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The UFC is back in its APEX facility again this weekend for UFC Vegas 30: Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov. UFC Vegas 30 features a major heavyweight main event as well as a number of other intriguing contests on the card.
On that note, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 30: Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov.
#1 UFC heavyweight division: Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov
With the next UFC heavyweight title fight looking likely to be between champion Francis Ngannou and challenger Derrick Lewis, and Jon Jones still on the outside looking in, there’s every chance that the winner of this one gets the next title shot.
That alone makes it a huge fight, but it’s also huge in a literal sense. Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov are amongst the biggest fighters on the UFC roster, with Gane standing at 6' 5” and weighing around 250 lbs, while Volkov is 6' 7” and 265 lbs.
With both men on strong runs; Gane undefeated in the UFC at 5-0 and Volkov 3-1 since the start of 2019, their fight could be an intriguing one. Perhaps the most interesting thing here could be how Gane deals with a taller opponent for the first time in the UFC.
The Frenchman does have a slight reach advantage – 81” to 80” – but that obviously doesn’t take the leg length into account, and Volkov is definitely adept in keeping a foe at the end of his jabs and front kicks. Add in Volkov’s somewhat underrated ground game and takedowns, and on paper at least, this does sound like a potentially tricky match for Bon Gamin.
However, it’s hard to oversell quite how good a striker Gane has proven himself to be thus far in the UFC. A veteran of countless Muay Thai bouts, Gane is dangerous from literally any position inside the octagon.
He showed he could use smart footwork, pressing and angles to beat a similarly credentialed kickboxer in his recent fight with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has also 'abused' the likes of Tanner Boser and Junior Dos Santos from the clinch.
More to the point, the Frenchman is no mug on the ground either. He’s the only UFC heavyweight since 2009 to land a heel-hook submission, and he has also shown that he has strong takedowns and decent top control, too.
Volkov is an excellent fighter in his own right. But despite his lanky physique, he’s also quite plodding inside the octagon, which is a major contrast to Gane’s more explosive nature.
Overall, there’s definitely a chance that Volkov could win this fight. He’s capable of keeping an opponent at bay; he does have knockout power in his hands, and in heavyweight, anything can happen.
However, Drago likely doesn’t bring anything in terms of a striking game that Gane hasn’t seen before. So the Frenchman should hold a major advantage in terms of speed.
Therefore, it’s likely that Gane could use the first round or two to gauge the distance and then catch Volkov with something nasty and put him away, setting himself up for a UFC title shot in the process.
The Pick: Gane via third round TKO.
#2 UFC heavyweight division: Ovince St. Preux vs Tanner Boser
Quite why longtime UFC veteran Ovince St. Preux is moving back up to heavyweight, is anyone’s guess. A contender for nearly a decade at 205 lbs, OSP moved to heavyweight in 2020 for the first time and lost a pretty poor fight to Ben Rothwell.
This time, he will face off with Tanner Boser, who’s desperate for a win of his own following two straight octagon losses. Would OSP be able to pull this one-off?
Firstly, it’s worth noting that this will be Boser’s second fight in just four weeks. He fought on June 5th against Ilir Latifi, losing a pretty plodding decision in what was a disappointing showing from him.
The loss followed a defeat to Andrei Arlovski in what was a better performance. Boser clearly lost to the former UFC champion but did have some success and showed some decent striking chops in the process.
In fact, Boser’s hands have looked excellent since the start of 2020. After a loss to Ciryl Gane, the Canadian got into much better shape and destroyed Philipe Lins and Raphael Pessoa with remarkable hand speed to take his UFC record at the time to 3-1.
St. Preux, meanwhile, has shown a worrying downturn in form in recent years. He has gone 2-4 in his last six fights, and even his two wins came with caveats. He was beaten down by Michal Oleksiejczuk before the Pole gassed out, and St. Preux caught Alonzo Menifield by surprise with a KO shot.
The worrying thing for OSP here is that his chin appeared to be deteriorating in his most recent fight – a KO loss to Jamahal Hill. While he’d expect to have a speed advantage at heavyweight, that might not ring true against a fighter with hands as fast as Boser’s.
There’s a chance that OSP could use his experience to wear Boser down for a decision or a potential late submission. But the more likely result here seems to be Boser surprising OSP with his hand speed and unleashing a quick combination on him for a knockout.
The Pick: Boser via first-round knockout.
#3 UFC Vegas 30: The Main Card
In a light-heavyweight clash, Kennedy Nzechukwu faces Danilo Marques. This is a relatively late-notice fight for Nzechukwu, as Marques was initially pegged to fight the injured Ed Herman.
This looks like a good fight for the Brazilian, too. Nzechukwu has power in his hands, but his takedown defense and submission defense have been questionable, and Marques is quite a grappler. Therefore the pick is Marques via submission.
In a featherweight bout, Andre Fili takes on Daniel Pineda. This promises to be a barnburner, as both men are dangerous in all areas and are aggressive to a fault. The pick, however, is Fili. That's because Touchy is more durable, is slightly bigger, and appears to have stronger grappling skills.
Finally, in a lightweight bout, Renato Moicano takes on Jai Herbert. This should be a striker vs grappler affair, as Moicano is a dangerous grappler. While he does have solid striking, Moicano is not too durable, though.
Herbert, meanwhile, is a dangerous kickboxer. But there are plenty of questions around him on the ground, literally because we’ve never really seen him fighting there. Based on Moicano’s questionable chin and smaller size for 155 lbs, the pick is Herbert via TKO.
UFC Vegas 30: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight division: Raoni Barcelos vs Timur Valiev.
UFC welterweight division: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Michel Prazeres.
UFC welterweight division: Tim Means vs Nicolas Dalby.
UFC light-heavyweight division: Marcin Prachnio vs Ike Villanueva.
UFC bantamweight division: Julia Avila vs Julija Stoliarenko.
UFC featherweight division: Charles Rosa vs Justin Jaynes.
UFC lightweight division: Yancy Medeiros vs Damir Hadzovic.
UFC flyweight bout: Su Mudaerji vs Tim Elliott.
