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This weekend sees the UFC return to its APEX Center for UFC Vegas 24: Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum.
Overall, UFC Vegas 24 looks like an excellent card, with plenty of fun-sounding fights to pique the interest of fans across the globe.
Without further ado, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 24: Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum.
#1 UFC Middleweight division: Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
For those who’ve forgotten, this fight was pegged to be the main event of UFC 234 back in February 2019, with Whittaker’s UFC Middleweight title on the line.
Of course, plenty has changed since then. When Whittaker was sidelined with injury, Israel Adesanya ended up defeating Gastelum for an interim title and then claimed the real thing from Whittaker a few months later.
Both men are now looking to rebound and put themselves in line for another crack at The Last Stylebender, but which one will do it?
Of the two, it’s clear that Whittaker’s been on better form. He looked excellent in 2020, picking apart Darren Till and Jared Cannonier to prove that he’s probably still the biggest threat to Adesanya in the UFC.
Gastelum, meanwhile, looked to be in trouble after following his Adesanya loss with back-to-back defeats to Till and Jack Hermansson.
A win over Ian Henisch righted his ship somewhat, but a loss to Whittaker here would probably end his hopes of UFC title contention at Middleweight for good.
Like their initial booking at UFC 234, this remains an intriguing match. Both men are incredibly tough and can weather serious punishment, and both can dish it out, too.
However, Whittaker remains the more nuanced striker. Gastelum can definitely box well, but he’s still more of a clubbing puncher than the cleaner Reaper, who is also highly adept at breaking a foe down with his kicks.
And while Gastelum is an excellent wrestler who has shrugged off takedowns from even better grapplers, Whittaker has arguably the best takedown defense we’ve ever seen at Middleweight.
Even Olympic wrestler – and physical freak – Yoel Romero was unable to take him down in their two clashes.
Given that probably due to his lengthy time off, The Reaper no longer looks as vulnerable as he did a couple of years ago, this fight seems to favor him heavily.
Can Whittaker finish Gastelum? The honest answer is probably no, as Adesanya threw an insane amount at him and couldn’t put him away. But it’s highly likely that The Reaper will pick him apart en route to another impressive decision, netting himself a title shot in the process.
The Pick: Whittaker via unanimous decision
#2 UFC Lightweight division: Jeremy Stephens vs. Drakkar Klose
This co-main event will be the first visit to the UFC Lightweight division for Jeremy Stephens since 2012, incredibly enough.
It’ll also mark the 35th time Lil Heathen has stepped into the Octagon, making him one of the most tenured veterans in UFC history.
So can he mark his return to 155lbs with a win? Or will Klose – who has basically tipped over the threshold from prospect to journeyman at this point – be able to hand him his fifth loss in six fights and perhaps his pink slip?
Stephens is a tricky fighter to get a handle on these days. A notable power puncher with numerous KO’s on his ledger, he’s also a good striker from a technical standpoint, as we’ve seen in his fights with the likes of Gilbert Melendez and Renan Barao.
Lil Heathen is also a decent enough wrestler as well as a solid grappler. So why has he never really risen into UFC title contention?
Essentially, he’s always been wildly inconsistent, capable of brilliance one minute but also more than capable of putting on a bad showing – as he did against Charles Oliveira and Cub Swanson – the next.
It’s also tricky to work out exactly what he’s got to offer at 155lbs. Sure, he lost his last three fights there, but there was no shame in losing to Anthony Pettis or Donald Cerrone in 2012. And he admittedly had personal problems leading into his loss to Yves Edwards.
Perhaps the biggest issue for him is his waning durability. He didn’t look nearly as tough as he did in his prime in his recent losses to Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez. And the fact that he’s been in the UFC for well over a decade now is alarming.
Klose, meanwhile, came into the UFC in 2017 with a reputation as a wrestler, but his striking earned him his first two wins as he beat Devin Powell and Marc Diakiese.
A loss to David Teymur exposed him somewhat, though – he couldn’t get his wrestling going and the Swedish kickboxer made his striking look crude. And while he’s picked up three wins since, his 2020 loss to Beneil Dariush was a bad one for him as he basically got clobbered by the grappler despite having him stunned early on.
However, on paper, at least, Klose seems like a bad match for Stephens.
He should have a size advantage, and Stephens has struggled before against fighters with decent takedowns that didn’t fear him standing, which, theoretically, Klose shouldn’t.
If Stephens can land one of his big power punches, however, then judging by the Dariush fight, Klose may well be in trouble.
But if that haymaker can’t land, then there’s no reason why Klose can’t outwork Lil Heathen or even take advantage of his fading durability to land a late TKO.
The Pick: Klose via unanimous decision
#3 UFC Vegas 24: The Main Card
UFC Vegas 24 will also feature another four fights on its main card.
In a Heavyweight clash, former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski faces Chase Sherman. Despite being on the wrong side of 40, Arlovski keeps on ticking, and this actually looks like a favorable fight for him.
The Pitbull has lost his fair share of fights in recent years, but his quick hands, underrated chin and overall striking skills make him a tricky fight for more plodding fighters. Sherman fits that mold and also doesn’t possess the best chin. Therefore Arlovski via TKO is the pick.
At Middleweight, Abdul Razak Alhassan takes on Jacob Malkoun. Alhassan is the definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and he was violently knocked out in his last visit to the Octagon.
However, this looks like a better match for him. Malkoun is just 4-1 in MMA and showed nothing in his UFC debut, a quick KO loss to Phil Hawes. Alhassan by KO is the pick here.
In the Lightweight division, Luis Pena – AKA Violent Bob Ross – takes on Alexander Munoz. Pena hasn’t quite shone as he was expected to when he debuted in the UFC in 2018, but he’s still a dangerous fighter with skills in all areas.
His sheer size should make him a tricky match for Munoz here, and given Munoz hasn’t really shown a lot yet, the pick is Pena via decision.
Finally, Ricardo Ramos faces Bill Algeo in a Bantamweight clash. Ramos is probably one of the more underrated fighters in the division, although he suffered a bad KO loss to Lerone Murphy last time.
Algeo, meanwhile, is less well-known but has looked good in the UFC and is dropping to 135lbs for the first time.
This one could go either way, but Algeo using his grappling to grind out a decision seems like the best bet.
#4 UFC Vegas 24: Preliminary bouts
Picks in bold
UFC Flyweight division: Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish
UFC Heavyweight division: Alexander Romanov vs. Juan Espino
UFC Strawweight division: Jessica Penne vs. Lupita Godinez
UFC Middleweight division: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bartosz Fabinski
UFC Bantamweight division: Zarah Fairn Dos Santos vs. Josiane Nunes
UFC Bantamweight division: Tony Gravely vs. Anthony Birchak
