UFC Predictions: UFC 271: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker 2

The world’s biggest MMA promotion heads to Houston, Texas this weekend for a major show in the form of UFC 271: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker 2.

UFC 271 features a huge main event with the middleweight title on the line, as well as a number of other intriguing bouts that are bound to deliver some great action.

So with plenty to both lose and gain inside the octagon this weekend, which fighters will rise and who will fall?

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 271: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker 2.

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#1. UFC middleweight title: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker

Robert Whittaker will need to make plenty of adjustments to avoid another defeat to Israel Adesanya this weekend

It seems far longer than just over two years since Israel Adesanya downed Robert Whittaker to claim the UFC middleweight title in Melbourne. Much of that has to do with the fact that, unlike many of the other champions on the roster, Adesanya has been extremely active since winning the title.

‘The Last Stylebender’ has made three successful defenses, beating Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. He also attempted to become a double champion, only to fall at the hands of then-UFC light heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz.

Whittaker, meanwhile, took plenty of time away following his defeat to Adesanya. However, since his return to the UFC in 2020, he’s beaten Darren Till, Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum.

There’s little debate that these are the best two 185lbers on the planet, so who will come out on top this time?

It’s probably fair to suggest that the fight should be closer than the initial meeting, that simply saw Adesanya use Whittaker’s aggression against him, countering wonderfully and landing enough clean strikes to knock ‘The Reaper’ out in the second round.

Whittaker surely knows this time that he can’t over-reach like that and he does seem to have shifted his fighting style somewhat, beating Till and Cannonier in particular with a more counter-based, point-fighting game.

However, despite those changes, it’s still hard to see him outright beating Adesanya on the feet. He isn’t as quick as the champion, isn’t quite as accurate and it’s likely that due to the damage he’s taken over the years, he isn’t quite as durable either.

So can ‘The Reaper’ win at all? Well, there is a clear gameplan for him to use, as Blachowicz defeated Adesanya by wearing on him in the clinch and then using takedowns to ground-and-pound his way to victory.

Can Whittaker copy that? The big question stands around his takedowns. Whittaker is an awesome defensive wrestler, but we’ve never really seen him shoot for double legs. More importantly, he lacks the size and strength advantage that Blachowicz enjoyed over Adesanya.

Overall, ‘The Reaper’ is good enough to make this competitive, but unless he finds that he can ground Adesanya consistently and hold him down, then it’s hard to see a path to victory for him against a faster and more accurate striker.

The Pick: Adesanya via fourth round KO

#2: UFC heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa

Tai Tuivasa has won his last four bouts in the octagon, all by knockout

While it’s unlikely that this heavyweight fight will win any awards for its technical nature, there’s every chance that it could produce a genuinely wild battle for as long as it lasts.

Not only are Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa among the heaviest hitters on the UFC’s roster, they’re also two of the more fun fighters to watch. Neither man knows how to back down and fight defensively, despite the fact that neither man actually possesses an iron chin.

Of the two, Lewis is obviously the more proven. ‘The Black Beast’ holds the UFC’s record for knockouts with a total of 13 to his name, including his most recent in December over Chris Daukaus.

He’s also picked up major wins over highly rated opponents, including knockouts of Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, as well as a decision win over current heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou.

Tuivasa, meanwhile, is riding a four-fight win streak, with all four victories coming via knockout. He’s defeated Andrei Arlovski, Stefan Struve, Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai. At the age of just 28, the Aussie is clearly still improving.

This one is tricky to pick due to the glass cannon nature of both men. Neither has proven to be the most durable fighter. Tuivasa was knocked out by Junior dos Santos, for instance, and was badly hurt by Hardy in their bout. Meanwhile, Lewis has suffered five TKO losses in the octagon over the years.

So will the winner simply be the man who lands the big shot first? It’s definitely possible. If that’s the case and they simply brawl until one goes down, the likely winner is Tuivasa. He’s slightly more durable than Lewis and seems to be slightly quicker, too.

However, there is an X-factor and that’s the fact that Lewis has somewhat underrated takedowns and absolutely devastating ground-and-pound. ‘Bam Bam’, meanwhile, has looked pretty poor on the ground when we’ve seen him there.

With that considered, then, if ‘The Black Beast’ can ground the Aussie, there’s definitely a good chance that he wins this fight handily. It could go either way, but Lewis via TKO is the pick.

The Pick: Lewis via second round TKO

#3. UFC 271: The Main Card

Jared Cannonier will hope to secure a middleweight title shot this weekend with a win over Derek Brunson

The biggest fight on the main card this weekend aside from the main and co-main events is a middleweight clash between Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier. Both of these men have been on excellent form and the winner may well fight for the UFC middleweight title in their next bout.

Brunson is perhaps the more complete fighter, as he’s a genuinely excellent wrestler and also possesses explosive power in his hands. However, ‘The Killa Gorilla’ might be the heaviest hitter in the division point blank. The way he switched the lights off on Jack Hermansson, for instance, was terrifying and he also hurt the tough Kelvin Gastelum badly in their fight.

Brunson can win this bout if he fights smartly and uses his speed to get inside, ground Cannonier and keep him there, but he’ll need to take risks to do so. Given Brunson’s penchant for over-reaching and becoming too aggressive, the pick is Cannonier via KO.

In a bantamweight bout, Kyler Phillips faces Marcelo Rojo. Phillips is coming off a loss to Raulian Paiva, but prior to that, he looked excellent in his three UFC wins, particularly his victory over Song Yadong. At his best, he’s an excellent striker and scrambler with cardio for days.

Rojo is far less proven and has lost two of his last three bouts, including his octagon debut against Charles Jourdain. He’s a finisher, with just one of his 16 wins going the distance, and that should make him dangerous here.

However, Phillips is far more proven at the top level. While he did show holes in his game in his last bout, he should win this one by decision.

Finally, veteran lightweight Bobby Green faces Nasrat Haqparast. Despite looking largely past his best over the last couple of years, Green rolled back the clock in November, producing his best performance in years to knock out Al Iaquinta.

Haqparast, meanwhile, was beaten by Dan Hooker in his last bout, but he’s still a hard hitter with a technical yet somewhat unorthodox striking style. He’s somewhat underrated on the ground, too.

This one should come down to which Green turns up. If ‘King’ can fight in an aggressive manner and use his boxing skills to back Haqparast up, there’s every chance he can outwork him to a decision. However, if he stands back, then there’s a chance that the German fighter does enough to edge it. The pick is Green, but it will likely be very close.

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#4: UFC 271: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa

Women's flyweight: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O’Neill

Flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell

Light heavyweight: William Knight vs. Maxim Grishin

Bantamweight: Leomana Martinez vs. Ronnie Lawrence

Lightweight: Renato Moicano vs. Alexander Hernandez

Light heavyweight: Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant

Middleweight: AJ Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun

Bantamweight: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Sergey Morozov

Welterweight: Jeremiah Wells vs. Mike Mathetha