with Jennifer Maia beating Joanne Calderwood to steal away her title shot – the UFC Women’s Flyweight division is perhaps the most wide open in the promotion right now.

Champion Valentina Shevchenko – barring a Maia upset – is arguably the UFC’s most dominant champion, and she’s been highly active too, meaning a fighter can gain a title shot without having to put together a huge winning streak as such.

That means that despite both Lee and Modafferi coming off losses going into this fight, a big win for either could put them just one or two fights away from a crack at Shevchenko. It’s a solid fight with plenty on the line, but who takes it?

It’s pretty clear to anyone who’s followed the two women that Lee is the superior athlete. ‘KGB’ is a highly decorated Muay Thai kickboxer, with plenty of world and regional titles to her name. She’s also skilled on the ground, holding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt under Relson Gracie, and her cardio has always looked excellent in the UFC.

Lee has lost her last two fights, but both losses should come with an asterisk. UFC 242 saw her edged out by Joanne Calderwood in a fight that went to a split decision and could easily have gone either way. And more recently, she came out on the wrong end of another split decision, this time against Lauren Murphy at UFC 247.

That one was more controversial, as the majority of the MMA media outlets scored it in favour of ‘KGB’, who largely controlled Murphy both standing and when the fight hit the ground.

Of course, the decision would’ve been a moot point had Lee been able to put Murphy away, but that’s probably the lone knock on her. Of her 11 MMA wins, 5 have come by decision and she’s never finished an opponent in the UFC, even the overmatched Veronica Macedo.

Modafferi has also had struggles with finishing opponents. In her 41 professional fights, she’s seen the final buzzer 28 times. Overall she’s got 24 wins to her name – more than Lee has fights – so she’s definitely got the experience advantage in this fight.

However, where ‘The Happy Warrior’ has traditionally struggled has been with better athletes. She’s attempted to close that gap recently, embarking on a hardcore strength and conditioning training regime since her return to the UFC in 2017, and it’s definitely done some good.

She was able to outmuscle and defeat Barb Honchak, Antonina Shevchenko and Maycee Barber – although in the latter fight, Barber badly tore her ACL early on. And her striking has improved too, meaning she actually looks like a competent kickboxer these days.

‘The Happy Warrior’ is still more of a grappling-based fighter though, and overall that’s why I think she’ll struggle here with Lee. Her last fight – coincidentally also against Murphy – saw her perform decently standing, but Murphy completely outpowered her in the clinch and on the ground.

Lee is a massively superior striker than Modafferi, so unless ‘The Happy Warrior’ can put her on her back and work her over as she did to Shevchenko and Honchak, I suspect she’s going to be in trouble. Given Lee’s all-round skills and advantage in athleticism, I just can’t see how she can do that.

With that in mind, I suspect Modafferi’s veteran toughness – and Lee’s lack of finishing skills – will mean this fight goes the distance, but I’m backing ‘KGB’ to pick up her fourth UFC win.

The Pick: Lee via unanimous decision