UFC Predictions: UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3

The UFC heads to New Orleans, Louisiana, for the first time in a decade next weekend. In the headliner, a legend is likely to hang up his gloves.

UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 will see the 'BMF' title on the line in the main event, with Poirier expected to retire afterwards.

Elsewhere, the card isn't that strong, but with a headline bout this cool, hopefully the event will still be a good one.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3.

---

#1. UFC BMF title: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

Next weekend's headliner will see the UFC's 'BMF' title on the line. While the title isn't legitimate as such, it has produced two stone-cold classic fights.

While the inaugural bout between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal wasn't anything special, the wild brawls between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, and then Gaethje and Max Holloway produced insanity and nasty knockouts, too.

Usually, it'd be worth discussing whether the MMA math of Holloway > Gaethje > Poirier might add up. However, that's worthless because 'Blessed' and 'The Diamond' have faced each other twice already.

We can probably discount the first clash, which happened way back in 2012, because Holloway was still wet-behind-the-ears and was easily submitted by a more experienced Poirier.

The second bout, which took place in 2019, might be more of an indicator of how this one might go.

A back-and-forth brawl, the fight saw Poirier roar ahead with his pressure-boxing game, forcing Holloway backwards and preventing him from really opening up with his combinations.

However, 'The Diamond' then tired midway through the third round, allowing Holloway to come back with those combinations, making the fight much closer.

Overall, though, the story of the fight was that while Holloway had the volume, Poirier hit harder, and that ability to hurt the Hawaiian won the day.

Can history repeat itself here? It's doubtful, and there are a couple of reasons for that.

Firstly, Poirier has already announced that he'll be retiring after this fight, and with a very small handful of exceptions, it's rare that any fighter goes out with a big win, especially against a high-end opponent like this.

Secondly, 'The Diamond' has already shown signs of slowing down in recent years, with the Gaethje knockout being a major red flag. Poirier just isn't as sharp as he once was - understandable after a long and violent career - and he's taken a lot of damage even in fights he's won recently.

Sure, Holloway didn't exactly look prime against Ilia Topuria, but it's quite clear now that 'El Matador' is a generational talent, and just months before that, 'Blessed' went into a shootout with Gaethje and came out standing - something few fighters have ever done.

To add to that, the Hawaiian has sharpened up his combinations substantially since that last Poirier fight, and he's much more adept at fighting at 155 pounds now, too.

The truth is that Holloway probably doesn't have all that many big fights left in his own right, but for now, he's fresher than Poirier, knows what 'The Diamond' can bring, and is definitely a lethal finisher.

All of that adds up to Poirier hanging up his gloves in New Orleans next weekend.

The Pick: Holloway via third-round TKO

---

#2. UFC middleweight bout: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Next week's co-headliner is a curious fight in that it pits two ranked middleweights against one another, but it also doesn't feel like a truly "big" fight per se.

That's probably because, despite his talents, Paulo Costa probably shouldn't be ranked at No.13 at this stage.

'Borrachinha' was once the fastest-rising star in the division, but that was back in 2019. Since losing his unbeaten record in a title fight with Israel Adesanya in 2020, the Brazilian has lost three of four fights and has pulled out of countless bouts, too.

Given his lone win came over Luke Rockhold, who retired directly afterwards, quite how Costa has remained in the top fifteen is a mystery of sorts.

At his best, 'Borrachinha' is a tremendous offensive fighter, though. A bullying striker in the vein of Alistair Overeem and also an underrated grappler, if he can force an opponent onto their back foot, they're usually in trouble.

Costa tends to wade in with heavy punches in combinations, and is also highly adept at crushing his foes from the clinch, too.

In terms of weaknesses, though, for a big guy, his durability isn't all that impressive. More recently, he's found it hard to hit the 185 pound mark, and his cardio at points has looked very bad, to the point where he's been sucking wind in the first round.

So can No. 14-ranked Roman Kopylov beat him, and potentially end his UFC career in the process?

It's an interesting question. The Russian has broken into the rankings largely thanks to his knockout win over Chris Curtis last year, but he's a solid fighter overall with big striking power.

After losing his first two visits to the octagon, Kopylov has won six of his next seven. Sure, he hasn't beaten anyone really notable outside of Curtis, but there's also no shame in his loss to the underrated Anthony Hernandez.

However, it's worth noting that he's never beaten a striker of the calibre of Costa outside of kickboxer Cesar Almeida.

That fight was a close split decision that saw Kopylov largely ground 'Cesinha' when he got in trouble on the feet - something that he isn't likely to be able to do to Costa.

Against Curtis, meanwhile, Kopylov was being outstruck once 'Action Man' worked his way around the jab, and the head kick that won the fight was a bit of a questionable stoppage.

Basically, then, this should come down to whether Kopylov can outwork Costa and tire him out, or whether 'Borrachinha' can get around the jab to punish the Russian with his own strikes, probably dispatching him in the process.

It's a tough one to pick, particularly because talent-wise, Costa is far superior to Kopylov. However, it's just hard to trust a fighter who has barely fought in the last five years and only has one win in that time span.

With that considered, the pick, albeit a risky one, is Kopylov.

The Pick: Kopylov via decision

---

#3. UFC 318: The Main Card

In a welterweight fight, Kevin Holland faces Daniel Rodriguez.

This will be Holland's third fight back at 170 pounds after returning there earlier this year, and he's already beaten Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque. Now ranked at No.14, he remains the same 'Trailblazer', lacking quality wrestling skills but shining basically everywhere else with some lethal finishing skills.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, parlayed a four-fight win streak between 2021 and 2022 to climb into the top fifteen. However, three straight losses knocked him right back out.

'D-Rod' has now won his last two, though, so can he take out Holland? In all honesty, it seems doubtful. Not only has Rodriguez struggled with lanky finishers like Holland before in Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny, but he doesn't really have the strong wrestling to ground 'The Trailblazer' and keep him there.

Therefore, the pick here is Holland via second-round submission.

In a featherweight bout, Dan Ige faces Patricio Pitbull. This will be former Bellator champ Pitbull's second chance in the octagon after he looked very flat in his debut against Yair Rodriguez.

If the Brazilian still has something left in the tank, he ought to be able to beat Ige, who is a tough brawler, but isn't technically as good as Pitbull.

To add to this, most of Ige's successes have come in brawls with less durable fighters, and Pitbull is much more of a Lerone Murphy or Josh Emmett than Sean Woodson or Damon Jackson. The pick, therefore, is Pitbull via decision.

Finally, Michael Johnson takes on Daniel Zellhuber in a lightweight bout.

Johnson is a very surprising case. To see him still competing in the octagon after 15 years is a huge surprise, and he's actually won his last two fights, too.

'The Menace' remains an explosive athlete who can crack, but he still has two big weaknesses. His durability is no longer all that, and he's also open to being caught in flash submissions, seemingly because he has a tendency to switch off.

Mexican brawler Zellhuber is less proven than Johnson, but he can definitely throw down in violent fashion, and he's claimed $50k bonuses in his last two fights.

Essentially, Johnson is likely to enjoy a speed advantage here, but exchanging with 'Golden Boy' could be a major risk. His chin has deteriorated, and Zellhuber is definitely capable of taking him out.

Expect a wild fight here, but the pick is Zellhuber via third-round TKO.

---

#4. UFC 318: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC bantamweight bout: Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira

UFC middleweight bout: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen

UFC welterweight bout: Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

UFC middleweight bout: Robert Valentin vs. Ateba Abega Gautier

UFC welterweight bout: Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

UFC heavyweight bout: Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski

UFC middleweight bout: Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

UFC flyweight bout: Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari