UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang

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The UFC visits Shanghai next weekend for a Fight Night event. Somewhat surprisingly, this card features two pretty huge fights.

UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang features a big light-heavyweight headliner, as well as a major battle at featherweight too.

Overall, then, this one will be well worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang.

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#1. UFC light-heavyweight bout: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang

While he's never quite been able to live up to the hype that his first three octagon wins suggested, Brazilian wildman Johnny Walker is still one of the best fighters to watch in the 205-pound division.

In a total of 14 octagon bouts, Walker has gone the distance just twice. Essentially, he's the ultimate kill-or-be-killed fighter, making him a must-watch attraction.

With his last two fights ending in knockout defeats, though, and his last win coming in May 2023 - Walker's back will be against the wall here.

So can he defeat hot prospect Mingyang Zhang, or will the Chinese favourite keep on rolling?

It's fair to see why fans are excited by 'The Mountain Tiger'. Unbeaten since 2019, he carries a record of 19-6, and has never been the distance in any of his wins.

Since arriving in the UFC, he's looked utterly ruthless. He dispatched his first two opponents violently, and most recently retired Anthony Smith, battering 'Lionheart' into defeat with elbows on the ground.

Zhang has every physical tool it takes to succeed on this level. He's a big 205-pounder, can clearly grapple as well as strike, and packs huge power into his shots. Most notably, his ground-and-pound has proven to be absolutely savage.

Realistically, then, this fight is winnable for him. Walker's chin has been cracked on multiple occasions before, and given his last two defeats, it could be utterly gone at this point.

To win, 'The Mountain Tiger' probably needs to do two things. Firstly, he'll need to avoid the inevitable early rush and not allow Walker to drag him into a firefight in the opening minutes.

Secondly, he'll need to find a way to combat Walker's freakish 82in reach, with the Brazilian enjoying a sizeable advantage in that area.

If this fight were taking place four years ago, it probably would've been easy to pick Walker. Zhang has never faced a foe on his level before, with Smith being shot at the time of their bout.

However, Walker has been looking just as shot as 'Lionheart' recently, and in front of his home crowd, if Zhang gets the Brazilian hurt, it's easy to imagine him being utterly relentless in search of a nasty finish.

With that considered, 'The Mountain Tiger' is the pick.

The Pick: Zhang via first round TKO

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#2. UFC featherweight bout: Aljamain Sterling vs. Brian Ortega

In all honesty, given the skill level, history and place in the rankings, it's arguable that this featherweight bout between Aljamain Sterling and Brian Ortega deserved headline status here.

The likely reason that isn't the case is that Mingyang Zhang will be the big Chinese favorite, but it's still unfortunate that this fight won't take place over five rounds.

With Ortega ranked at No.4 and Sterling at No.7, then, the winner of this one could well move directly into title contention. So will 'T-City' pull off the win or will 'The Funk Master' outfox him?

Naturally, Ortega's history at 145 pounds is a little more extensive. After a bit of a false start thanks to a positive drug test back in 2014, 'T-City' climbed to the top of the division, beating the likes of Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson en route to a title shot.

Unfortunately, he took a beating at the hands of Max Holloway and since then, his story has been one filled with bad luck and inconsistency.

That fight took place in December 2018, and since then, Ortega's only fought five times, winning twice and losing three.

The high point was probably a razor-close fight with Alexander Volkanovski in a losing effort, but his last bout - a loss to Diego Lopes - saw 'T-City' look rusty.

Given he's 34 and has been fighting since 2010, then, questioning how much he might have left in the tank is probably fair.

Sterling, of course, had his biggest successes at 135 pounds. Given his title win and victories over Cory Sandhagen, Petr Yan, TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo, it's very arguable that he's the best bantamweight in UFC history.

His title loss in 2023, though, as well as the rise of his teammate Merab Dvalishvili, was enough to shunt him to 145 pounds, and while he's only gone 1-1 since, he's done well.

A victory over Calvin Kattar was a solid start, but it was actually his loss to the unbeaten Movsar Evloev that suggested he could be a major contender at featherweight.

The bout saw 'The Funk Master' land more significant strikes, complete more takedowns and also have more control time. Many fans felt that it should've been scored in his favor, in fact.

There's little question that Sterling is the better wrestler in this fight, and that Ortega probably won't mind being taken down, given his dangerous guard.

The big question here, then, is whether Sterling can control Ortega on the ground without falling prey to his dangerous submission game.

On the feet, the fight is likely to be pretty even. 'T-City' has improved his boxing over the years, most notably showing this in a win over Chan Sung Jung. However, Sterling will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage here, and his underrated striking will probably cancel Ortega's out.

On the ground, then, we should probably expect plenty of control for Sterling. As long as 'The Funk Master' doesn't take any silly risks, realistically, can Ortega catch him in something nasty?

It feels unlikely. Sterling is probably the best grappler he's ever faced in MMA, and he's also never been submitted. Given that wrestling advantage, therefore, this one should be Sterling's to lose.

The Pick: Sterling via decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a heavyweight bout, Sergei Pavlovich faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta. This is a big step up for the latter, who to be fair, is riding a five-fight win streak.

The only issue for him here, though, is that if Pavlovich is at his best, he's painfully outgunned. The Russian is bigger, stronger and harder hitting than 'Salsa Boy', and he's probably quicker too.

While it's true that Pavlovich's last win - a dull one over Jairzinho Rozenstruik - was a little plodding, it did at least stop the rot following two losses in a row. If the Russian has his mojo back properly, then, this shouldn't be an issue for him. The pick is Pavlovich via KO.

In a flyweight bout, Su Mudaerji faces Kevin Borjas. 'The Tibetan Eagle' will no doubt be a favorite in his home country, but whether he can win this fight or not probably depends more on Borjas than him.

Mudaerji has now been around for a long period, dating back to his octagon debut in 2018. His 4-4 record is a dead giveaway that he has a clear ceiling and tends to lose to his better opponents, while beating his lesser ones, usually in entertaining fashion.

Borjas is a tough one to get a handle on, he did beat solid prospect Ronaldo Rodriguez in March, but prior to that, he'd lost two in a row, including a bad KO loss to Alessandro Costa. With that considered, expect this to be a shootout ending in favor of 'The Tibetan Eagle'. The pick is Mudaerji via KO.

Finally, at welterweight, Kiefer Crosbie faces Taiyilake Nueraji. A member of Ireland's famed SBG gym, Crosbie came into the UFC with a reputation as a strong striker, but was outclassed on the mat and submitted in both of his fights.

Nueraji, on the other hand, has not fought in the octagon yet but has a strong record of 11-1, and comes into this fight on the back of five straight wins.

The level of competition that the Chinese fighter has faced is questionable, therefore this is a hard fight to pick. However, Crosbie's limitations on the ground remain a big concern, so the pick is Nueraji via submission.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout:

vs. Gauge Young

UFC flyweight bout: Loneer Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson

UFC lightweight bout: Rong Zhu vs. Austin Hubbard

UFC middleweight bout: Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

UFC featherweight bout: Yi Zha vs. Westin Wilson

UFC bantamweight bout: Xiao Long vs. You Su-Yung

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Uran Satybaldiev vs. Diyar Nurgozhay