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The UFC heads to Brazil next weekend for the first time in 2025. This will be the first event to take place in Rio de Janeiro since May 2024, and the first Fight Night there since 2015.
UFC Fight Night: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot features a relatively late-notice headliner, and a solid card with plenty of Brazilian talent.
With a crowd likely to be molten, this event should be worth checking out.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot.
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#1. UFC lightweight bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
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Initially, Rio would've been treated to a headline fight of former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on striking sensation Rafael Fiziev.
However, with 'Ataman' out with an injury, Poland's Mateusz Gamrot has stepped in, looking for what would arguably be the biggest win of his career.
So, can 'Gamer' pull this off on relatively short notice? Or will 'do Bronx' send his Brazilian fans home happy with a big win?
It might be fair to say that, after a solid 15 years in the UFC, Oliveira is probably slowing down a little. He's still not old, per say, at the age of 35, but he's taken a ludicrous amount of damage over the years.
His last fight saw him stopped violently at the hands of Ilia Topuria, and while 'El Matador' has been stopping everyone in that way, Oliveira was also badly hurt by the likes of Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and Islam Makhachev.
So how good is Gamrot, exactly? The Polish fighter has largely been a victim of a lack of charisma thus far, as he's proven himself to be a truly excellent fighter who just hasn't had the chance to knock off a big name yet.
Gamrot defeated Arman Tsarukyan – something nobody else save for Makhachev has been able to do – and has also beaten big names like Rafael dos Anjos and Jalin Turner.
'Gamer' isn't the best finisher at the elite level, as – ignoring an injury suffered by Fiziev in their bout – he hasn't stopped an opponent since 2021. However, he doesn't have many weaknesses at all really.
Where he might run into danger here is that Oliveira is so offensively lethal that it's risky attempting to grind him down, which would appear to be Gamrot's only path to victory.
Essentially, if 'Gamer' looks to blanket 'do Bronx', he's probably going to be submitted, and if he tries to pick him apart standing, it's likely he gets caught with something nasty, particularly as Oliveira has a reach advantage.
Put simply, Gamrot just isn't as good a striker as Topuria, nor is he quite as savvy on the mat as Tsarukyan, and even he nearly got submitted.
Oliveira might be less durable than he once was, but he's still probably the most dangerous finisher in lightweight history – and the record books would agree, with his 20 finishes being a UFC record.
Overall then, Gamrot has a puncher's chance – particularly if he comes in recklessly due to the late notice – but it's hard to imagine him not being outgunned by a more potent offensive fighter. He's never been finished, but that might change here.
The Pick: Oliveira via second-round submission
#2. UFC bantamweight bout: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
Next weekend's co-headliner is a classic bout between an ageing veteran and a fast-rising prospect looking to really make his mark as a title contender.
The former flyweight champion, Deiveson Figueiredo moved to 135 pounds in 2023 and made an instant impact. His wins over Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt and Marlon Vera suggested he could be a dark horse contender, in fact.
Since then, though, it hasn't gone so well for 'Deus da Guerra'. He was well beaten by Petr Yan, not that there was any shame in that, but his last bout saw him have his knee injured by Cory Sandhagen.
Given that fight only took place in May, quite how strong that injured knee is going to be in this fight is anyone's guess.
Montel Jackson, meanwhile, probably should've cracked the top 15 already given his lengthy winning streak of six fights dating back to 2021.
'Quik' has largely beaten overmatched foes, but his 18-second knockout of the underrated Da'Mon Blackshear showed that his ceiling is potentially a high one.
Jackson's best attribute is definitely his speed. Rapid even for a bantamweight, 'Quik' lives up to his moniker by firing off combinations, usually before his foe can touch him.
In fact, Jackson currently absorbs the fewest significant strikes per minute of any active bantamweight (1.35) and holds a significant strike defense rate of 62.1%.
In his most recent fight, meanwhile, 'Quik' also used takedowns to his advantage, controlling Daniel Marcos from the top in both the first and third rounds as well as outlanding him.
It's highly unlikely that Jackson will enjoy any success in that area against Figueiredo. While the former flyweight king is not the best wrestler in the division, he's top-class on the ground, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him look to take 'Quik' down.
After all, Jackson's only two losses in the octagon – to Ricky Simon and Brett Johns – saw him firmly outgrappled.
Where Figueiredo may have some issues is if his knee still isn't right. If that's the case, whether he can take Jackson down, or even get close enough to grab him, is debatable.
It's worth remembering, of course, that 'Deus da Guerra' packs brutal power of his own. He decked Vera in their fight, something most fighters have found impossible, and holds nine wins via TKO.
Jackson has never been knocked out, so whether Figueiredo could put him down is a question mark. However, if the Brazilian could hurt him, then it'd definitely make him think twice about looking to land combinations.
Overall, this one is tricky to pick, primarily because there are genuine questions around Figueiredo's fitness and how much he has left in the tank.
Given that he hung with Yan for five rounds, though, this might be a step too far for Jackson, for now at least.
The Pick: Figueiredo via decision
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a fun-sounding welterweight bout, Vicente Luque takes on Joel Alvarez. Initially, Luque was meant to face Santiago Ponzinibbio here, but 'Gente Boa' pulled out with an injury. This means Alvarez has taken the fight on about two weeks' notice.
It's a huge risk for 'El Fenomeno', who is on quite the run, winning seven of his last eight and finishing them all too. Moreover, he's also moving up to 170 pounds for the first time, probably a good move given he's missed weight at 155 pounds twice before.
However, this could be a good fight for him. Luque was once one of the most feared welterweights in the promotion, but he's past his prime now, and has lost four of his last six.
Alvarez will have to be careful as Luque remains a lethal finisher, but with 'The Silent Assassin' being less durable now, 'El Fenomeno' will be hopeful of catching him. The pick is Alvarez via TKO.
In a heavyweight clash, Jhonata Diniz faces Mario Pinto. This is likely to either be an entertaining slugfest, or a sloppy brawl that goes the distance, as is the norm with unranked heavyweights.
Diniz is the more proven of the two, as he's won three of his four UFC outings. The Brazilian is a solid striker who can chain combinations together, but the 34-year-old was also stopped by Marcin Tybura and gassed out badly in his most recent fight.
Meanwhile, Pinto is 10-0 and knocked out Austen Lane, but also got outworked in the first round of that fight, bringing into question his level. Overall, this could go either way, but the pick is Diniz via decision.
At featherweight, Ricardo Ramos takes on Kaan Ofli. Both of these men could well be fighting for their octagon futures. Ramos, who has been around since 2017, has lost three of his last four, while Ofli has lost both of his bouts in the promotion.
'Ghenghis' is a dangerous finisher, but the truth is that he's never beaten anyone at the top level before. Ramos, meanwhile, has left himself open in some of his recent fights, but he does have some solid wins to his name over the years. Given this, the pick is Ramos via decision.
Finally, also at featherweight, Lucas Almeida faces Michael Aswell. Both of these men are coming off losses, Aswell in his octagon debut and Almeida to Danny Silva in March.
Despite that loss for Almeida, he should probably be favored here. He's shown vicious finishing power in his strikes in his earlier bouts, while Aswell didn't exactly shine in his debut. The pick, then, is Almeida via TKO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC flyweight bout: Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter
UFC heavyweight bout: Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen
UFC bantamweight bout: Beatriz Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva
UFC flyweight bout: Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll
UFC heavyweight bout: Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman
UFC strawweight bout: Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC bantamweight bout: Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira
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