UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 26: Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez Predictions & Picks

Michelle Waterson faces off with Marina Rodriguez in this weekend's UFC main event
Michelle Waterson faces off with Marina Rodriguez in this weekend's UFC main event

#2 UFC Welterweight division: Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal

Geoff Neal will be looking for a knockout when he faces Neil Magny this weekend
Geoff Neal will be looking for a knockout when he faces Neil Magny this weekend

Both of these men are coming off losses in their last UFC bout, but they’re still very relevant to the UFC’s welterweight division.

Geoff Neal looked like one of the quickest-rising prospects in the division before veteran Stephen Thompson derailed him at UFC Vegas 17 on December 19, 2020.

Magny meanwhile returned to action in March 2020 following a USADA suspension and settled right back into his role as an ultra-tough gatekeeper. He won three bouts before falling to high-ranked grappler Michael Chiesa at 'UFC on ESPN 20' in January 2021.

Basically, then, this one should come down to a simple question: can Magny avoid Neal’s thunderous striking and outwork him for a decision or late victory? Or will he become another knockout victim of 'Handz of Steel'?

Despite looking excellent since his 2020 return, Neil Magny largely remains the same fighter he’s always been since he made huge improvements about five years ago.

'The Haitian Sensation' has a huge frame for a welterweight, standing at 6’3” and boasting an 80-inch reach. He looks to use this to the best of his ability on the feet, usually attempting to sit behind a jab to work over his opponents.

Magny is also a stout wrestler capable of taking most opponents down, and on the ground, he has an excellent top game with solid ground and pound.

However, he’s not an expert in any single area – meaning that he does tend to struggle when he fights specialists.

And those specialists – grapplers like Michael Chiesa and Demian Maia or strikers like Lorenz Larkin and Santiago Ponzinibbio – account for basically all of his seven UFC losses.

Worryingly for him here, Geoff Neal is very much a specialist. 'Handz of Steel' is at a disadvantage when it comes to reach, but he’s quicker than Magny, hits a lot harder, and is a far more explosive athlete too.

Stephen Thompson proved that Neal can’t simply walk in and knock anyone out, but then 'Wonderboy' is a unique striker, and Magny can’t hope to replicate the kind of gameplan that he used.

Magny’s best bet would be to look to ground Neal and wear him out. Still, given that Belal Muhammad – arguably a superior wrestler – was unable to do that, the likelihood is that 'The Haitian Sensation' is in trouble.

Magny hasn’t been knocked out since his 2018 loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC Fight Night 140, but a betting man would probably expect it to happen here.

The Pick: Geoff Neal via first-round KO

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Edited by Avinash Tewari