UFC Predictions: UFC 273: Alexander Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie

This Saturday sees the UFC head to Jacksonville, Florida for the first time since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic for a major pay-per-view event.

UFC 273 features two title fights at the top of the card, as well as a genuinely huge welterweight bout between Khamzat Chimaev and Gilbert Burns underneath.

With plenty more than just gold on the line next weekend, which fighters will step up and who might struggle?

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 273: Alexander Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie.

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#1. UFC featherweight title: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chan Sung Jung

Can Alexander Volkanovski defend his UFC featherweight title successfully for the third time?

Initially, the UFC featherweight title bout on this card would’ve seen champion Alexander Volkanovski face off with old foe Max Holloway for a third time. With ‘Blessed’ shelved with an injury, former title challenger Chan Sung Jung has found himself with a huge – unexpected – opportunity.

So can ‘The Korean Zombie’ cause a major upset by dethroning the Australian champion, or will this be business as usual for Alexander 'The Great’?

One thing is probably for certain: despite the fact that Volkanovski’s overall record is far superior to his opponent’s this weekend, it’s simply impossible to count Jung out of any fight, even this one.

‘The Korean Zombie’ obviously got his nickname for a reason. He’s insanely tough, and despite taking a ton of damage over the years, his chin is still as solid as ever. He’s only ever been stopped on three occasions, once by an injury and twice by genuine Hail Mary strikes.

Outside of those, he’s shown himself to be capable of absorbing ludicrous amounts of damage with little issue. To write him off as an iron-chinned brawler would be a massive mistake, though.

Jung is also a highly-skilled technical striker and he’s more than capable of fighting behind a jab, chaining together combinations and using his footwork to avoid the bigger strikes of his opponent. He’s also a wildly underrated grappler who is adept at snatching up submissions from odd positions. He’s somewhat of an underrated wrestler, too.

However, in Volkanovski, he’ll be facing arguably the greatest featherweight of all time. Essentially, the champ has absolutely no weaknesses.

Not only was he able to stand with Holloway for basically 10 rounds, but he was also able to largely come out on top in that realm, firstly by using a series of debilitating leg kicks and then by chaining together some excellent combinations to tag the Hawaiian.

The Australian certainly isn’t just a striker, though. He’s also got phenomenal takedown defense and decent takedowns in his own right. On the ground, his striking skills are ruthless and as he showed against Brian Ortega, he’s nearly impossible to submit.

So can Jung find a way to win this bout at all? His best option would probably be to draw the Aussie into a brawl, but even then, Volkanovski is such a cerebral fighter that it’s unlikely that he’d be willing to take the bait.

Essentially, the champ is only likely to be dethroned by an absolute specialist in one single area. As Jung isn’t quite that fighter, it seems unlikely that he’ll come out on top. Whether Volkanovski can finish him is another thing, but it’d be a shock to see him lose his title here.

The Pick: Volkanovski via decision

#2. UFC bantamweight title: Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan

Can Aljamain Sterling find a way to defeat Petr Yan in their long-awaited rematch?

To say that this UFC rematch has been a long time coming would be an understatement. It seems like far more than just over a year has passed since Aljamain Sterling first won the bantamweight title from Petr Yan when the Russian was disqualified, but that’s probably because so much has happened since.

In the 13 months that have followed, the UFC has booked the rematch twice, only for it to fall apart on both occasions due to lingering injury issues for Sterling, while Yan also defeated Cory Sandhagen to claim a largely meaningless interim title.

Finally, they’re set to meet again So, will Sterling prove that he isn’t a paper champion by finding a way to win? Or will Yan simply run through him as many suspect to claim back the title he should probably never have lost?

There’s a good argument for both outcomes. In Yan’s favor, it’s probably fair to say that before he landed the illegal blow that ended the first bout, he was ahead on the scorecards.

‘No Mercy’ did struggle to get a handle on Sterling’s movement-based, kick-heavy style early on, but by the fourth round, he’d found his range and appeared to be beginning to pick ‘Funk Master’ apart.

However, it’s also correct to say that Sterling wasn’t doing as badly as some people have made out in that fight. A couple of adjustments, namely using slightly less erratic movements to set up his takedowns, may well have given him the edge.

So can he make those adjustments this time around? Essentially, it’s probably fair to say that he’s going to need to take Yan down if he wants to win. To do that, he’s probably going to have to put himself in harm’s way.

Sterling simply can’t chase around the octagon, throwing kicks in a manic fashion as he did the first time around to set up his takedowns. He’s much more likely to have to draw Yan in to do that and that risks him eating a huge power shot or vicious combination.

That, of course, is worrying. ‘Funk Master’ has been stunned and knocked out before, and Yan is probably the most ruthless striker in the division. However, given that his lone KO loss came when Marlon Moraes timed a shin strike to the head as he lunged for a takedown, it’d be unfair to write off his chin.

More to the point, Sterling seems more driven than ever to silence his critics here, while more than one observer has suggested that Yan may well be overlooking him given the success he had prior to his disqualification last year.

Yan should be the favorite here, but Sterling is that good of a grappler that all it might take for him to win is one successful takedown. If he gets it early, then ‘No Mercy’ might be toast.

The Pick: Sterling via first-round submission

#3. UFC welterweight bout: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gilbert Burns

Can Khamzat Chimaev successfully step up in competition again when he faces Gilbert Burns?

In a lot of respects, this fight could well be considered even better than the two title bouts on this UFC card. Not only is it the first real elite-level test for the UFC’s most hyped-up prospect in the form of Khamzat Chimaev, it also feels like one of those special fights where literally anything could happen.

Many UFC fans will probably expect Chimaev to run right through Gilbert Burns here. After all, ‘Borz’ hasn't failed to live up to expectations to date, smashing through all four of his octagon opponents without even eating a significant strike.

More to the point, the native of Chechnya made stepping up a level look scarily easy last year when he took out ranked UFC welterweight contender Li Jingliang with a first-round rear-naked choke. Essentially, Chimaev made ‘The Leech’ look like a rank amateur.

However, it’s safe to say that Burns is on a thoroughly different level to even Li. Not only did ‘Durinho’ fight for the welterweight title in 2021, but he’s also got wins over the likes of Tyron Woodley, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson.

Burns is a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist with excellent submission skills and strong takedowns. His striking has also come along leaps and bounds in recent years, to the point that he’s far more than just a power puncher now.

Despite this, though, there’s definitely an argument to suggest Chimaev is a bad match for him. Not only will ‘Borz’ likely have a huge size advantage over the former lightweight come fight time, but it also seems unlikely that the Brazilian will come close to outwrestling him.

Essentially then, Chimaev should be able to choose exactly where this fight takes place. If he decides to keep things standing, then there’s definitely the chance that one of his power shots turns out Burns’ lights just as he did to Gerald Meerschaert.

On the ground, while Burns is an excellent submission artist, he isn’t a renowned guard player. He’ll also be likely to have to deal with Chimaev’s ruthless ground-and-pound, as well as his own substantial submission skills.

Unless Chimaev turns out to be more hype than substance, which there’s nothing to suggest that’s the case, then it seems likely that he’ll use his wrestling to find some kind of way to come out on top here, probably in impressive fashion.

The Pick: Chimaev via second-round TKO

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#4. UFC 273: The Main Card

Picks in bold

Women's strawweight bout: Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres

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#5. UFC 273: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Women's bantamweight bout: Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington

Welterweight bout: Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks

Middleweight bout: Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd

Heavyweight bout: Marcin Tybura vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Welterweight bout: Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott

Heavyweight bout: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Jared Vanderaa

Bantamweight bout: Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos

Lightweight bout: Vinc Pichel vs. Mark Madsen

Women's strawweight bout: Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen

*Note: One preliminary bout is expected to be moved to the main card.