UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill - Predictions and Picks

#5 UFC Featherweight Division: Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson

Billy Quarantillo's fight with Spike Carlyle was an instant classic

Based on their previous UFC fights, this Featherweight clash could be a surefire contender for a post-fight bonus award. Nelson is 1-2 in the UFC right now, but all three of his fights have seen violent finishes, while Quarantillo’s last appearance saw him put on an absolute war with the hyper-aggressive Spike Carlyle.

Prior to that, Quarantillo had finished 5 fights in a row. In fact, of his 14 victories, just 4 have gone the distance. A large, rangy 145lber, the Florida native is reckless to a fault, throwing wild strikes and when the fight hits the ground, constantly hunting for submissions.

We learned from the Carlyle fight that he’s insanely tough, too. ‘The Alpha Ginger’ almost put him away on numerous occasions, only for Quarantillo to somehow survive and fight right back, eventually forcing Carlyle to largely gas out and give up a decision.

The TUF veteran took plenty of damage on his feet, but was largely able to outgrapple Carlyle once the action began to slow down slightly in the later rounds. Interestingly too, Quarantillo didn't appear to be on the verge of being finished at any point.

Nelson has only gone the distance 5 times in 16 fights himself, so the likelihood of this one reaching the final buzzer – particularly in the UFC APEX’s small Octagon – seems low.

However, for all of his finishing skills – like Quarantillo, he’s stopped current UFC star Khama Worthy in the past – he also doesn’t appear to possess the durability that his opponent this weekend has. ‘The Monster’ was put away, for instance, by Carlos Diego Ferreira at UFC 231 via punches from half-guard, and he also struggled against the aggressive Matt Sayles on the ground before he was eventually submitted.

There is a chance that Nelson is the more potent offensive fighter and can take out Quarantillo early, but I’m just not convinced personally. If Carlyle’s blitzes of violence couldn’t do it, then I’m just not convinced the Canadian is capable either.

With that in mind, I think this will be a wild fight, but if Nelson can't finish Quarantillo then the likelihood is that he'll slow down. And if he does so, he'll be ripe pickings for Quarantillo to pick up his third UFC win in a row.

The Pick: Quarantillo via second-round TKO