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This weekend sees the latest UFC Fight Night event take place at the Las Vegas APEX Center and the headline bout is a big one.
This UFC Fight Night is set to be headlined by a catchweight fight between lightweight stars Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green. There can be no doubt that the stakes are high.
The rest of the card is lacking in name value somewhat, but with a main event that looks as good as this one, that really doesn’t matter. The best everyone can hope for is some exciting action.
On that note, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green.
#1. UFC catchweight bout: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Initially, this show would’ve been headlined by a major lightweight tilt pitting Islam Makhachev against Beneil Dariush. With both men currently ranked in the top five, this fight would’ve had major UFC title implications.
However, last week saw Dariush forced out with an injury. As a result, Bobby Green has stepped in on just ten days’ notice, forcing the UFC to switch the fight to 160 lb catchweight.
Does it make it much lesser of a fight? Not really. The truth is that this will still probably be the last stop on Makhachev’s ride to a title shot. If he beats ‘King’ impressively, it’ll be difficult for the promotion not to pit him against the winner of the upcoming Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje UFC lightweight title bout.
Can the native of Dagestan pull off the win? With all things considered, it’s probably difficult not to make him the big favorite here. To be fair, on paper at least, Green may be a tricky match for Makhachev. A solid high school wrestler with serious athletic skills, ‘King’ has been fighting in the octagon for just under a decade now.
During that period, he has beaten some excellent fighters, including the likes of Josh Thomson, James Krause, Lando Vannata and Al Iaquinta.
Despite his wrestling background, Green is primarily a boxing-based striker these days. He prefers to use his slick head movement and shoulder rolls to avoid the strikes of his opponents, and return fire with sharp combinations of his own.
The issue ‘King’ has had during his tenure with the promotion is that often, he isn’t active enough in fights to secure the points he needs to clearly win in the eyes of judges. It should come as no surprise, then, that of his 18 octagon bouts, 14 have gone the distance – with Green losing six of them.
In this fight, it’s likely Green will look to cause Makhachev problems by keeping this fight on the feet and looking to out-slick his opponent. Makhachev tends to be a little wilder standing than he needs to be.
The problem with that game plan, of course, is that Makhachev is perhaps the division’s most powerful wrestler right now. He has never had a problem taking any of his opponents down, even other strong wrestlers like Nik Lentz and Chris Wade.
Add in the fact that Green is taking this bout on late notice, it’s difficult to imagine that ‘King’ can possibly be prepared for what Makhachev has to offer. Sure, Green hasn’t been submitted since 2009, but Thiago Moises looked like one of the best grapplers in the entire division, and Makhachev dummied him on the ground.
It wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see this one go the distance, but either way, the pick is Makhachev.
The Pick: Makhachev via second-round submission.
#2. UFC middleweight division: Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Like the main event of this show, this co-headline bout has also been changed on relatively late notice. Initially, it would’ve seen Misha Cirkunov taking on Makhmud Muradov in a middleweight tilt. However, with Muradov out of action, Wellington Turman has stepped in with around a month’s notice.
Does that change the likely outcome? Perhaps. If nothing else, it feels like a more simple match for Cirkunov, who may well have been outgunned by the explosive striking of Muradov. So, can he beat Turman instead?
It’s difficult to say, given Cirkunov’s up-and-down career in the UFC. In 2016, he looked like possibly the hottest prospect in the light heavyweight division. He quickly destroyed the likes of Nikita Krylov and Ion Cutelaba with his brutal grappling style and heavy hands.
However, when faced with hard-hitting strikers like Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, the Latvian-Canadian basically wilted. That suggests that his chin simply wasn’t up to reaching the top of the division.
Following another KO loss – this time against Ryan Spann – Cirkunov dropped to 185 lb in late 2021. However, he suffered a decision loss to Krzysztof Jokto in a disappointing showing. Sure, Cirkunov’s chin didn’t fail him, but he definitely didn’t seem quite as powerful as he did at 205 lb. Eventually, he gave up enough takedowns to lose the bout.
Turman, though, looks like a more favorable opponent. A grappler and grinder by trade, he has found things hard going in the octagon against better athletes. Moreover, he has never looked like a quick or explosive fighter like the men who have defeated Cirkunov before.
This time, Cirkunov should be more comfortable with the cut to 185 lb. So it’s easy to imagine he won’t be outpowered by Turman in the way he was by the underrated Jotko.
It feels unlikely Cirkunov will be able to submit Turman, given the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu skills. However, there’s definitely a chance he can outpower him enough to pound him out on the ground, instead. The pick, therefore, is the Latvian-Canadian.
The Pick: Cirkunov via third-round TKO.
#3. UFC Fight Night: The main card
In a flyweight bout, Ji Yeon Kim faces Priscila Cachoeira. In a sign of the overall weakness of this card, both women are coming off losses, and have an overall UFC record of 5-8. The likelihood of either challenging Valentina Shevchenko any time soon appears slim.
Cachoeira, though, at least looks like a dangerous athlete who hits pretty hard. Sure, she has been overwhelmed on the ground before, but Kim doesn’t seem capable of doing that, even if she would likely not succumb to strikes easily. The pick here is Cachoeira via decision.
In a fascinating lightweight tilt, Arman Tsarukyan takes on Joel Alvarez. Tsarukyan has just one loss to his name – a decision against Islam Makhachev. Outside of that, he has beaten four foes in the octagon, outgrappling three of them before stopping Christos Giagos with strikes.
Alvarez also looks like a red-hot prospect, having stopped four straight opponents in his own right, making this one very tricky to pick. There could well be a chance for the winner to break into the lightweight rankings. However, overall, Tsarukyan’s grappling might give him the advantage, allowing him to take a decision.
Finally, Armen Petrosyan faces Gregory Rodrigues in a middleweight clash. Petrosyan has emerged from Dana White’s Contender Series, and looks like a dangerous striker. Meanwhile, Rodrigues also shone in his last octagon visit, a knockout of the tough Jun Yong Park.
This one is another tricky one to pick, and it could be exciting, too – but Rodrigues’ experience might see him win. The pick here is ‘Robocop’ via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight bout: Zhu Rong vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
UFC lightweight bout: Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam
UFC strawweight bout: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Hannah Goldy
UFC bantamweight bout: Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez
UFC welterweight bout: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Micheal Gillmore
UFC flyweight bout: Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez
UFC featherweight bout: Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual.
