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After three shows on Abu Dhabi’s Fight Island and a week off, the UFC returns this weekend with a pretty strong-looking card.
UFC Vegas 18 sees Heavyweights Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov clash in the main event, while the co-main features Bantamweight stars Frankie Edgar and Cory Sandhagen.
Overall, this should be a fun return for the UFC to its Las Vegas base and is definitely a show worth watching.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov.
#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov
The stakes are high in this main event clash. Depending on the result of the upcoming Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis fight – and Jon Jones's future – there’s a chance that the winner could receive a shot at the UFC Heavyweight title.
For Overeem, that would represent a fairytale end to his career. The Dutchman, who turns 41 this year, has openly stated that he’d like one more run at the UFC Heavyweight title before he retires. After all, UFC gold is practically the only thing he’s not won in his two decades in the sport.
However, The Reem actually winning the UFC title is sadly a pipe dream at this point. A win over Volkov, though, is definitely a possibility despite his advanced age.
Volkov enjoyed a mixed 2020, losing to Blaydes before defeating Walt Harris, a man who coincidentally, also fell to Overeem last year.
Both of these fighters are primarily strikers. At 6’7”, Volkov is one of the tallest men in the division, and he fights like a tall man too, all teep kicks and long jabs from distance. For once, the 6’4” Overeem will be at a disadvantage when it comes to length, even if both men reportedly have an 80” reach.
However, Overeem is by far the more varied striker. Sure, he’s capable of sniping from distance, but he’s perhaps the most effective clinch striker in the UFC’s Heavyweight division. His knees from the inside are absolutely lethal, and whether they’re landing to the head or body doesn’t really matter.
More worrying for Volkov, though, is the fact that Overeem isn’t just a striker. While he’s not like Blaydes – who basically spammed takedowns until Volkov wilted – he’s more than capable of taking his opponents down.
And his UFC wins over Augusto Sakai, Stefan Struve, and Sergei Pavlovich all came on the ground, with The Reem unleashing some absolutely devastating blows from the top.
Overeem can obviously be beaten. He’s lost 18 times in his career, and seven of those losses have come in the UFC. However, he’s only ever been beaten by truly concussive punchers like Francis Ngannou, Miocic, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Is Volkov a heavy enough hitter to take out the Dutchman? Personally, I’m leaning towards no being the answer. He does have 21 knockouts to his name, but he’s also only finished three opponents in the UFC, and all of them came after plenty of punishment rather than in one-hit fashion.
Overall, the styles seem to favor Overeem here, whether it involves him taking the fight to Volkov in the clinch or – more likely – taking him down to deliver a beating. He might not be UFC champion material now, but I think The Reem wins this fight.
The Pick: Overeem via third-round TKO
#2 UFC Bantamweight Division: Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
If the main event could decide the next challenger to the UFC Heavyweight title, so this fight could decide the next challenger for the UFC Bantamweight title. Champion Petr Yan is set to defend against Aljamain Sterling in March, but after that? One of these two could definitely step up.
Of the two, Sandhagen is certainly the more proven in this division. Arriving in the UFC in 2018, The Sandman has been almost perfect. He’s picked up six wins and has only ever lost to Sterling, who realistically is probably the best 135lber on the planet right now.
A striker by trade, Sandhagen is a product of the famed Elevation Fight Team, and he’s gone toe-to-toe with the likes of John Lineker, Raphael Assuncao, and Marlon Moraes in his UFC tenure, beating them all.
His win over Moraes was clearly his best to date, as the former UFC title challenger was felled in the second round with a spectacular spinning wheel kick.
Sandhagen isn’t just a striker, though. He’s also a solid grappler with three submission wins to his name and has survived the dangerous Iuri Alcantara on the ground in his second UFC fight.
Edgar’s game doesn’t need breaking down now. A veteran of the UFC since 2007, the former UFC Lightweight champion is one of the few surviving ‘wrestleboxers’ who were so common at the turn of the last decade.
The Answer has outlasted the likes of Tyson Griffin and Gilbert Melendez, though, primarily because his game wasn’t as straightforward as theirs. Sure, he’s a wrestleboxer, but his footwork, movement, and ability to both avoid big shots and to absorb them has always been superior to his contemporaries.
But Edgar is now 39 years old. And while he defeated Pedro Munhoz in his debut at 135lbs, it was a remarkably close fight that could’ve gone either way.
Edgar’s problems at 135lbs are likely to be two-fold. Firstly, at his advanced age, he’s no longer as quick as he once was and can no longer take the kind of shots that he could in his youth.
And more to the point, the speed advantage that served him so well at Lightweight isn’t as telling at Bantamweight. And that should be worrying for him here.
Sandhagen hits far harder than Munhoz, and it’s arguable that The Sandman is quicker than the Brazilian, too.
Edgar is a great fighter and should definitely go into the UFC’s Hall of Fame at some point, but the truth is that his best days are behind him. Sandhagen meanwhile, is in his prime, and so I suspect he’ll run through Edgar here to cement himself as a top contender in the division.
The Pick: Sandhagen via first-round TKO
#3 The Main Card: UFC on ESPN+ card
This weekend’s main card sees a further four fights on offer. In the Women’s Bantamweight division, Marion Reneau faces Macy Chiasson.
This is an interesting fight as it offers TUF winner Chiasson her toughest test to date. Reneau is a great athlete with skills in all areas, and she’s definitely got the ability to test Chiasson.
However, The Belizean Bruiser is also 43 years old now and hasn’t won a fight since 2018, losing three in a row. Add in Chiasson’s 4” reach advantage, and I think Reneau is in trouble here. Chiasson via decision is the pick.
In the Flyweight division, Alexandre Pantoja takes on Manel Kape. A native of Angola, Kape is making his UFC debut here following a run in Japan’s Rizin promotion. His 15-4 ledger is outstanding, and judging from available footage. He’s an absolutely excellent striker.
That aggressive style should make for a fun fight here, but the UFC newcomer may be in over his head with Pantoja.
The Cannibal is perhaps best seen as a lesser version of current UFC Flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Like Figueiredo, he’s absolutely deadly in all areas and can finish on both the feet and ground. Essentially, he’s only missing the raw power and athleticism of the champion.
Kape may go onto make some noise in the UFC in the future, but this sounds like an awful debut match for him. Pantoja via decision is the pick.
In the Bantamweight division, Cody Stamann battles Andre Ewell. This one should be fun as neither man tends to put on boring fights, even if they don’t always pick up finishes.
Of the two, Stamann should probably be favored here. A hard-as-nails wrestler with an excellent boxing game, The Spartan has only lost twice in the UFC, to Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. And his grinding style has taken him past five foes.
Ewell is an excellent, well-rounded fighter in his own right, but he lacks the grappling strength and toughness of Stamann, so I’m going to take The Spartan to win here by decision.
Finally, Diego Ferreira faces Beneil Dariush in a rematch of their clash at UFC 179 in 2014. That fight saw Dariush comfortably grapple his way to a win, but can he recreate that here?
Both men have improved in the years that have followed. Always a dangerous finisher, Ferreira is more well-rounded now and is much more capable on the ground. Meanwhile, Dariush has developed a heavy striking game under Rafael Cordeiro and has picked up a number of KO wins since.
This one is tight to call, but Ferreira has been slightly more impressive recently, so I’m going to take him via TKO.
#4 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
Picks in bold
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida
Mike Rodriguez vs. Danilo Marques
Molly McCann vs. Lara Procopio
Seung Woo Choi vs. Youssef Zalal
Karol Rosa vs. Joselyne Edwards
Denys Bondar vs. Ode Osborne
Martin Day vs. Timur Valiev
