UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze

#2. UFC welterweight division: Kevin Lee vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Kevin Lee is moving back to welterweight this weekend for the first time since 2019

To say that this is a huge fight for Kevin Lee would be an understatement. ‘The Motown Phenom’ has not fought since his March 2020 loss to Charles Oliveira – the main event of the UFC’s first behind-closed-doors show, to give a little perspective – and has not fought up at 170 lbs since 2019.

Initially, Lee was pegged to fight unbeaten prospect Sean Brady in what felt like a bit of classic UFC matchmaking – an attempt by the promotion to have a high-level prospect gain some name value by beating a former headliner.

However, in Daniel Rodriguez, Lee is faced with a slightly lesser opponent, albeit one who may be equally as dangerous.

‘D-Rod’ has been on the UFC roster since February 2020, and in that time – essentially the period Lee has been on the shelf – he’s gone 5-1 in the octagon, picking up big wins over Mike Perry and Tim Means.

Rodriguez has shown well-rounded skill, and even his lone loss - to Nicolas Dalby - was a close fight to call. For the most part, ‘D-Rod’ is an aggressive striker who loves to push the pace and force his opponents backward.

So can he do that to Lee? In all honesty, it depends on how Lee shows up after such a long time away from the UFC.

KEVIN LEE STARCHED GREGOR GILLESPIE WITH A HEAD KICK 🤯 #UFC244 pic.twitter.com/nkzrgA6XK6

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) November 3, 2019

‘The Motown Phenom’ is still only 28 years old, but he’s been in his fair share of wars inside the octagon. Given that he’s now been on the UFC roster for over seven years, there’s every chance we’ve seen the best of him.

However, aside from a tight clash with Al Iaquinta in 2018, it’s also fair to say that he’s never recently been beaten by a striker. Instead, he’s found things tricky against fighters capable of turning the tables on him in grappling sequences.

Is Rodriguez capable of that? It seems doubtful based on what we’ve seen of him, and worryingly, while his takedown defense stands at 83%, he was also taken down twice by Mike Perry – a fighter with a wrestling game that doesn’t come close to Lee’s.

"That's why you got the best of D-Rod today." ☀️ Daniel Rodriguez summed it up after a dominant win at #UFCVegas23. pic.twitter.com/chOuALS96Q

— UFC (@ufc) April 11, 2021

Rodriguez can definitely win this fight if Lee comes in flat or looking rusty, but based on what we’ve seen of both men, it’s impossible not to favor ‘The Motown Phenom.’

The Pick: Lee via second round submission